UFC 121 Breakdowns and Predictions

The Ultimate Fighting Championship brings one of the biggest cards of the year to the Honda Center in Anaheim, California.

The main event features the Heavyweight Championship bout between Brock Lesnar and Cain Velasquez.

In the co-main event, Jake Shields will make his UFC debut against Martin Kampmann. This stacked card also includes Tito Ortiz, Paulo Thiago and Diego Sanchez.

After scouring the net for an analysis of this weekend’s festivities, the time has come again for you to feast on some grown man induced knowledge.

I encourage you to read my breakdowns to see why I made the predictions that I made. At the end of the breakdowns, I will have my official picks listed. Thanks for reading. Enjoy the fights!

Brock Lesnar vs. Cain Velasquez

Key Victories :

Lesnar (Randy Couture, Shane Carwin, Frank Mir, Heath Herring)

Velasquez (Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, Ben Rothwell, Cheick Kongo, Jake O’Brien)

Forecast :

Whether you love him or hate him, Brock Lesnar is a magnet rod for attention. He’s been cast by the media as an insurmountable force that the sporting world either hopes to see conquered or left standing.

Regardless of personal feeling, you have to respect his accomplishments. It’s been quite the journey for Lesnar in transitioning from the world of professional wrestling to Mixed Martial Arts.

To think, he was making his MMA debut against Min-Soo Kim at Dynamite!! USA a little over three years ago. Some even picked against him in that bout. The man has made a living off proving others wrong.

Against Cain Velasquez, he faces the toughest challenge of his short career. It’s "speed vs. power" and "technique vs. strength". For weeks, MMA forums across the net have been infused with heated debates regarding the outcome of this colossal Heavyweight showdown.

On Saturday night, the world will nervously look on as two of the best in the sport do battle for the UFC Heavyweight Championship.

Fighting out of Saint Paul, Minnesota, Lesnar is a member of Team DeathClutch. His coaching core consists of Erik Paulson, Marty Morgan, Peter Welch and Rodrigo Medeiros. In college, Lesnar wrestled at Bismarck State before transferring to the University of Minnesota.

He won a national title in 2000 and ended his collegiate wrestling tenure with an overall record of 106-5.

In preparing for Velasquez, Lesnar has trained with Cole Konrad, Pat Barry, Jon Madsen and Chris Tuchscherer. At UFC 116, he rallied after a tough first-round to submit Shane Carwin.

Velasquez fights out of San Jose, California. He trains at American Kickboxing Academy along with guys like Jon Fitch, Josh Koscheck and Mike Swick. At Arizona State University, Velasquez placed top five two years straight in the Division I Collegiate Heavyweight Championship.

Currently undefeated in his MMA career, seven of Velasquez’s eight wins have come by knockout. At UFC 110, he made quick work of former Pride and UFC Champion Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira.

Keys to Victory :

Lesnar must seize control of the octagon. He can’t let Velasquez push the pace and force him into a countering role. Velasquez is a very aggressive fighter who forces his opponents to fight off their heels. Lesnar needs to push forward and be methodical in his choice of attack.

While aggressive, Velasquez tends to hang his chin in the pocket longer than he should. This mistake got him chin-checked a few times against Cheick Kongo. Lesnar may not have the speed of Velasquez, but he certainly possesses the power to drop any Heavyweight. All it takes is a little patience and the right timing.

As Velasquez flurries, Lesnar should either seek out the takedown or setup the straight right hand. Against a versatile fighter like Velasquez, he’ll have to disguise everything he does. A good wrestler won’t get taken down by a power double attempted across the entire octagon. Lesnar needs to use feints to catch Velasquez off-guard.

On the ground, Lesnar should use his weight to wear Velasquez out from top position. This won't be easy seeing as Velasquez is one of the best scramblers in the division.

Velasquez has to be aggressive and make Lesnar counter. Lesnar tends to become tentative when pressed and has yet to show the ability to counter effectively. The technical advantage on the feet will belong to Velasquez. He needs to push the action and best Lesnar in the exchanges.

On the feet, Velasquez has to respect Lesnar’s power. All of the cardio in the world won’t matter if you get hit by a freight train. Lesnar’s freakish physique gives him an edge in power that should definitely be respected.

We need to see more head movement from Velasquez. He won’t get by giving Lesnar easy openings to land that right hand.

With takedowns, Velasquez needs to catch Lesnar in the center. Against the cage, Lesnar’s size and balance makes tussling with him relatable to that of a 600 pound grizzly bear.

