Michigan-Illinois Preview: Wolverines Aim for Bowl Eligibility Against Illini

Time: High Noon
Location: Big House
TV: ESPN
Line: Illinois +3
Weather: 43/30 Partly Cloudy

Sometimes Vegas lines make you scratch your head and say, "Are you kidding me!" It's like an invitation for a non-gambler to find a sports book online and put down this month's mortgage on the game. The Michigan-Illinois game seems like the one game to jump on. Michigan is favored by three points.

This line reminds me of when Oregon came to town and Mike Hart had a bad ankle after the App. State disaster and Michigan was favored. We all remember what happened in that game.

Let's take a quick look at some common opponents

Both teams lost to MSU. Michigan lost 34-17; Illinois lost 26-6.

Both teams beat IU: Michigan 42-35, Illinois 43-13.

Illinois beat Penn State (in Happy Valley) 33-13; Michigan lost in Happy Valley 41-31.

What does that tell us?

Michigan sure does have a way of making offenses look good. Ron Zook and company held IU to 13 points; Michigan couldn't hold them under 30. Illinois beat Penn State on the road when their first string QB was playing; Michigan got lit up by their backup. Those are terrible signs for this game.


Tale of the Tape

Michigan Offense vs. Illinois D = Advantage Blue

Michigan should be able to score points against this improving defense.

Illinois Offensive vs. Michigan D = Sad Panda

Michigan's defense showed up in Ann Arbor last Saturday night for a game in Happy Valley. It was maybe the worst showing of a Michigan defense since before Fritz Crisler roamed the sideline. Now, Michigan's only experienced corner is out for the year after hurting his ankle in practice this week. That means former HS QB Courtney Avery will be filling his shoes and hopefully covering WRs and not looking to pass to them.

Special Teams = Advantage Zook

Michigan seemed to have worked out the kickoff issues, but their last decent return was in 2009. Michigan's field goal kicking is very suspect, but he did make one last game! If Michigan can catch the ball, not fumble, make a field goal and all the extra points, then that is a small win for the Maize and Blue.

Intangibles = Push

There isn't a team that needs a victory more than Michigan, and Illinois is improving every week. This is a classic matchup of Hot vs. Cold. "How desperate are the Wolverines?" is the question of the day.

Illinois is not afraid of this Michigan team at all. Two years ago they won in the Big House. Last year, with me in the stands, Roy Roundtree looked to have scored on a long slant play but was called down on the one. Michigan couldn't get it in the end zone, and Illinois took over the game. Those plays cost Michigan the game and a trip to a bowl game.

Sing Hail to the Victors if...

• Denard Robinson is healthy the entire game.
• Michigan mixes the run and pass to keep Illinois off balance.
• Michigan doesn't turn the ball over on offense.
• The Michigan D can get a handful of stops (maybe some field goals?).
• The Michigan D can pick up a fumble or pick (haven't had one since IU game).
• Michigan doesn't spot Zook 30 points before they decide to play.

Say "I thought it was supposed to be Zook's year to get fired" if...

• Michigan's defense is, well, Michigan's defense from the PSU game.
• Michigan doesn't grab a quick lead in the shootout.
• Illinois scores touchdowns instead of field goals.
• Michigan only has nine offensive possessions.
• Courtney Avery looks like a QB playing corner.

Michigan hasn't kept a Big Ten team under 30 points this entire year. IU 35, MSU 34, Iowa 38, PSU 41—what makes you think they will keep Illinois under 30? Nothing.

Illinois has a young mobile QB, and they will attack Michigan's defense in a similar way that Michigan will attack Illinois. There will be a number of QB read draws, handoffs to the running backs and seven- to 15-yard throws. This is the exact formula that has been beating Michigan the last three games. The only difference is this QB is mobile and we have a true freshman starting at corner that was a QB last year.

Can Michigan win this game? Sure, if they get some stops on defense—which in my mind means turnovers, punts and field goals. This team needs to play desperate football because their season is at stake. Rich Rodriguez can't waste offensive possessions, and there need to be some fourth down gambles.

Michigan has to pretty much be able to score on every drive. The Michigan offense just needs to protect the ball and score points in both halves. No more slow starts. As for the defense, who the hell knows? Maybe a blind squirrel will find a nut in this game. Or maybe Illinois is just the better all-around team right now. Illinois 34, Michigan 28.

Dear Karma,

Thank you for the relief this week with the NCAA. Us Michigan fans needed some good news. I appreciate you throwing us a bone after the J.T. Floyd injury. That really helped round off a not so good week.  

I don't want to sound ungrateful, but I need a favor. Michigan has five wins right now and needs at least one more win to be bowl eligible. As you might understand, I'm not asking for a holiday trip to Texas, Florida or even downtown Detroit. I'm asking because the kids on this team deserve it.

I'm asking for Denard and the hours he put in over the summer to get better. I am asking for David Molk, who would rather walk on broken glass than take another loss. I am asking for Troy Woolfolk, who hurt his ankle in the preseason and has never seen the field this year.

These kids have worked hard for a couple of years, and the most exciting place they have visited is Iowa City; as you might imagine, Karma, that's not a very exciting city.

Not only do they deserve a reward, but they also need two more weeks of practice. They have lost a month's worth of practices the last two years and really need the time to help them learn the positions and just to be a better football team.

So here is the ask: Can we please have two wins the next two weeks? Yes, I know about Greg Robinson and the defense. Yes, I understand how hard that will be, but if you remember you granted a similar wish a couple years ago against Minnesota for the Little Brown Jug. That is the request I put forward to you.  

Thank you for listening, and I will look for your answer on Saturday at about 3:30.

Yours truly,

BigHouse Bob