2010-2011 NBA Predictions: 50 Bold Predictions for the NBA Season
Bold Predictions for the NBA Season, should be just that: bold.
It's pretty easy to say that, out West, the Lakers are going to win the Pacific division, or that the Heat will make the playoffs.
Inside are possible scenarios that could play out in the 2010-2011 season.
It's a long regular season, and a much longer post-season. Expect a wild ride.
No. 50: The Cavaliers Contend For The 8th Seed
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Can you name three people on the Cavs roster?
The better question is, could you name three people on last year's Cavs roster? Maybe that's one of the reason's LeBron took his talents to South Beach.
But Cleveland isn't quite as horrible as they appear. They do have Tony Parker at guard....ok Anthony Parker, not Mr. Longoria.
Still, Mo Williams and Daniel Gibson are decent. And Anderson Varejao is a quality big man.
If they get more out of J.J. Hickson this season, the Cavs should creep near .500. That could earn them a spot as the 8th seed in the first round.....which would likely set up a compelling matchup against the Heat.
Remember how the Detroit Lions made the playoffs the season after Barry Sanders retired. Just sayin'.
No. 49: Kendrick Perkins Outplays Shaq and Jermaine O'Neal
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The Celtics hope that Perkins is ready to return from his torn ACL near the All Star Break.
In terms of numbers he won't be able to match what free-agent signees Shaq and Jermaine O'Neil do.
But Perkins is far younger than either of the O'Neals. If he is healthy by February, the Celtics will rely on him for more quality minutes by the playoffs in May.
And with the East very top heavy, the Celtics are a good bet to finish in the 2nd or 3rd seed and maybe reach the Conference finals.
No. 48: The Unheralded Grizzlies Have 3 All-Stars
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It's hard to believe but Memphis does have three of the best players in the West.
O.J. Mayo averaged 17.5 points and 38 minutes-per-game last year, playing in all 82 contests. He should do even better in his third season with the team.
Rudy Gay turned out nearly identical numbers. Still it was Zach Randolph who led the team in points-per-game, as well as rebounds.
To have nearly 60 points a game distributed across those three players is something that even the Celtics and their fabled Big 3 didn't have in 2009-2010.
No. 47: Indiana's Danny Granger Challenger Durant, Kobe, and LeBron
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The Pacers small forward certainly led the NBA superstar anonymity. He also scored 24-plus for the second straight season.
Granger hasn't been able to stay healthy for a full season, last season, he finished 8th in the league in point-per-game.
This year, he posts more and finishes in the Top Five, just a few points below Wade, Kobe, Durant, and the rest.
No. 46: The Hornets Happily Unload Peja Stojakovic
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The Hornets are headed for a disastrous season, one in which Chris Paul trade rumors garner far more headlines than any team win.
It's not likely that the Hornets can pair their 12-year-veteran, $14-million-per-season forward with Paul but they'll try. $29-million-per-year is practically impossible for one franchise to assume mid-season.
Instead, a playoff contender who is interested in an outside-shooting veteran might show interest in Stojakovic for the stretch run.
No. 45: The Nets Are #1.....In The Lottery
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On the surface, it might not be bold to expect the Nets to post the poorest record in the NBA in 2010-2011. They were a league-worst 12-70 a year ago.
The hard-luck franchise wasn't even rewarded with the first (or second!) overall pick in the lottery.
But no team has finished last in overall record in consecutive seasons since the 2001-02 Warriors.
With a talented, yet terribly young roster, the Nets are a good candidate to break that streak.
No. 44: Dallas Plays Good Defense
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Because they had six guys average double figures last year and couldn't get out of the first round, it's hard to believe, but the Mavericks showed improvement defensively.
They are offense first for sure, but Rick Carlisle has made the Mavs a much better team in his two season. Another year together, in his scheme, should benefit them greatly.
They'll need to be sound on the boards and in contesting shots if they hope to contend with the Spurs, Lakers, and NBA leading scorer Kevin Durant's Thunder.
No. 43: The Pistons Deal Rip Hamilton
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Slowly the Pistons have disbanded that great team from the mid-200s. Chauncey Billups, Rasheed Wallace, Ben Wallace (of course he has returned) all left Mo-town.