Velasquez should try to stick with the single leg takedown. There are so many ways to finish a single, and it’ll force Lesnar to balance while he defends on one leg. This is where being an overbearing Heavyweight could have its disadvantages.

Prediction :

Velasquez will press the action on the feet and constantly look for takedowns. "The Next Big Thing" will be in a world of hurt when the bout touches the ground, and the storm of ground and pound gets underway. Lesnar will hang tough, but the ref will finally be forced to step in late in the second round.

Jake Shields vs. Martin Kampmann

Key Victories :

Shields (Dan Henderson, Paul Daley, Yushin Okami, Carlos Condit, Jason Miller, Hayato Sakurai, Robbie Lawler, Nick Thompson, Mike Pyle, Renato Verissimo)

Kampmann (Paulo Thiago, Carlos Condit, Thales Leites, Jorge Rivera, Drew McFedries)

Forecast :

In the co-main event, former Strikeforce Middleweight Champion Jake Shields makes his anticipated UFC debut against Martin Kampmann. If Shields wins, he will likely move on to challenge the winner of Georges St. Pierre and Josh Koscheck for the Welterweight Title.

Kampmann, a top ten Welterweight, will try to play spoiler for Shields and push himself further into title contention.

Jake Shields fights out of San Francisco, California. He is a member of Cesar Gracie Jiu-Jitsu along with Gilbert Melendez and the Diaz brothers. His grappling credentials include the following: third place in the 2005 ADCC Submission Wrestling World Championship, Pan American Jiu Jitsu Champion and a three-time Grappler’s Quest Advance Champion.

Most MMA pundits list Shields among the best pound-for-pound fighters in the world. In his final Strikeforce bout, Shields defeated former Pride Middleweight Champion Dan Henderson by unanimous decision.

Kampmann was born in Aarhus, Denmark. He trains at Xtreme Couture with Randy Couture, Forrest Griffin and Gray Maynard. His style consists of Muay Thai and Submission Wrestling. The majority of his victories have ended in knockout.

Since dropping to Welterweight, Kampmann has notched up a 4-1 record with his only loss coming to Paul Daley. At UFC 115, he defeated Paulo Thiago by unanimous decision.

Keys to Victory :

The UFC can twist up even the hardiest veteran’s psyche. This is the biggest stage in all of Mixed Martial Arts. Shields’ wrestling has generated tons of success for him over the years. He needs to stick with what got him here. Kampmann is a solid striker who poses a lot of technical problems for Shields on the feet.

Standing and trading with Kampmann would prove toxic for Shields. He needs to keep his striking offense simple and use it to setup the takedown.

Despite being a black belt under Cesar Gracie, Shields can’t underestimate Kampmann’s BJJ. Kampmann has a nasty guillotine choke that will beg for attention every time Shields attempts the double.

The guillotine isn’t where Kampmann’s underrated ground skills end. He is good wrestler in his own right with an arsenal of chokes to finish a fight.

Kampmann’s survival will be determined by his ability to defend the takedown. Shields is very persistent with his wrestling. He won’t let a stuffed shot or two discourage him from implementing his gameplan.

Kampmann needs to keep a low base and be quick when he works in and out of range. He has to be careful about firing off too many combinations. If he stays in the pocket too long, Shields will have easier opportunities to sniff out the takedown.

Shields is not a fighter you want on top of you. His ground patience gives him some of the most smothering top control in the sport. Kampmann can’t let the fight get to this point. He needs to utilize a lot of movement at multiple angles to make it harder for Shields to setup the shot.

Prediction :

You can expect plenty of boos in this one. Shields will frustrate Kampmann with takedowns and grind out a unanimous decision. It’s a fan’s right to criticize. Just remember that Kampmann isn’t helpless. It’s his own fault if he can’t defend the takedown, work submissions or scramble away from bottom.

Paulo Thiago vs. Diego Sanchez

Key Victories :

Thiago (Josh Koscheck, Mike Swick)

Sanchez (Nick Diaz, Kenny Florian, Karo Parisyan, Clay Guida, Joe Stevenson, Joe Riggs, Jorge Santiago, John Alessio)

Forecast :

After racking up back-to-back losses, Diego Sanchez has returned to his roots at Jackson’s MMA. He’ll need all the help he can get when he takes on top ten Welterweight Paulo Thiago.

