College Football Bowl Projections For Week 9: No Denying Oregon and Auburn
It did not take Auburn head coach Gene Chizik (pictured) long to establish himself as the King of SEC. Coach Chizik is riding a Tiger, literally, to the top of the Southeastern Conference this season.
With such a position the Auburn offensive bulldozer is favored to earn a spot in the BCS Title Game.
Or, are they?
Welcome to the ninth installment of the weekly Bleacher Report Bowl Projection series.
Summary and analysis is presented for all 35 postseason bowl games.
In the following pages you will find specific articles regarding the 24 highest-paying bowls, each detailing how the teams were chosen and who will be the most likely contenders for these contests.
The remaining 11 bowls reward participants with payouts of less than $1 million. These contests are listed as a group on page two of this article.
The choices presented here are updated on a weekly basis. They include the outcome of past games and a team's upcoming schedule.
Reader participation is strongly encouraged each-and-every week. All followers should feel free to leave comments regarding their impressions of bowl matchups and how these games may develop over the course of the season.
Participants that leave comments will make a difference in what schools are selected for the bowl games. Final analysis and predictions will be a combination of the readers' suggestions and the writer's personal opinions.
The bowl presentation order reflects the amount of money paid to schools for playing in the game.
Information concerning conference affiliations to specific bowl games is part of each analysis.
We kindly ask all readers to provide their ideas and predictions of which teams go to these contests. Only with your assistance may we gather a consensus regarding the continuing developments and provide the most accurate predictions possible.
The 11 Bowl Games Paying Less than $1 Million to Participants
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In the traditional order of bowl projections, the games would be listed in order from the first played to the last played. Unfortunately, this sort of method removes the element of money paid to the schools and ignores the success of teams during the season.
The 35 bowl games listed here are in order of the amount of money paid to the participants.
By using this system, we do not devalue the Rose Bowl or increase the prestige of the Kraft Bowl simply based upon what date the post-season event takes place.
We begin with the group of 11 bowls paying out less than $1 million to the schools invited.
Bowl Date Venue Payout Conf. Tie-Ins Projected Matchup
No.35: New Orleans Dec. 18 New Orleans $325,000 Sun Belt, CUSA Troy vs. Tulsa
No.34: Texas Dec. 29 Houston $612,500 Big Ten, Big 12 Indiana vs. Texas Tech
No.33: New Mexico Dec. 18 Albuquerque $750,000 MWC, WAC BYU vs. Fresno State
No.32: Armed Forces Dec. 30 Dallas $750,000 CUSA, MWC Houston vs. Army*
No.31: Hawaii Dec. 24 Honolulu $750,000 CUSA, WAC SMU vs. Hawaii
No.30: Poinsettia Dec. 23 San Diego $750,000 MWC, Navy San Diego St. vs. Navy
No.29: Kraft Jan. 9 San Fran. $750,000 WAC, Pac-10 Nevada vs. Washington
No.28: GMAC Jan. 6 Mobile $750,000 MAC, Sun Belt Temple vs. M. Tenn. St.
No.27: Humanitarian Dec. 18 Boise $750,000 WAC, MAC Idaho vs. Ohio U.
No.26: Little Caesars Dec. 26 Detroit $750,000 MAC, Big Ten N. Ill. vs. Northwestern
No.25: Birmingham Jan. 8 Birmingham $900,000 SEC, Big East Kentucky vs. South Fla.
The Kraft Hunger Bowl in San Francisco could find itself with one of the most interesting of the lesser-paying bowl games with Jake Locker and Washington going up against "The Pistol" offense of Nevada.
The Birmingham Bowl sets up another unique challenge for the SEC against a Big East opponent while the New Mexico Bowl continues to labor under the pressure that comes from being the first of all postseason contests each year.
The Armed Forces Bowl may turn to the U.S. Military Academy at West Point if no viable Mountain West opponent is available for nearby Houston of Conference USA.
Troy will win the Sun Belt Conference and opt for the bright lights and night life of New Orleans. The Trojans may face a strong opponent in CUSA representative Tulsa.
The GMAC features a nice location for the up-and-coming Temple Owls to demonstrate their balanced attack against Sun Belt-entry Middle Tennessee State.
The Hawaii Bowl has the opportunity to bring former Coach June Jones and his SMU Mustangs to the islands for a reunion of old acquaintances.
The Humanitarian is an example of a choice purely of more local interest to fill seats.