This year will be Richard Hamilton's turn to move on to bigger and better things.
Hamilton can be a critical piece for a team in the second-half of the season and his playoff experience would really benefit one of the league's younger contenders.
With Ben Gordon behind him and Tracy McGrady there as a project, Hamilton might be better off moving on.
Hamilton's $12 million contract is the only thing that makes a move easy. Someone will take on the money, however.
No. 42: Milwaukee Nearly Steals The Central
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All the moves that the Bulls have made in the past two years should be enough to claim the Central crown in arguably the weakest division in the NBA.
Still, the Bucks will put up a great fight, and in doing so easily earn a playoff spot. Drew Gooden is the only one of Milwaukee's starters who didn't post 15 points-per-game last season; with the Clippers, he did come close to a double-double, however.
With a few shooters, the Bucks bench isn't bad. Their lack of depth up-front, is the only thing that keeps them from a surprise division title.
No. 41: Blake Griffin Plays 70 Games For The Clippers
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We only got to see the number one overall pick of the 2009 draft in a suit and not a Clippers uniform last season.
But in this year's pre-season he is averaging just under 30 minutes and 18 points per game.
His knee seems to be on schedule and the Clippers are eager to see what they have in him.
He will hold up.
No. 40: Golden State Is The Worst Team Out West
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The Timberwolves and Kings had worse records last year, but the Warriors will edge them both out for last place in the Western Conference in 2010-2011.
First round, fifth overall pick Ekpe Udoh is not going to be on the court for quite a while because of his wrist injury. So don't expect improvement on that front.
Stephen Curry, Monta Ellis and the addition of David Lee will keep them in ball games, but not lead to more than 20 wins. They just won't be able to score or grab enough boards in the paint.
No. 39: The Suns Defy Their Age
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Steve Nash is about to begin his 15th NBA season. Grant Hill his 16th. Jason Richardson his 10th.
They balance out their age a bit with Robin Lopez, Channing Frye, and Josh Childress. But Nash, Hill, and Richardson are their stars.
Dealing away Amare Stoudemire, quite obviously makes them a much different team.
But they are still deep and can score. Subtracting Stoudemire won't lead to nearly the type of drop-off people foresee. In the Pacific, the only team they aren't better than is the Lakers. They'll earn a 4th seed.
No. 38: Utah Jazz Guard Deron Williams Is First-Team All-NBA
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The torch has been passed. The best true point guard this season will not be Chris Paul or Steve Nash.
No other point guard in the NBA can score and dish assists at the clip that Williams does.
The departure of Carlos Boozer will cost him a few assists, but he'll pick up his scoring to balance out the difference.
And with last year's three-point totals reaching a career-high, Williams is an elite player.
No. 37: Atlanta Greatly Regrets Letting Mike Woodson Go
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The Hawks overachieved the last two seasons.
But after last season's meltdown in the playoffs against Orlando, the front office let Mike Woodson's contract expire. They replaced him with
Each year that Woodson was at the helm, the Hawks won more games than they did the previous season. That led to three straight playoff appearances.
By going in a totally new direction, both those streaks are in jeopardy now.
No. 36: The Magic Win 57 Games
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After the Heat, Orlando and Boston are neck-in-neck in the race for top team in the Eastern Conference.
The Celtics will claim the Atlantic Division and therefore get a higher seed come April than the Magic. But there is a good chance that the Magic actually win more games than the Celtics, the Bulls, everyone except Miami.
There are going to be so many average-to-below average teams this year, that it's not unreasonable to think three teams in the East approach the 60-win mark.
No. 35: Matt Barnes Wins Sixth Man
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Joining LA gives Barnes more opportunities to score than he ever had in any of his other many stops.
His totals should go up by a few, and near the 15 points-per-game, depending on how many minutes he gets.
Voters around the league will take much more notice of Barnes now that he's with the Lakers, a team under the microscope from day one because of their chasing the three-peat.
A very good year, not great, will get him plenty of votes.
No. 34: Nate McMillan Is Coach Of The Year
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The Blazers have such a curious blend of age and youth amongst their starting five.
LaMarcus Aldridge, Brandon Roy, and Nicholas Batum are all fairly green, while Andre Miller and Marcus Camby are more-than "seasoned" veterans.