Fighting out of Albuquerque, New Mexico, Sanchez is a black belt in Gaidojutsu and a brown belt in BJJ. At Jackson’s MMA, he’s surrounded by guys like Georges St. Pierre, Rashad Evans, Jon Jones and Nate Marquardt. Sanchez experienced plenty of success in his initial stint with the New Mexico based camp.

After winning the first season of The Ultimate Fighter, he racked up five straight victories before losing to Josh Koscheck at UFC 69. He is currently coming off losses to B.J. Penn and John Hathaway.

Thiago fights out of Brasilia, Brazil. He is a black belt in BJJ and Judo with the majority of his wins coming by submission. In Brazil, he trains at Team Black House. The team includes the Nogueira brothers, Anderson Silva, Jose Aldo and Lyoto Machida.

Thiago is remembered for his stunning KO victory over No. 1 contender Josh Koscheck at UFC 95. At UFC 115, he lost to Martin Kampmann in a lopsided unanimous decision.

Keys to Victory :

With Thiago’s horrific boxing defense, Sanchez should have plenty of opportunities to expose him in that area. We need to see the "Nightmare" of old. Sanchez has to pressure Thiago with aggressive striking and constant takedowns.

On the feet, Sanchez has to vary up his attack. The Tae Bo-like one-twos are growing tired, and fighters at this level aren’t falling for such a simplified attack.

Sanchez will have to be especially careful in scrambles with the Brazilian. Thiago is great at seeking the anaconda and brabo chokes in transition.

Thiago has to show better boxing defense. He needs to keep his hands up, move his head, and stop pawing at his opponents. Sanchez doesn’t have a diverse attack on the feet. He either throws a high kick or rushes forward with straight punches.

If Thiago times his offense, he can take advantage of Sanchez’s aggression. Takedowns will also be something Thiago has to watch for. Sanchez’s aggressive standup is usually meant to setup his takedowns. Thiago has to be ready with a sprawl or counter with an uppercut when Sanchez changes levels.

If taken down, Thiago can’t waste valuable time stalling out from guard. He has to stay active from his back in search of submissions and openings to scramble. With Sanchez’s aggressive ground and pound, Thiago will have opportunities to put forth offense.

Prediction :

Coming off two straight losses, the outcome of this fight is everything to Diego Sanchez. "A Return to the Roots" is a fitting theme for this bout.

It will be a vintage Sanchez performance when he pressures Thiago on the feet and grabs takedowns. Thiago will find ways back to his feet, but he won’t be able to temper Sanchez’s aggression. At the end of three, Sanchez will walk away with the unanimous decision.

Tito Ortiz vs. Matt Hamill

Key Victories :

Ortiz (Forrest Griffin, Vitor Belfort, Wanderlei Silva, Evan Tanner, Patrick Cote, Vladimir Matyushenko)

Hamill (Keith Jardine, Mark Munoz, Tim Boetsch)

Forecast :

What!? Tito Ortiz is fighting? It’s amazing that we are a week out from this fight and have yet to hear anything from Ortiz. This could speak to his respect for Matt Hamill, a drifting UFC spotlight, or an unseen dedication to revitalize a storied career.

Whatever the reasoning, it will be teacher versus student when "The Huntington Beach Bad Boy" Tito Ortiz faces Matt "The Hammer" Hamill.

Ortiz was born in Santa Ana, California. He trains at Team Punishment with Rob McCullough and Justin McCully. At Golden West College, Ortiz won a California state junior college wrestling title. In 2000, he placed third in the under 99kg division in the ADCC Submission Wrestling World Championship.

Ortiz was the longest reigning Light Heavyweight Champion in UFC history. He is currently coming off losses to Forrest Griffin and Lyoto Machida.

Fighting out of Utica, New York, Hamill was a silver medalist in Greco-Roman Wrestling and a gold medalist in Freestyle Wrestling in the 2001 Summer Deaflympics. At the Rochester Institute of Technology, he was a three-time NCAA Division III National Champion.

Hamill spent time under Ortiz’s tutelage on TUF Season 3 and at Team Punishment after the show. Since leaving the camp, Hamill has put together his own gym and stable of trainers. He is currently on a four fight win streak. At the TUF 11 Finale, he took a tough majority decision over Keith Jardine.

Keys to Victory :

While Hamill has better takedowns from the clinch, Ortiz has the better outside shot. He needs to stay out of the clinch and force Hamill to defend takedowns in the open. This fight will be won or lost by the wrestling. Who will be able to dictate where the fight goes?