In San Diego, the Poinsettia Bowl may elect to take the local Aztecs for the host team from the Mountain West due to their success on the field this season. Navy (see pictured with the President of the United States) makes for a suitable opponent.
The Little Caesars has the advantage of bringing in the Mid-American Conference Champion and highly touted Northwestern which could make for an entertaining in-state rivalry contest.
The Texas Bowl may interest the Bobby Knight family.
In the following pages you will find the 24 bowl games paying out $1 million or more to those schools fortunate enough to receive invitations.
No. 24: The St. Petersburg Bowl
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Date: December 21, 2010
Place: St. Petersburg, Florida
Payout: $1 Million
Conference Tie-Ins: Big East No. 6 vs. Conference USA No. 4
Projected Matchup: Rutgers vs. Southern Mississippi
It seems like only yesterday Rutgers was making a case for the BCS as the high priest of the Big East.
That was then, this is now, and the Scarlett Knights will be fortunate to receive an invitation to a resort area like the St. Petersburg Bowl.
Southern Mississippi has the size and skill to make a run for the CUSA title. If the Golden Eagles fall short of that goal, this will be a fine consolation prize.
No. 23: The Eagle Bank Bowl
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Date: December 29, 2010
Place: Washington, D.C.
Payout: $1 Million
Conference Tie-Ins: ACC No. 8 vs. CUSA No. 6
Projected Matchup: Ga Tech vs. East Carolina
The Yellow Jackets of Ga Tech have traveled to just about every bowl location, but somehow the city of Washington has been absent from their destinations.
This year is a good time to correct that, as the Jackets are not contenders for the ACC crown this year.
East Carolina is always up to playing everyone at any venue so they should make for an interesting opponent.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
No. 22: The Meineke Car Care Bowl
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Date: December 31, 2010
Place: Charlotte, North Carolina
Payout: $1 Million
Conference Tie-Ins: Big East No. 3 vs. ACC No. 5
Projected Matchup: UConn vs. UNC
This bowl destination has become something of a home for the constantly under-performing UNC program.
UConn appeared to be a contender for the Big East title prior to meeting Denard Robinson and Michigan in the season opener and is slowly building back their confidence level in order to compete on the big stage once again.
The Meineke event in Charlotte should be the best case scenario for these two teams.
No. 21: The MAACO Bowl
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Date: December 22, 2010
Place: Las Vegas, Nevada
Payout: $1 Million
Conference Tie-Ins: Mountain West No. 1 vs. PAC-10 No. 5
Projected Matchup: TCU vs. California
We'll all believe it when we see it.
TCU could be the BCS Champion this season, or, they could end up in the MAACO Bowl against a .500 California squad who should outlast Arizona State for the PAC-10 invitation.
How can this be?
Because the loser of the Utah-TCU game this weekend is not on the radar of any other BCS Bowls at this point.
If so, the Horned Frogs or the Utes will tumble from their lofty perch to the Mountain West Conference tie-in bowl game in Las Vegas.
However, there is hope. See the final page of this article for a breakout explanation from the BCS regulations regarding multiple teams from non-BCS conferences.
No. 20: The Independence Bowl
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Date: December 27, 2010
Place: Shreveport, Louisiana
Payout: $1.1 Million
Conference Tie-Ins: Mountain West No. 3 vs. ACC No. 7
Projected Matchup: Air Force vs. Clemson
The Falcons of Air Force have to continue their winning ways in order to qualify for the Independence Bowl.
The ACC has a new tie-in with the Independence and will need to send out a school with a highly visible fan base who will travel anywhere to see their team.
Meet the Clemson Tigers.
Could not ask for anything better than these two in the Independence Bowl.
No. 19: The Dallas Football Classic
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Date: January 1, 2011
Place: Dallas, Texas
Payout: $1.2 Million
Conference Tie-Ins: Big Ten No. 7 vs. Big 12 No. 8
Projected Matchup: Penn State vs. Texas A&M
In the inaugural Dallas Football Classic, played at the site of the Cotton Bowl Stadium, city Fathers could not be more happy than to see these two schools as the projected contestants.
In the not too distant past, Coach Joe Paterno's Nittany Lions versus Texas A&M would sound like a battle between top 10 teams.
Even with their sliding records, this contest would be a dream matchup for the sponsors of this new Bowl.