It's tough to get a read on how Portland will finish with that starting lineup and a pretty thin bench. On top of that, the Northwest is very balanced: Oklahoma City, Utah, and Denver could all win the division.
McMillan will get the Blazers into the post-season for a third straight season and validate his Coach of the Year status with a playoff series win.
No. 33: Complaining Goes Down, Flopping Goes Up
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If the NBA wants to limit and/or punish players and coaches from complaining about calls or "lingering" after a foul is whistled than the players will retaliate the only way they can: more flopping.
They'll be plenty of technical called early in the season, just to show the league is serious about reducing the jawing with refs. But anyone who is unhappy that they weren't awarded a foul on the defensive front is going to just flop the next time, rather then complain.
The new "rule" is going to lead to more harm than good. Flopping is so lame.
No. 32: Denver Nuggets Hold A Fire Sale
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A little bit later we'll get to Carmelo Anthony. For now, just look at the rest of the Denver roster (and salary responsibilities).
Mr. Big Shot, Chauncey Billups is due $13 million. Kenyon Martin $16 million. It would be easier to swallow the salaries of those 10-plus-year veterans, if the Nuggets had a better shot at winning the Western Conference. Chris Andersen and Al Harrington are also over 30.
But, after the Lakers, there is such a log jam that the Nuggets are not guaranteed even a playoff spot, let alone a deep trip into the post-season.
There is a young foundation of talent with Ty Lawson and J.R. Smith. They may move towards the future and part with the pricey vets.
No. 31: This Is Larry Brown's Last Season....No, Really
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Brown rivals Brett Favre in the retiring/un-retiring category but this will actually be the swan-song for the legendary coaching nomad.
He's 70-year-old now, the Bobcats have very little on the horizon, and since LeBron and Chris Bosh just rolled into his division, this should be the last stop for Brown.
If Don Nelson hung it up, Brown isn't far behind.
No. 30: Injuries Ruin The Spurs Season
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Tony Parker missed 36 games last season. Tim Duncan is now 34 and his numbers are slowly declining. 33-year-old Manu Ginobili has endured multiple leg injuries over the years. Antonio McDyess is 36.
The Spurs might be the best contender for the Lakers this post-season, but they won't make it to a Western Conference Semi or Finals anywhere near healthy. There is just too great a chance that age catches up with Coach Pop's team.
They still win the Southwestern Division and earn a two-seed but can't finish the season.
No. 29: The Rockets Fire Rick Adelman
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The expectations in Houston are probably way higher than they should be.
Yao Ming is going to return, but what can they really expect from him....At least in the early going?
Beside's Yao, the Rockets have good players in Aaron Brooks and Luis Scola.
And if that same roster was in the East, they'd most likely be a four or five seed. But with Dallas, San Antonio, and a much improved Memphis team, the Rockets are going to struggle to win 40 games again.
Aside from opening night against the Lakers, the schedule is pretty favorable at first, but January is going to bring on a real rough patch.
It would be a mistake, but if the record is around .500, the Rockets might let him go near the All-Star break.
No. 28: The Wizards Deal Gilbert Arenas To Philadelphia
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Wouldn't it be ironic if Arenas is pushed out of Washington to make room for the number one overall pick, and ends up playing next to the number two overall pick?
Dealing Arenas is going to be hard no matter what, considering what happened prompting last year's suspension, his $17 million contract, his rash of injuries and all the other antics he's infamous for.
But he's still an elite scorer. If the Wizards want to part with him, there should be plenty of interested parties.
The 76ers know what he is capable pf. And adding Arenas to the duo of Elton Brand and Andre Iguodala would give Evan Turner a chance to develop and not do too much too soon.
No. 27: Amare Stoudemire Leads The East In Scoring
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Stoudemire will flourish in the spotlight of Madison Square Gardens and will post a new career high in points with 26-plus-per-game.
And because Dwayne Wade, Chris Bosh, and LeBron James each lose a few points per game to one another Wade and James fall decimal points behind Stoudemire.
No. 26: John Wall Wins Rookie Of The Year
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Aside from Derrick Rose in 2008-09, and LeBron in 2003-04, no first overall pick has won Rookie-of-the-Year since Elton Brand back in 1999-2000.
