College Football Predictions: Hawaii Over Boise St and Possible Week 10 Upsets
Week 9 was slated to be the weekend that at least two of college football’s undefeated teams would fall.
Even the odds-makers were on board, as Michigan State and Missouri both were undefeated underdogs facing tough road trips to Iowa and Nebraska respectively.
Both the Spartans and Tigers did indeed succumb to the outstretched hands of defeat. But Auburn and Oregon both made it through the weekend unscathed, as did the balance of college football’s undefeated, consisting of Boise State, TCU and Utah.
So, will any of the mighty five that remain perfect atop college football shock the world and be knocked off?
The answer to this question is a resounding yes, as two of these perfects will face off on Saturday afternoon when 8-0 Utah hosts 9-0 TCU in Salt Lake City.
Therefore, at the very most only four flawless squads will survive the weekend.
But who else will shock us in Week 10? Who will under-perform, who will play over their heads and who will manage to stun a college football fan base that is becoming less apt to be surprised by an unexpected upset?
Boise State? TCU? Stanford? Virginia Tech? Nebraska? Missouri? Oklahoma?
The following slideshow will attempt to identify six of the most viable cases for surprise outcomes and will furthermore rank these picks based on confidence (one being the most certain and six reserved for the weekly ridiculous selection).
“'Always remember...Goliath was a 40 point favorite over David.'” - Shug Jordan / Auburn
6. Hawaii over Boise State
1 of 6
@ Boise State
Boise State -22
Overall Series: Boise State leads 8-3 and is 4-0 at home against the Warriors.
No. 4 Boise State is the picture of perfection, a flawless 7-0 as it greets the 7-2 Hawaii Warriors in chilly Boise for the Saturday afternoon meeting.
The Bottom Line
Frankly, it is hard to imagine Boise State losing to anyone at this point in the season. Despite the tremendous media hoopla surrounding fresh-faced Kellen Moore and confident-yet-humble Chris Peterson, the Bronco’s numbers speak for themselves.
No. 11 in passing yards, No. 17 in rushing yards, No. 2 in scoring, No. 3 in scoring defense, No. 2in pass defense and No. 2 against the run.
The statistics read like some far-fetched fictional fantasy penned by an author sick and tired of good teams from mid-major conferences getting the shaft.
After beating Oregon State in Week 3, most of college football began looking ahead to the Broncos meeting with Nevada on November 26th as the next real obstacle for Boise State’s hopes of making the BCS title game.
But somewhere along the way things went haywire and a Nevada team that was supposed to be second in the WAC, only to the lofty Broncos, dropped a game to a surprising Hawaii squad.
Indeed, the Warriors were supposed to finish in the middle of the pack in the WAC, but instead they have managed a 7-2 record (5-0 in conference), including wins over La. Tech, Fresno State and Utah State—all who were supposed to be better teams.
Hawaii at Boise State may be overlooked as a real test for a Bronco squad that has literally sang-and-danced its way over its last four opponents (team that combine for an 11-22 record in 2010).
Hawaii is the No. 1 passing team in the land, averaging almost 400 yards through the air per game.
Saturday afternoon in Bronco Stadium might be far more interesting than originally anticipated.
Ridiculous. Right?
5. Georgia Tech over Virginia Tech
2 of 6
@ Virginia Tech
Virginia Tech -14.5
Overall Series: Virginia Tech leads 4-3 and is 2-1 at home vs. the Georgia Tech
Heading into this game, Georgia Tech is 5-3 and 3-2 in the ACC while No. 22 Virginia Tech is 6-2 and a perfect 4-0 in conference.
The Bottom Line
Though both teams like to run the ball (and have done so very efficiently), the Hokies clearly have the statistical edge in this match-up.
Virginia Tech is more balanced on offense and defense. In scoring defense, the Hokies rank 29th versus Georgia Tech’s 49th.
But Virginia Tech has won six straight games against opponents who are a combined 20-29 thus far in the 2010 season.
In fact, Georgia Tech is the first team with a winning record that the Hokies have faced since their Oct. 2 clash with North Carolina State. Furthermore, the Yellow Jackets are only the fourth FBS team that Virginia Tech has faced that sports a winning record all season.
Though on paper the Hokies should be able to stop the Georgia Tech running attack—led by Anthony Allen and Josh Nesbitt—what will actually occur in Blacksburg on Thursday night remains to be seen.
4. Northwestern over Penn State
3 of 6
@ Penn State
Penn State -6.5
Overall Series: Penn State leads 10-3 and is 5-1 at home vs. Northwestern
Northwestern is 6-2 and traveling to Happy Valley to face a 5-3 Nittany Lions squad fresh off a big win over Michigan.
The Bottom Line
Though much of the focus of this game will be centered on whether or not the legendary Joe Paterno captures his 400th win or not, this matchup features two similarly up-and-down teams.
