AL Cy Young Award 2010 Predictions: Ranking the Top 10 and Picking a Winner

We're about to present a slideshow in which we analyze the voting for the 2010 American League Cy Young Award. We're going to look at 10 Cy Young Award candidates and analyze them along several lines, i.e. how much run support each one got, how well each player kept the ball in the yard, how hurt by his home park each one was.

But at the end of the day, none of this matters, because really all we want to know is the answer to this one question: Is this the year? Will this be the historic year in which the Baseball Writers Association of America does the correct thing and gives the Cy Young Award to the best pitcher in his league, without regard for his win-loss record?

Put another way: Will Felix Hernandez win the 2010 American League Cy Young Award?

Let's have a look.

10. Wins: CC Sabathia, New York Yankees

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NEW YORK - OCTOBER 20: CC Sabathia #52 of the New York Yankees reacts after he struck out Mitch Moreland #18 of the Texas Rangers to end the top of the sixth inning of Game Five of the ALCS during the 2010 MLB Playoffs at Yankee Stadium on October 20, 20

In the all important (sarcasm) Wins category, CC Sabathia of the New York Yankees came out on top in the AL this season with 21 wins and, more importantly (again, sarcasm) was the only pitcher to win more than 20 games.

Could this sway the Cy Young Voters?

1. CC Sabathia: 21

2. David Price: 19

2. Jon Lester: 19

4. Trevor Cahill: 18

4. Justin Verlander: 18

4. Phil Hughes: 18

7. Clay Buchholz: 17

7. Carl Pavano: 17

7. Ervin Santana: 17

10. C.J. Wilson: 15

10. Gio Gonzalez: 15

10. John Danks: 15

10. Matt Garza: 15

10. Brett Cecil: 15

9. Strikeouts: Jered Weaver, Los Angeles Angels Of Anaheim

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ARLINGTON, TX - OCTOBER 01: Pitcher Jered Weaver #36 of the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim reacts after called for a balk against the Texas Rangers at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington on October 1, 2010 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty I

All sarcasm aside, you know what might really hurt Felix Hernandez? That he did not lead the AL in strikeouts this season. He led the league for most of the season, but was overtaken by Jered Weaver down the stretch. Could the league-leader happy voters be swayed by the lack of black ink in the strikeout column?

1. Jered Weaver: 233

2. Felix Hernandez: 232

3. Jon Lester: 225

4. Justin Verlander: 219

5. Francisco Liriano: 201

6. CC Sabathia: 197

7. Colby Lewis: 196

8. David Price: 188

9. James Shields: 187

10. Cliff Lee: 185

8. ERA: Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners

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SEATTLE - SEPTEMBER 15: Pitcher Felix Hernandez #34 of the Seattle Mariners looks on during batting practice prior to the game against the Boston Red Sox at Safeco Field on September 15, 2010 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Otto Greule Jr/Getty Images

By now we've taken the stance that Felix Hernandez is the best pitcher in the AL, or at least was in 2010, what we're about to say will hurt his candidacy: ERA ain't worth all that much. ERA can be adversely impacted by team defense, ballpark, and other factors. Nevertheless, voters look at ERA, so we will too.

Just to stay honest, we'll include ERA+ numbers in parentheses:

1. Felix Hernandez: 2.27 (174)

2. Clay Buchholz: 2.33 (187)

3. David Price: 2.72 (145)

4. Trevor Cahill: 2.97 (139)

5. Jered Weaver: 3.01 (135)

6. Cliff Lee: 3.18 (130)

6. CC Sabathia: 3.18 (134)

8. Gio Gonzalez: 3.23 (128)

9. Jon Lester: 3.25 (134)

10. C.J. Wilson: 3.35 (129)

7. Run Support: Phil Hughes, New York Yankees

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ARLINGTON, TX - OCTOBER 22: Phil Hughes #65 of the New York Yankees walks on the field during Game Six of the ALCS against the Texas Rangers in the 2010 MLB Playoffs at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington on October 22, 2010 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Ste

Not surprisingly, the AL leader in run support average was a New York Yankee, Phil Hughes, with a simply shocking 9.60 runs per nine innings. Here's a look at the top five, followed by other notables:

1. Phil Hughes: 9.60

2. Brett Cecil: 7.97

3. Jeremy Bonderman: 7.74

4. Wade Davis: 7.66

5. Jeff Niemann: 7.64

7. CC Sabathia: 7.31

9. Francisco Liriano: 7.14

12. David Price: 7.03

14. Jon Lester: 6.88

15. Justin Verlander: 6.86

17. Clay Buchholz: 6.79

18. C.J. Wilson: 6.66

34. Jered Weaver: 5.22

36. Cliff Lee: 5.09

43 (and last): Felix Hernandez: 3.75

6. Strikeouts Per Nine Innings: Jon Lester, Boston Red Sox

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SEATTLE - SEPTEMBER 13: Starter Jon Lester #31 of the Boston Red Sox pitches against the Seattle Mariners at Safeco Field on September 13, 2010 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Otto Greule Jr/Getty Images)

When one pitcher is clearly the elite strikeout pitcher in the league—the Nolan Ryans, Rube Waddells, and Johnsons Randy and Walter—strikeouts per nine innings can be a superfluous statistic.

But in years such as this, with no clear dominator, we need strikeouts-per-nine innings to tell us who is really mowing guys down.