That means Wall isn't guaranteed the award. And he'll have two solid contenders throughout the season, Evan Turner and his former Kentucky Wildcat teammate DeMarcus Cousins.
Wall should be able to post 15 points and 9 assists per game, enough to win the award and keep the Wizards around .500.
No. 25: Kevin Durant Wins The MVP
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Declaring Durant an All-Star, or First-Team All-NBA, or even the league's top scorer isn't a bold prediction.
Naming him the MVP ahead of Kobe, LeBron, Wade, or any of the other perennial favorites is.
Durant will again top the 30-point mark and will lead the league in scoring. But it's how much better he makes the Thunder that earns him the hardware.
He doesn't have to do what LeBron did in 2008-09: single-handedly taking his team to the top record in the NBA. But he'll come close.
The Thunder will win the Northwest and grab the three-seed. That alone makes Durant the most valuable player--not necessarily the best--in the league.
No. 24: Craig Sager's Jackets Get Even Crazier
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Sager's sport jackets can often be as entertaining as the early-round playoff games that TNT broadcasts.
He probably picked up some real gems this off-season that he plans to rock during the more promising games.
Hopefully, he won't make us wait until next Spring to see what he has in store and he'll wear something awesome during the first broadcast of the new season.
Prediction: A see through, vinyl sport coat.
No. 23: The Raptors Don't Miss Chris Bosh At All
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With Chris Bosh what exactly did the Raptors accomplish? Back-to-back losing seasons, preceded by trips to the playoffs in which they lost both first round series.
Bosh is a very good player: his numbers are great for sure. But is he really the world beater he's been made out to be by joining LeBron and Wade? We'll find out soon enough.
The Raptors are going to be ok without him; they won't make the 2011 playoffs but they won't fall off a cliff either.
With Andrea Bargnani improving, they'll have a nice 35-win season, roughly the same total they averaged the past two years when Bosh was at his peak.
No. 22: The Heat Don't Come Near A 73-Win Season
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This really shouldn't be too surprising.
Four months is not enough time to mold a team into a world champion. Eight months might be....the Heat very well could win the 2011 NBA Finals in June.
But to think they will bolt out of the game at full speed--they'd have to start at least 25-3 if they think about posting a 73-9 record--is asking a lot.
It might be different if the other 10 players had been playing together and James and Bosh arrived. But that isn't the case.
They'll win 65 games, not 73.
No. 21: The Bulls Joakim Noah Wont Get Any Better
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Just because the Bulls replaced Vinny Del Negro with Tom Thibodeau won't make everything perfect in the Windy City.
Carlos Boozer's arrival in Chicago now gives the Bulls another big man that they have to keep happy. Noah recorded 11 rebounds and 10 points-per-game last year, but those will not go up in 2010-2011.
No. 20: Baron Davis Returns To The All-Star Game
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It's surprising considering his numbers, but Davis hasn't made an All-Star team since 2004, when he was with the Hornets.
This year, under Vinny Del Negro, Davis' point totals and assists totals will improve, near the 20 and 9 marks.
That will be enough to qualify as the second point guard, behind Deron Williams, for this year's All Star Game in his home arena, the Staples Center.
No. 19: The Celtics Cruise Through The Atlantic
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Since the Celtics added Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen, no other Atlantic team has really contended for the division crown.
That won't change in 2010-2011. Because Rajon Rondo is becoming one of the league's premier point guards, the fact that the Big Three of Garnett, Allen, and Peirce are all over 33, won't be as significant.
Jermaine O'Neal and Shaq give Boston enough of a band-aid to keep the front court together until Kendrick Perkins returns in February.
And because they were able to bring Doc Rivers back this year, they have incredible leadership. They'll be they should give the Heat a great test in the Semis or Conference Finals.
No. 18: Derek Fisher Loses His Job
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It had to be a little bit surprising that the Lakers were so eager to bring D-fish back after last year's win in the Finals.
He really had problems with younger guards like Deron Williams and Rajon Rondo in last year's playoffs, as well as Steve Nash.
Steve Blake certainly isn't the ideal guy to replaced a five-time World Champion like Fisher. But he is six years younger and with Portland and the Clippers, he has competed regularly against the best points in the West.