If Northwestern QB Dan Persa is 100 percent (after suffering a concussion last week) it will be interesting to see how Penn State’s formidable pass defense handles the Wildcat attack.
Though Persa has been stellar throwing the ball (174-for-234, 12 TDs and only three INTs) the outcome versus Penn State on Saturday might be more dependent on his ability to run the ball.
Persa is Northwestern’s leading rusher with 360 yards on 121 carries. He will be facing a Nittany Lions team that has struggled against the run. Most notably, Penn State gave up a season high 282 rushing yards in its home loss to Illinois (a team that has averaged 190 yards per game rushing).
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
3. Baylor over Oklahoma State
4 of 6
@ Oklahoma State
Oklahoma State -7.5
Overall Series: Oklahoma State leads 16-12 and is 9-5 in Stillwater vs. the Bears.
No. 17 Oklahoma State is 7-1 coming into its annual game versus Baylor, with the Cowboys only loss resulting from a barnburner against Nebraska.
No. 21 Baylor is 7-2 and fresh off its first win over Texas in Austin in almost 20 years.
The Bottom Line
Baylor and Oklahoma State are eerily similar from a statistical standpoint.
Both average over 300 yards through the air, 180 yards on the ground and both struggle defensively against the pass.
But the Cowboys have allowed just about 50 yards more through the air than have the Bears.
If Baylor can continue to be effective passing with QB Robert Griffin III tossing the ball to five of the top 27 receivers in the country (the most from any one team), they will have a chance to knock off the Cowboys.
Of interest, in Baylor’s two defeats (to Texas Tech and TCU) the Bears were held to under 100 yards rushing for the only two times in 2010.
If Baylor runs for over 100 yards, outguns the Cowboys and can find a way to limit penalties (the Bears are the most penalized team in college football) it can extend its unprecedented Big 12 winning streak.
The last time Baylor beat the Cowboys in Stillwater? 1939.
Makes you wonder if the Bears will continue to rip through the 2010 season, erasing every bad football memory they can along the way.
Maybe Art Briles is more of a therapist than a football coach.
2. Utah over TCU
5 of 6
@ Utah
TCU -6
Overall Series: Utah leads 5-2 and is 3-0 vs. TCU in Salt Lake City
No. 3 TCU is a perfect 9-0 and a regular part of the BCS buster and national title discussions. No. 5 Utah, on the other hand, has quietly gone 8-0 and is in a similar but less publicized position.
The Bottom Line
TCU and Utah have both faced and beaten a team that was ranked in the top 25 (Pitt and Oregon State respectively).
Both knocked off a Big 12 opponent that went on to shock Texas and have better than expected seasons (Baylor and Iowa State respectively).
TCU features a formidable running game and an average passing attack. Utah offers good balance offensively and has been effective both through the air and on the ground.
Both teams have solid defenses.
Though there is a lot of talk about the quarterback matchup in this game, you have to wonder about how a TCU team that has been so effective running the ball will do against a Utah defense that has been stifling against the run.
TCU has averaged 271 yards per game on the ground against teams that have allowed 190 yards per game rushing on average. This means that the Horn Frogs put up their numbers against defenses that average around 95th nationally against the run.
The Utes have given up an average of 103 yards of rushing per game. They did that against teams that averaged gaining 125 yards per game on the ground and rank 94th nationally in rushing yards.
If Utah shuts down the Horned Frogs running attack and forces Andy Dalton to throw the ball, it may well knock TCU out of both the national title and BCS discussions completely.
1. Arizona over Stanford
6 of 6
@ Stanford
Stanford -8
Overall Series: Arizona leads 14-11 and is 7-4 vs. the Cardinal at Stanford. Stanford is 6-4 in the last ten games played.
No. 15 Arizona takes its 7-1 record on the road this Saturday night to face No. 13 Stanford, a team that is also 7-1. Both teams’ single losses have come to teams from the state of Oregon. Arizona dropped a game to Oregon State and Stanford lost to the now-No. 1 Oregon Ducks.
The Bottom Line
Stanford’s offense (No. 5 in scoring) versus Arizona’s defense (No. 7 in scoring) is as provocative a matchup as we will see this weekend.
Though Stanford QB Andrew Luck will be interesting to watch against the Wildcats’ No. 39 pass defense, the really intriguing matchup in this game is the Cardinal's No. 12-ranked ground attack versus Arizona’s No. 5-ranked rushing defense.
If Arizona can manage to shut down Stanford’s running game and win through the air with their No. 12-ranked pass game (against the Cardinal passing “D” which is No. 40) the Wildcats may well win in Stanford.
Don’t let all the talk about Andrew Luck fool you. Though it is all well deserved, overlooking Arizona QB Nick Foles is a mistake, as he just might be the quarterback we’re talking about next week.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
