NFL Picks Against the Spread Week 9: Buffalo Bills and Dallas Cowboys To Cover

Last weeks against the spread record: 4-5

Overall against the spread record: 39-22 (64%)

Last week was the first week of the season I had a losing record picking games against the spread.

Bummer.

My goal of hitting 70 percent is still well within reach with eight more weeks of football to go and a great lineup of games heading into this weekend.

Of the 13 games this week, I have seven picked against the spread, and I am more than confident that I will not have a second straight losing week.

Here are the spreads for each Week 9 game.

Chicago at Buffalo: Chicago -3

San Diego at Houston: San Diego -3

New Orleans at Carolina: New Orleans -6.5

Arizona at Minnesota: Minnesota -9

Tampa Bay at Atlanta: Atlanta -8.5

NY Jets at Detroit: NY Jets -4

Miami at Baltimore: Baltimore -5.5

New England at Cleveland: New England -4.5

NY Giants at Seattle: NY Giants -6.5

Kansas City at Oakland: Oakland -2.5

Indianapolis at Philadelphia: Philadelphia -3

Dallas at Green Bay: Green Bay -8

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati: Pittsburgh -5

Chicago -3 at Buffalo

Rick Stewart/Getty Images

ORCHARD PARK, NY - OCTOBER 10: Ryan Fitzpatrick #14 of the Buffalo Bills looks to pass against the Jacksonville Jaguars at Ralph Wilson Stadium on October 10, 2010 in Orchard Park, New York. (Photo by Rick Stewart/Getty Images)

Let's get started off right with a big upset.

Buffalo is winless and the Bears look like a good team to help the Bills change that.

The Bills have been so close to a win in five games, including the last two where they lost in overtime to the Ravens and the Chiefs.

To put it quite frankly, they are due.

It's getting cold outside, and I have to expect the Bears to start hibernating sooner or later.

Maybe they aren't hibernating just yet and Chicago pulls it off, but I think Buffalo can still keep this close enough to cover if they don't upset for its first win of the season.

San Diego -3 at Houston

Andy Lyons/Getty Images

INDIANAPOLIS - NOVEMBER 01: Arian Foster #23 of Houston Texans runs with the ball during the NFL game against the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium on November 1, 2010 in Indianapolis, Indiana. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)

Houston is coming off a loss to the Colts and a short week, having played on Monday night. Still, I have to expect Houston to bounce back at home.

The Chargers are depleted on offense with too many injuries to make them as good as they could be.

But hey, I was wrong about San Diego last week against Tennessee so maybe I'm wrong again.

Quite frankly, I'm willing to take the chance and call Houston to cover at home or possibly even win straight up against the Chargers.

Tampa Bay +8.5 at Atlanta

J. Meric/Getty Images

TAMPA, FL - OCTOBER 24: Running back LeGarrette Blount #27 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers straight arms safety Oshiomogho Atogwe #21 of the St. Louis Rams during the game at Raymond James Stadium on October 24, 2010 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by J. Meric/Ge

This game might surprise some people.

These two teams will face off for sole possession of first place in the NFC South on Sunday, which has a lot of people scratching their heads about this division.

The Buccaneers and Falcons both are 5-2 and have proven their ability to win games.

So, who will advance to 6-2 with one of the best records in the NFL and a very high chance of making the playoffs just over halfway through the season?

Perhaps the home team Falcons will pull this one off as predicted, but I don't see it being by 8.5.

I'm taking the Bucs to cover at minimum.

Miami +5.5 at Baltimore

Rick Stewart/Getty Images

ORCHARD PARK, NY - SEPTEMBER 12: Chad Henne #7 of the Miami Dolphins readies to pass against the Buffalo Bills during the NFL season opener at Ralph Wilson Stadium on September 12, 2010 in Orchard Park, New York. Miami won 15-10. (Photo by Rick Stewart

To be honest, I have no clue how the Dolphins are as good as they are. When I sit back and look at the teams in the NFL, I definitely do not see the Dolphins as one of the more elite teams.

But they definitely have what it takes to beat teams like Green Bay and cover against Pittsburgh.

So, why not give them a shot against Baltimore?

Sure, Baltimore may still win this game, but don't be surprised when Miami covers or possibly wins straight up.

New England -4.5 at Cleveland

Chris Graythen/Getty Images

NEW ORLEANS - OCTOBER 24: Peyton Hillis #40 of the Cleveland Browns in action against the New Orleans Saints at the Louisiana Superdome on October 24, 2010 in New Orleans, Louisiana. (Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images)

I find this a little bit ironic really.

Vegas is giving a larger spread for the Miami at Baltimore game than they are for this one. Perhaps it's because Cleveland, believe it or not, can find a way to put up points.

I'm not taking anything away from the Patriots, but sometimes things happen in football you just can't logically explain.

I'm calling this as one of those times.

Take the Browns to cover at home and if you feel really frisky, bet on them to win straight up.

Indianapolis +3 at Philadelphia

Win McNamee/Getty Images

LANDOVER, MD - OCTOBER 17: Quarterback Peyton Manning #18 of the Indianapolis Colts throws a pass against the Washington Redskins at FedExField on October 17, 2010 in Landover, Maryland. (Photo by Win McNamee/Getty Images)

I know Michael Vick is returning this week and that definitely makes these Eagles a little bit more tricky to deal with.

And with DeSean Jackson likely back in the lineup, that makes it even worse for not just the Colts, but any opposing team.

Still, the Colts are the Colts and as long as you have No. 18 under center, you have a chance to win.

Even without Dallas Clark and Austin Collie, Peyton Manning was able to dissect the Texans pass defense last Monday making guys we've never heard of like Jacob Tamme relevant.

I could see the Eagles winning at home, but I see the Colts upsetting or at least covering as a higher probability.

Dallas +8 at Green Bay

Stephen Dunn/Getty Images

ARLINGTON, TX - OCTOBER 31: Jon Kitna #3 of the Dallas Cowboys throws a pass against the Jacksonville Jaguars at Cowboys Stadium on October 31, 2010 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Stephen Dunn/Getty Images)

Green Bay has one of the top defenses in the NFL right now and are more than capable of shutting down any offense, and Dallas looks rough.

Coming off an ugly loss to the Jaguars last week while sitting on a less than impressive 1-6 record, the Cowboys have a lot to play for.

By the way, is any one else on the Jon Kitna bandwagon? Sure, he threw four picks last game, but three of them were not his fault whatsoever.

I see the Cowboys as a lost cause with no chance for the season, but that makes them dangerous in my book.

Green Bay will win this game, but Dallas will keep it within eight to cover.