Fisher may as well remain the starter, but in terms of impact, Blake will be just as valuable.
No. 17: Darko Milicic Starts 50-Plus Game For Minnesota
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His career has been such a roller coaster, but maybe the former number two overall pick (ahead of Carmelo Anthony, Dwayne Wade, and Chris Bosh) has finally found a home in Minnesota.
Kevin Love's presence and the addition of Michael Beasley will benefit him on offensive and he should be able to grab a few more boards on the defensive end with those two helping out on the bigger bodies.
He's never going to be a 15 points-per-night player, but with his size, and the fact that he is just 25-year-old, he can be a very capable pro for several years to come.
No. 16: Charles Barkley And LeBron Feud Some More
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Barkley and LeBron have sparred a bit through the media in the past two years, mostly over the future of his free agent status.
Now that LeBron has painted a huge bulls-eye on his back by creating a "dream team" in Miami, the first sign of trouble gives the media a chance to bash him some more.
Barkley doesn't pull any punches, either during interviews or on the TNT studio show. If the Heat manage to play bad during one of their TNT games, expect Barkley to say something about LeBron being "trr-ible."
No. 15: All 5 Mavericks Starters Will Average Double Digits
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All five of the Dallas Mavericks players are capable of scoring 20-points a night. They don't have to because Dirk Nowitski is going to pour in 25-a-game.
The projected starting lineup for the Mavs includes Nowitski, Carron Butler, Jason Kidd, Shawn Marion and Brendan Haywood.
In his first full season with Dallas, Hawyood will be able to add a nother point to last year's 9-points-per-game figure and will reach double-digits.
That means all five of the Mavs starters average 10-plus-per-game. That's an impressive stat.
No. 14: Portland Will Have The League's Top Defense
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Last season the Trailblazers allowed just 94 points-per-game, third best in the NBA and tops in the West.
This year, they will be even better, under Nate McMillan. Marcus Camby gives them stability and experience in the middle while young players like LaMarcus Aldridge and Brandon Roy are quick and capable.
And Andre Miller will chip in with plenty of steals. All around, they should be very hard to reach triple digits against.
No. 13: Rajon Rondo Wins Defensive Player Of The Year
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Rondo led the NBA in steals last season and has been named to the NBA All-Defensive team the past two seasons.
This is the year where he finally takes the award back away from a big man. Gary Payton, back in the 1995-96 season, was the last guard to win the award. Fifteen years later, Rondo wins it.
Howard is a great enforcer but the depth in the backcourt is so much greater than it is in the paint. How many great centers does Dwight Howard face a year? Two? Three?
Now how many great point guards does Rondo face a year? At least twice as many.
No. 12: NBA Commercials Become Even Creepier
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Last year, prior to and during the post-season, the league broadcast those weird commercials to promote the playoffs. (By the way, do they really need to promote the playoffs? They are the playoffs!).
They merged faces of greats like Kobe and KG, Bird and Magic, Bosh and Howard, Nash and Kidd, to show.....well, I'm not sure why they did that. Rivalries are born?
This year, they'll need to one up those pieces with something even more over-the-top. Any guesses as to what it might be?
No. 11: Ricky Rubio's Rights Are Dealt
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The Timberwolves--struggling to compete wit the exceedingly popular Twins and Vikings--will become desperate enough actually try and win sometime in the next few seasons.
Rather than wait around for Ricky Rubio to decide whether he wants to come to the States, or stay in Spain, or try and bargain his way out of Minnesota, the T-Wolves deal Rubio.
The Nets wind up with him and an international star that pleases new owner Mikhail Prokhorov.
No. 10: The Jazz and Jerry Sloan Part Ways
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Sloan and his talented team reach the playoffs for a third straight year, but they are eliminated in the first round.
After the season is over, Sloan, now the longest tenured head coach in professional sports, decides to retire.
There is nothing performance-based about his leaving the Jazz. It has just been 23 years since he's done anything else. That's a long time to stay in the same stressful job.
No. 9: Allen Iverson Tries A Comeback
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There's been talk about Iverson signing with a team abroad.
That will happen and help Iverson to refind his game and convince some one to take a flier on him next spring, near the end of the season.
A reunion with Larry Brown in Charlotte just won't pan out; neither will the rumors that he'll join the Lakers.