1. Jon Lester:   9.7

2. Francisco Liriano:   9.4

3. Jered Weaver:   9.3

4. Justin Verlander:   8.8

5. Colby Lewis:   8.8

6. Max Scherzer:   8.5

7. Felix Hernandez:   8.4

8. James Shields:   8.3

9. David Price:   8.1

10. Cliff Lee:   7.8  

5. Going Deep Into The Game: Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners

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CHICAGO - JULY 26: Starting pitcher Felix Hernandez #34 of the Seattle Mariners delivers the ball against the Chicago White Sox at U.S. Cellular Field on July 26, 2010 in Chicago, Illinois. The White Sox defeated the Mariners 6-1. (Photo by Jonathan Danie

Quality starts are a good indicator of a pitcher's value, in that they measure the ability to go deep into a game without giving up tons of runs, though it is reliant upon the team defense to an extent. We'll rate our pitchers by Quality Start percentage, which is the ratio of quality starts to games started overall.

1.   Felix Hernandez:   0.88

2.   David Price: 0.81

3.   Jered Weaver:   0.79

4.   CC Sabathia:   0.76

5.   Trevor Cahill:   0.70

6.   Gio Gonzalez:   0.70

7.   Clay Buchholz:   0.68

8.   Jason Vargas:   0.68

9.   Justin Verlander:   0.67

9.   Fausto Carmona:   0.67

4. Innings Pitched: Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners

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SEATTLE - JULY 10: Starting pitcher Felix Hernandez #34 of the Seattle Mariners walks to the dugout during the game against the New York Yankees at Safeco Field on July 10, 2010 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Otto Greule Jr/Getty Images)

Last year I wrote an article for baseballevolution.com in which I suggested a new pitching Triple Crown paradigm that focused not on wins, ERA, and strikeouts, but rather on innings pitched, defense independent ERA, and strikeouts to walk ratio, as these three stats were more indicative of a pitcher's success than the conventional Triple Crown analysis.

Here is your top 10 innings pitched list for the AL:

1. Felix Hernandez 249.2

2. CC Sabathia 237.2

3. Jered Weaver 224.1

3. Justin Verlander 224.1

5. Ervin Santana 222.2

6. Carl Pavano 221.0

7. Zack Greinke 220.0

8. John Lackey 215.0

9. John Danks 213.0

10. Cliff Lee 212.1  

3. Strikeout-To-Walk Ratio: Cliff Lee, Seattle Mariners/Texas Rangers

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ARLINGTON, TX - NOVEMBER 01: Starting pitcher Cliff Lee #33 of the Texas Rangers pitches against the San Francisco Giants in Game Five of the 2010 MLB World Series at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington on November 1, 2010 in Arlington, Texas. The Giants won 3

While strikeouts are a telling stat, two other strikeout-based stats are more revealing: strikeouts per nine innings, and strikeout-to-walk ratio.

Here's the K/BB leaders:

1. Cliff Lee: 10.28 (!!!)

2. Jered Weaver: 4.31

3. Shaun Marcum: 3.84

4. James Shields: 3.67

5. Francisco Liriano: 3.47

6. Scott Baker: 3.44

7. Felix Hernandez: 3.31

8. Zack Greinke: 3.29

9. Carl Pavano: 3.16

10. Justin Verlander: 3.08

2. Defense Independent Statistics: Cliff Lee, Seattle Mariners/Texas Rangers

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ARLINGTON, TX - NOVEMBER 01: Cliff Lee #33 of the Texas Rangers pitches against the San Francisco Giants in Game Five of the 2010 MLB World Series at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington on November 1, 2010 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Doug Pensinger/Getty I

Defense independent statistics take away the impact of the players (other than the catcher) on a pitcher's performance, and measure him by the only three things that he exclusively controls: strikeouts, walks and home runs. DIPS or FIP eliminate the non-pitcher attributes of ERA.

For our analysis we use numbers provided by Fangraphs.com:

1. Cliff Lee 2.58

2. Francisco Liriano 2.66

3. Justin Verlander 2.97

4. Felix Hernandez 3.04

5. Jered Weaver 3.06

6. Jon Lester 3.13

7. Zack Greinke 3.34

8. David Price 3.43

9. Gavin Floyd 3.46

10. CC Sabathia 3.54  

1. Pitcher's War: Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners

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SEATTLE - JULY 08: Pitcher Felix Hernandez #34 of the Seattle Mariners heads to the dugout during batting practice prior to the game against the New York Yankees at Safeco Field on July 8, 2010 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Otto Greule Jr/Getty Image

We would never encourage anyone to look only at a single stat as the best indicator of a player's value. Nevertheless, WAR is a useful stat and we have it, so we may as well use it.

1. Felix Hernandez:   6.0

2. Clay Buchholz:   5.4

3. CC Sabathia: 5.4

4. Jered Weaver: 5.4

5. David Price: 5.3

6. Jon Lester: 5.0

7. John Danks: 4.9

8. Francisco Liriano: 4.6

9. Carl Pavano: 4.6

10. C.J. Wilson: 4.6  

At The End Of The Day: Felix Hernandez, Or...

Otto Greule Jr/Getty Images

SEATTLE - JUNE 04: Pitcher Felix Hernandez #34 of the Seattle Mariners looks on during batting practice prior to the game against the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim at Safeco Field on June 4, 2010 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Otto Greule Jr/Getty Ima

Look, at the end of the day we can be idealists and be practical, right?

If you were fielding a baseball team in 2010 and could start with any American League pitcher, you'd go with Felix Hernandez. Anyone who says different is a lying Yankees, Red Sox or Rays fan.

The second player you'd probably go with, having seen here what we've seen, would have to be Cliff Lee. After that, it is probably a mash-up between Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, and maybe Francisco Liriano. And if you're a fan of David Price or CC Sabathia, you have to be disappointed by what you've seen here.

We can honestly say that if Hernandez or Lee wins the 2010 AL Cy Young, we will be thrilled, but if they do not, we live to fight another day.

But if at the end of the day the 2010 AL Cy Young does not go to Hernandez, Lee, Lester, Buchholz, or Liriano, and instead goes to CC Sabathia, well, it will have been a travesty in the first degree.