On the ground, Ortiz has always possessed the ability to punish opponents from full guard. Hamill isn’t a BJJ ace, and we haven’t seen him fight much from his back. Ortiz’s primary objective is to secure the takedown and put the hammer on Matt Hamill.

Both fighters should strike even on the feet. The clinch is the place that Ortiz needs to really worry about. Hamill is very good at closing the distance and working his dirty boxing. Ortiz should stay out of the clinch at all costs.

Hamill needs to be aggressive and really push Ortiz’s cardio. In the past, Ortiz was known for having some of the best conditioning in the sport. Lately, he tends to shut down as bouts become gritty and go the distance. Hamill has made drastic improvements in his standup. He needs to best the exchanges and seek out the clinch.

He has to avoid getting sloppy on the feet because Ortiz will be looking to setup the double. The explosive takedowns of Ortiz have become a distant memory, but he remains a wily veteran with takedowns that should be respected.

In the clinch, Hamill can latch onto the single collar tie and bust Ortiz up with dirty boxing.

Prediction :

At the end of the night, this bout will be in discussion for "Fight of the Night." Ortiz will eventually begin to fade after a strong start. Initially, he’ll have success with his takedowns and top control. As the fight drags on, Hamill will stuff the shot and land more on the feet.

In the end, Ortiz’s initial surge will be just enough to net him the split decision.

Gabriel Gonzaga vs. Brendan Schaub

Key Victories :

Gonzaga (Mirko Cro Cop, Carmelo Marrero, Chris Tuchscherer, Justin McCully)

Schaub (Chris Tuchscherer)

Forecast :

In his bid for Heavyweight relevancy, Gabriel "Napao" Gonzaga continues his inconsistent journey against TUF 10 runner-up Brendan Schaub.

Gabriel Gonzaga was born in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. He trains out of Team Link with Ricardo Funch and Paulo Filho. His style includes BJJ (black belt), Muay Thai, Kickboxing and Wrestling. Since his KO victory over Mirko "Cro Cop," Gonzaga’s stroll through the Heavyweight ranks has been rather inconsistent.

He is 3-4 in his last seven bouts. At UFC on Versus, he was KO’d in the first round by Junior Dos Santos.

Born in Aurora, Colorado, Schaub trains at Jackson’s MMA, High Altitude Martial Arts, and Grudge Training Center. Throughout the various gyms, his training partners consist of Nate Marquardt, Shane Carwin, Rashad Evans, and Eliot Marshall.

Schaub is a purple belt in BJJ. He is coming off back to back TKO victories over Chris Tuchscherer and Chase Gormley.

Keys to Victory :

Gonzaga needs to start being more consistent with his grappling. Brock Lesnar couldn’t take Shane Carwin down for an entire round, but Gonzaga did it on his first attempt. It feels like the same things have to be said about him for every breakdown. In the past three years, Gonzaga has been knocked out four times.

If he doesn’t want to make it five, he has to rely more on his grappling. Schaub has demonstrated improvements in his striking against Tuchscherer and Gormley. All of his fights (even the one loss) have ended in the first round by KO.

Gonzaga has the power and technique to put Schaub away on the feet, but he has to be willing to avoid unnecessary exchanges and work for takedowns when he sees an opening. On top, he can look for submissions or rough Schaub up with ground and pound.

Schaub needs to get after Gonzaga and test his chin out early. Gonzaga doesn’t have the sturdiest of beards, and he tends to drop his hands in his boxing defense. Schaub doesn’t want to get overconfident on the feet. Gonzaga has more than enough power to hand the Jackson student his lullaby.

The ground is a dangerous place to be for Schaub in this fight. Gonzaga has a level of BJJ that Schaub is not ready to deal with. He needs to keep the bout standing and win the exchanges.

Schaub has to also watch out for Gonzaga’s high kick. Mirko "Cro Cop" fell victim to it in one of the most devastating knockouts in MMA history. Gonzaga has been persistent in trying to make history repeat itself.

Prediction :

Whether Gonzaga is announced as "Napao" or "ManBearPig", nicknames won’t matter on Saturday night. Gonzaga will get the takedown and lock up the first round kimura.

Official Picks

Cain Velasquez By Round 2 TKO Stoppage

Jake Shields By Unanimous Decision

Diego Sanchez By Unanimous Decision

Tito Ortiz By Split Decision

Gabriel Gonzaga By Round 1 Submission (Kimura)

(Originally Published at SportsHaze.com...Follow me on Bleacher Report or on Twitter at SportsHaze_MMA)