Look for some team, on the fringe of the playoff picture, to consider it. Perhaps Cleveland or Houston.
No. 8: Greg Oden Miraculously Returns
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Oden is apparently progressing at a reasonable pace. He is back to running and exercising but not yet playing basketball.
The Trailblazer are patient with him, but will want to see something out of him by the end of the season.
Portland will work him into games and he'll show potential. But they're smart enough to leave him off the playoff roster.
No. 7: Shaquelle O'Neal Retires Mid-Season
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Shaq's stint with the Celtics gets off to a decent start. There he will have more rest--in the form of Jermaine O'Neal and Big Baby Davis--than he's had in recent years.
But the toll his body has taken over the years--plus the toll of a few months in the fairly stacked East, facing players like Amare Stoudemire, Dwight Howard, and Chris Bosh--is too draining.
Injuries will slow him down and he'll somewhat gracefully exit the stage when Kendrick Perkins returns in February.
No. 6: Magic Johnson and Michael Jordan Together At Last
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(Ridiculously made-up prediction alert)
Twenty years after they met in the 1990-91 NBA Finals, Michael Jordan and Magic Johnson will be so inspired by LeBron James desire to team up with friends Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh, they will also join forces.
Magic sold his stock in the Lakers so that he could be free to go buy half of Michael Jordan's stock in the Charlotte Bobcats. Together they will bring Charlotte it's first NBA Finals appearance in 2015.
Prior to that season, they will rename the team the Charlotte Air Magics.
No. 5: Lakers Sweep Miami In The Finals
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The favorite of the West meets the favorite of the East in June and the hype is off the charts with the long awaited Kobe-LeBron showdown in place.
And while Kobe and Pau Gasol aren't a better combination of talent than LeBron, Wade, and Bosh, the Lakers are a better team than the Heat.
In Phil Jackson's last week as an NBA Coach he completely out coaches young Erik Spoelstra--Pat Riley resists the misguided Willis Reed-like temptation to leave the owners box and coach mid-way through the series--and the Lakers sweep.
No. 4: The Knicks Make The Playoffs
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After missing out every years since 2004, the New York Knicks finally return to the post-season. Thanks mainly to the arrival of Amare Stoudemire and one more key transaction. (See No. 1 on this list).
Mike D'Antoni was heavily criticized for taking the Knicks gig over the Bulls job but he proves his critics wrong by leading New York to a 42-40 record and an 8-seed in the East.
And after more than 3,600 days without a win in even a single playoff game, the Knicks manage to steal one game from the top seeded Miami Heat, thus setting off a major media storm.
Of course they are eliminated in 5. But the future looks good for the Knicks.
No. 3: Chris Paul Stays Put
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No one has, or is willing to deal, the talent to satisfy the Hornets.
New Orleans--rightfully so--will ask for the moon when dealing Paul. They know they won't get it, but they won't be happy with any counter offers in return.
Draft picks, bench players, and cash just do not have enough weight to justify to their fanbase dealing a star like Paul.
No. 2: LeBron James Nearly Averages A Triple Double
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James will embrace the fact that, in Miami, he doesn't have to carry the entire team/franchise/city on his shoulders.
His point totals will drop by a fairly significant number: from 29.7 points-per-game to 24 points-per-game. But Wade's presence on the perimeter and Bosh's athleticism down low (much better than anything he ever had in Cleveland) will allow him to average double-digits in dimes.
With a few weeks left in the season, James 8 rebounds-per-game number will spark a Ted Williams-.406-batting-average-debate as to whether or not he can match Oscar Robertson's record for 10-10-10 averages a game.
He'll come close but fall short with incredible individual number: 24, 10, and 9.
No. 1: Carmelo Anthony Goes To The Knicks
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The Knicks pull off the blockbuster of blockbusters when, mid-season, they bring Anthony back to his hometown.
Anthony is a natural fit for the Knicks: the star that the team has strongly lacked ever since the decline of Patrick Ewing's game.
Raymond Felton, Carmelo Anthony, and Amare Stoudemire give the Knicks a great Big Three of their own. They don't manage to do much in 2010-2011 against Boston and Miami's Big 3.
But by 2011-2012 they will be.