No. 18: The Music City Bowl
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Date: December 30, 2010
Place: Nashville, Tennessee
Payout: $1.6 Million
Conference Tie-Ins: SEC No. 7 vs. ACC No. 6
Projected Matchup: Mississippi vs. Maryland
The Terrapins of Maryland have put together a fine season so far and appear willing to leave the confines of the nation's capital in order to stalk SEC prey.
Ole Miss will need a break to qualify for the Music City Bowl, and the feeling here is the legs and arms of quarterback Jeremiah Masoli will get the job done for the Rebels.
No. 17: The Liberty Bowl
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Date: December 31, 2010
Place: Memphis, Tennessee
Payout: $1.7 Million
Conference Tie-Ins: Conference USA No. 1 vs. SEC No. 8
Projected Matchup: Central Florida vs. Georgia
The Bulldogs of Athens have an opportunity to secure a position in the legendary Liberty Bowl opposite the Conference USA Champion.
With Auburn and Ga Tech remaining on the schedule, Georgia will need all of their strength to qualify for a trip to Memphis.
Central Florida looks to be the class of the CUSA in 2010 and will make for quite an entertaining afternoon against the SEC representative.
No. 16: The Sun Bowl
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Date: December 31, 2010
Place: El Paso, Texas
Payout: $1.9 Million
Conference Tie-Ins: ACC No. 4 vs. PAC10 No. 4
Projected Matchup: Miami vs. Oregon State
With the new contract of the Sun Bowl with the ACC the league will be pressed hard to send a "name" school to rally local support and national attention in one of the oldest and most grand of the Bowls.
Miami fits the bill.
Oregon State has a better team than much of the country acknowledges since the Beavers have long played second fiddle to Southern California in the PAC-10 and now must deal with the notoriety of top-ranked Oregon.
El Paso will be the perfect setting for proving how good the Beavers really are.
No. 15: The Pinstripe Bowl
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Date: December 30, 2010
Place: New York City, New York
Payout: $2 Million
Conference Tie-Ins: Big East No. 4 vs. Big 12 No. 7
Projected Matchup: West Virginia vs. Texas
In the inaugural Yankee Stadium Bowl game football fans throughout the Big Apple called for Notre Dame to be invited.
The Irish could come as a Big East representative or as the back-up team for the Big 12.
But, Notre Dame is performing so poorly they do not appear likely to win enough games to qualify for a postseason event.
Have no fear, in steps last season's runner-up for the national title, Texas.
And Texas brings the big name and reputation so needed by the infant Pinstripe Bowl.
Syracuse would be the preferred opponent but the Orange have moved on to greener pastures by taking out West Virginia.
With their huge traveling fan base, look for the Mountaineers to be the opponent for the Longhorns.
No. 14: The Champs Sports Bowl
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Date: December 28, 2010
Place: Orlando, Florida
Payout: $2,130,000
Conference Tie-Ins: Big East No. 2 vs. ACC No. 3
Projected Matchup: Syracuse vs. Florida State
Coaching makes the difference. And the Orange of Syracuse have turned their program around and set sail for new heights of accomplishments.
Syracuse is on track to finish right behind Pittsburgh in the Big East selection process.
Florida State's players do not pay attention to detail and that will cost them in attempting to win the ACC.
Sounds like trouble ahead for the Seminoles.
No. 13: The Holiday Bowl
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Date: December 30, 2010
Place: San Diego, California
Payout: $2.2 Million
Conference Tie-Ins: PAC-10 No. 3 vs. Big 12 No. 5
Projected Matchup: Arizona vs. Baylor
The Wildcats may be the most balanced squad in college football. Equally at home running or passing, equally at ease on defense or offense.
When at full strength, Arizona can play football with anyone in the nation. The trouble is, they are not operating with a full stockpile of weapons due to injuries.
Baylor is having a comeback season where the Bears have to be taken seriously as a contender for the Big 12 South title.
The Holiday Bowl would be fortunate to have this game as their postseason offering to the country.
No. 12: The Alamo Bowl
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Date: December 29, 2010
Place: San Antonio, Texas
Payout: $2,225,000
Conference Tie-Ins: Big 12 No. 3 vs. PAC-10 No. 2
Projected Matchup: Stanford vs. Oklahoma State
The new Alamo contract calls for the PAC-10 to send their No. 2 team to San Antonio.
The Cardinal have an outside possibility at a BCS invitation but it is unlikely if two teams from non-qualifying conferences remain undefeated.
Oklahoma State has lost only to Nebraska and may have the horses to upset Oklahoma and win the Big 12 South.
