NLCS 2010: Who Has Better Pitching, Philadelphia or San Francisco?
Whoo! I’m not a fan of either of these teams, but just as a baseball fan I am pumped for this series. To look at the pitching that is going to be on display between these teams gives me the shivers. What excitement. For instance, this season, the Giants were 1st in ERA, 1st in strikeouts, 1st in saves, and 4th in WHIP . . . in the major leagues! How does that even happen?
The Phillies were no slouch either: Roy Halladay has the CY Young all wrapped up; meanwhile, the Phillies were sixth in ERA and 1st in WHIP.
Forget hitting and intangibles for right now, in terms of pitching, this is going to be one memorable series.
Let’s break it down, starter to starter.
The Ace: Tim Lincecum Verses Roy Halladay
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Let me just ask a general question to everybody OUTSIDE Philadelphia and the San Fransisco area: if you were to take one pitcher from these two to start a game seven, which one would you take?
Can you even decide?
I've watched a lot of baseball over the past five years (just giving the time frame that Lincecum has been in the league, Halladay has been dominating for about a decade) and I can't decide between Halladay and Lincecum.
I understand that recently, Halladay has been a force and Lincecum has sorta struggled. This year, the Giant's ace has probably been Matt Cain. But Lincy is coming off two straight CY Young Awards.
And then there was the question: would these guys struggle in their first postseason?
Um, nope.
Halladay threw that no-hitter; Lincecum came out the next night and threw, in my opinion, a better game against a better opponent: 9 innings, 2 hits, 14 k's (He K'd Derrick Lee three times and Jason Heyward twice). Unbelievable stuff by both.
Edge: Slight edge goes to Halladay. He's been better for the entirety of 2010.
The 2nd In Command: Matt Cain Verses Roy Oswalt
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I have no trouble saying that Matt Cain is the best pitcher in California. I make that statement with apologies to Matt Latos, Clayton Kershaw, Dan Haren and Lincecum. Cain is the real ace in San Francisco, he has been dominated all year long even during Lincecum's struggles and his play helped San Fran stay in the playoff hunt when it looked like the Padres were slipping ahead.
Cain has good K's and a fine ERA. He will be ready to go against Philly's number 2, which is . . .
Oswalt has been much improved since he was traded from Houston to Philly. 73 K's in 82 innings and a very good ERA. His start against Cincinnati was poor and he didn't even make it t0 the 6th inning. He'll have to do better.
Edge: Cain
Game 3 Starter: Cole Hamels Verses Jonathan Sanchez
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Cole Hamels, once the hero of the 2008 WS, is not buried as Philly's #3 starter. He has pretty good numbers this season, except for in the win column (which is odd given how Oswalt went 7-1 and Halladay had 21 wins -- what, did Philly hitters just choose not to hit when he was on the mound?).
This is where Philly proves themselves. They have to win this game.
On the other side, Jonathan Sanchez, although not has popular, but still very good. San Francisco fans bitch and moan about the lack of this guys run support like Philly does with Hamels. Sanchez has 13 wins, 3.07 ERA and 205 K's. Those are big numbers.
(Sanchez and Hamel's numbers, by the way, are eerily similar).
Edge: Wash, but the game will be in San Francisco.
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Quick Break: What Will Philadelphia Do In Game 4
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What the Phillies choose to do in game four will spell out the rest of the series. Do they go with Joe Blanton or do they go with Halladay again?
If they do make the decision to go with Halladay then they better be careful and their will be immense pressure to shut down the Giants as quickly as possible. If they start Halladay and then the series goes to seven games, the arms will fall off quick.
Game 1: Halladay - Lincecum
Game 2: Oswalt - Cain
Game 3: Hamels - Sanchez
Game 4: Halladay - Bumgarner
Game 5: Oswalt - Lincecum
Game 6: Hamels - Cain
Game 7: Halladay ( or Blanton if Halladay's arm is completely off his body) - Sanchez
This is where the advantage of having four top starters comes into play. In a normal series Oswalt and Halalday will pitch twice. If it goes seven then Halladay might have to go and pitch three times.
And then what will happen even if Philly wins and they have to go against a really good offense in Texas, Tampa or New York? Charlie Manuel has to think this out heavily before he makes up his mind.
The Rest Of The Starters
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Let's examine the rest of the staff:
Giants:
- Madison Bumgarner: The rookie got the rock in Atlanta and closed out the series. He's ready to go, despite his youth.
- Barry Zito: He's the odd man out. With the up-and-downs in his career it would be nice to see him out and playing but he just isn't good enough.
Phillies
- Joe Blanton: A terrible pitcher way past whatever prime he had. Absolutely death if the Phillies put him in the playoffs so hopefully he isn't used.
Edge: Bumgarner can pitch game 4 which will provide great assistance to Lincy and Cain if this series goes to 5 or 6 games.
The Closers: Brian Wilson Verses Brad Lidge
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Lidge isn't where he was when the Phillies won the WS, but there is reason to count of him if the time calls for it. His starters are all used to going long innings so unless one of them gets roughed early he won't have too much trouble. He isn't elite though.
Brian Wilson dominates Lidge in every statistical category so I have no problem in saying that the Giants have a huge advantage in terms of closers. Another good thing about Wilson is that he seems a little bit nuts, so that could come in hand at the end of a close game if you want a fired up pitcher ready to shut an opponent down.
Edge: Brian Wilson
Conclusion: The Giants Have The Better Pitching Staff
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By going on record in saying that San Francisco has superior pitching to Philadelphia, that doesn't mean that I am calling it a done deal with the Giants moving on. Philly is dominant in nearly every meaningful category. They have much better hitting in Rollins, Howard and Utley . . . unless rookie Buster Posey goes on a Babe Ruth in '27-like tear.
However, according to the Gods of baseball, usually the team with the better pitching staff wins a series in the end. The Giants are unmatched but they have a shot.
My head tells my Philly, but my heart says San Francisco in six games.
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