The Cowpokes have an offense to play any kind of game Stanford wishes and this proposed matchup would make for one of the most entertaining pre-New Year's Day contests.
No. 11: The Gator Bowl
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Date: January 1, 2011
Place: Jacksonville, Florida
Payout: $2,750,000
Conference Tie-Ins: SEC No. 6 vs. Big Ten No. 4
Projected Matchup: Florida vs. Illinois
The Gator Bowl has a new tie-in with the SEC and Big Ten, so there is no reason the Gators cannot be the host team to their old coach, Ron Zook and his Fighting Illini.
This is the only contest that will sell out the Gator Bowl and attract national attention.
No. 10: The Chick-Fil-A Bowl
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Date: December 31, 2010
Place: Atlanta, Georgia
Payout: $3.25 Million to ACC, $2.4 Million to SEC
Conference Tie-Ins: ACC No. 2 vs. SEC No. 5
Projected Matchup: N.C. State vs. Mississippi State
Two schools who like to play all-out on each possession and thoroughly entertain their raucous followers.
The Wolfpack is a gamble here, they could be shut down by Clemson this weekend and if so, El Paso would be a more likely destination.
The maroon Bulldogs have an opportunity to move up even higher in the bowl hierarchy if events break their way at the end of the regular season.
No. 9: The Outback Bowl
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Date: January 1, 2011
Place: Tampa, Florida
Payout: $3,100,000
Conference Tie-Ins: SEC No. 4 vs. Big Ten No.3
Projected Matchup: Arkansas vs. Michigan State
The Spartans are actually better than they appeared against Iowa last week. If certain events fall their way an outside possibility of a BCS Bowl game will exist.
Arkansas throws the ball very well and scores a great many points in each contest.
Because of this, the Razorbacks will be chosen to represent the SEC in the Outback Bowl against one of the strongest Big Ten squads this season.
No. 8: The Insight Bowl
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Date: December 28, 2010
Place: Tempe, Arizona
Payout: $3,325,000
Conference Tie-Ins: Big Ten No. 4 vs. Big 12 No.4
Projected Matchup: Michigan vs. Missouri
There is big money to be made in the desert with the new bankroll ESPN gave the Insight Bowl.
Chasing the gold and silver coins will be two exciting teams, Michigan and Missouri. Chosen because neither is going to win their conference yet both will bring a large media interest.
No. 7: The Cotton Bowl
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Date: January 7, 2011
Place: Arlington, Texas
Payout: $ 3,575,000
Conference Tie-Ins: SEC No. 3 vs. Big 12 No. 2
Projected Matchup: LSU vs. Oklahoma
Oklahoma has to take care of Oklahoma State in order to arrive at the Big 12 title game while LSU could just as easily replace Alabama as a BCS at-large contender.
OU will not advance past Nebraska the Big 12 title game and LSU is not likely to replace Auburn in the SEC championship contest.
A 10-2 Tiger squad versus an 11-2 Sooner team looks like a good possibility for the Cotton Bowl.
No. 6: The Capital One Bowl
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Date: January 1, 2011
Place: Orlando, Florida
Payout: $4.25 Million
Conference Tie-Ins: SEC No. 2 vs. Big 10 No. 2
Projected Matchup: South Carolina vs. Iowa
South Carolina is sitting in the cat bird's seat in the SEC East while Iowa made a major step forward in the Big Ten by smashing Michigan State last week.
There is a possibility for the Hawkeyes to finish ahead of Ohio State and literally replace the Buckeyes as a BCS at-large participant.
No. 5: The Fiesta Bowl
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Date: January 1,2011
Place: Glendale, Arizona
Payout: $17 Million
Conference Tie-In: Big 12 No.1 vs. BCS At-Large Selection
Projected Matchup: Nebraska vs. Utah
Nebraska has defeated two unbeaten teams in the last couple of weeks so they are riding high right now. The Cornhuskers should be able to take the Big 12 title in their final year of conference membership.
The opponent for the Big Red could be the winner of this week's Utah-TCU contest.
Either team is a formidable opponent but the thought here is the Utes survive at home and later close out the year with victories over Notre Dame, San Diego State, and BYU to qualify for a BCS at-large selection.
No. 4: The Orange Bowl
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Date: January 3, 2011
Place: Miami, Florida
Payout: $17 Million
Conference Tie-Ins: ACC No.1 vs. BCS At-Large Selection
Projected Matchup: Virginia Tech vs. Ohio State
If Va Tech runs the table and wins the ACC the Gobblers will automatically receive an invitation to the Orange Bowl due to a conference tie-in.
Ohio State has plenty of trouble ahead with their rugged schedule so it is a roll of the dice to believe the Buckeyes qualify as an at-large selection for the BCS.
If Coach Jim Tressel does navigate the dangerous waters, look for Miami to be the most likely destination for the Buckeyes.
No. 3: The Sugar Bowl
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Date: January 4, 2011
Place: New Orleans, Louisiana
Payout: $17 Million
Conference Tie-Ins: SEC No. 1 vs. BCS At-Large Selection
Projected Matchup: Alabama vs. Pittsburgh
The winner of the upcoming LSU-Alabama game should be the choice as an at-large entry for the Sugar Bowl, provided Auburn is selected for the BCS Title game.
As winner of the Big East Conference, the Pitt Panthers will provide a solid if unspectacular opponent.
No. 2: The Rose Bowl
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Date: January 1, 2011
Place: Pasadena, California
Payout: $17 Million
Conference Tie-Ins: Big 10 No. 1 vs. PAC-10 No. 1 (see note below)
Projected Matchup: Wisconsin vs. Boise State
A new rule concerning the Rose Bowl allows the Pasadena committee to select a high ranking team from a non-BCS conference provided it meets certain poll criteria.
The rule may come into play this season as Boise State, TCU, and Utah are all highly ranked teams who can meet the Rose Bowl requirements.
With Oregon as the likely PAC-10 champion, if the Ducks are plucked for the BCS Title contest there is the opportunity for history to be made in Rose Bowl by choosing an at-large team such as Boise State to play against a quality Big Ten opponent.
With Wisconsin having already beaten Ohio State and Iowa, the Badgers seem to be the front runner for the Big Ten invitation.
No. 1: The BCS Title Game
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Date: January 10, 2011
Place: Glendale, Arizona
Payout: $17 Million
Conference Tie-Ins: None-BCS Final Regular Season Poll No. 1 vs.No. 2
Projected Matchup: Auburn vs. Oregon
With these two squads currently sitting in the top two positions in the BCS poll, there is no reason to not project them as the schools who will be invited to play for the national title.
But, there may be pitfalls along the way for each team.
Oregon must take on Arizona and Oregon State to finish the season while the Tigers have several challenging contests ahead while in search of the SEC crown.
Because of the rugged tasks before them, it would not be a surprise to find Oregon and Auburn in other BCS bowl games.
The Cool Down Lap: The Readers Take Over
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Many thanks to David Hedlind, Carl Stine, Tim Croley, Dan Boone, Brandon Hamblen, Zodiac and so many others for taking the time to provide winners in specific bowl games.
Because of input from the readers, the Bleacher Report weekly projection series has become a source of information and entertainment for sports fans around the country and globe.
As we do each week, a tally of the "Big Seven" bowl games is in order. The comments of readers from last week's article reveals a consensus of the following:
BCS National Championship: Oregon vs. TCU
Rose Bowl: Ohio State vs. Boise State
Sugar Bowl: Auburn vs. Wisconsin
Orange Bowl: Florida State vs. Alabama
Fiesta Bowl: Nebraska vs. Pittsburgh
Capital One Bowl: Arkansas vs. Michigan State
Cotton Bowl: Missouri vs. LSU
Upon researching the problem of having two such highly ranked powerhouse teams as Utah and TCU in the same non-automatic qualifier conference (The Mountain West) the following paragraphs were discovered in the BCS regulations and guidelines.
No more than one such team from Conference USA, the Mid-American Conference, the Mountain West Conference, The champion of Conference USA, the Mid-American Conference, the Mountain West Conference, the Sun Belt Conference, or the WAC will earn an automatic berth in a BCS bowl game if either team is ranked in the top 12 of the final BCS standings, or is ranked in the top 16 of the final BCS standings, and is ranked higher than the champion of a conference with an automatic berth in one of the BCS Bowls. But it goes on to specify:
A second team may be eligible as an at-large. If two or more teams from those conferences satisfy the provisions for an automatic berth, then the team with the highest finish in the final BCS Standings will receive the automatic berth, and the remaining team or teams will be considered for at-large selection if it meets the criteria.
This could possibly result in a fascinating situation for the loser of this week's TCU-Utah game.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
