Five Reasons Brock Lesnar Should Be Worried About Cain Velasquez

At UFC 121, Brock Lesnar is scheduled to defend his heavyweight title against unbeaten American Kickboxing Academy standout, Cain Velasquez.

Lesnar will rightfully enter this bout as a significant favorite, but fans shouldn’t allow odds to distort the intriguing heavyweight showdown set before us.

This will be the biggest test of Lesnar’s MMA career. Some of you may be rolling your eyes right now. Wasn’t Shane Carwin the biggest test of Lesnar’s career?

Despite matching size for size, Carwin didn’t present Lesnar with even near the technical problems Velasquez will bring on Oct. 23. Still don’t believe me? Kick your feet up and grab a cold beverage out the fridge. This is about to get interesting. Here are five reasons Lesnar should be worried about Velasquez.

Velasquez May Be the Better Wrestler

People always talk about the size and power of Lesnar, but wrestlers are constantly bombarded with the notion of technique over strength. Before we get into technique, we all need to be on a universal wavelength in understanding that collegiate and Olympic wrestling doesn’t translate to MMA wrestling. There are so many other aspects involved.

Outside of a power double, Lesnar hasn’t shown the same fluidity in his takedown motions as Velasquez. In the bout with Carwin, Lesnar’s takedowns were completely neutralized in the first round. It wasn’t because of Carwin’s "size" or "power." Lesnar struggled to disguise his shot and resorted to telegraphing. Carwin could see the double coming a mile away and had no trouble defending.

It really wasn’t until the second round against a cardio-depleted Carwin that Lesnar was finally able to sniff out the double.

Still think it’s all size? Let’s dig up some history.

At UFC 91, Lesnar took on Hall of Famer Randy "The Natural" Couture for the heavyweight championship. In the bout, the much lighter and older Couture showed the ability to defend the takedown and scramble from underneath. He even almost swept Lesnar from top position during a grappling transition.

If not for a couple of fence grabs from Lesnar (which he was warned for by Mario Yamasaki), Couture would have most likely secured a takedown towards the end of the first round.

Lesnar is a very large and talented wrestler, but size doesn’t make up for technique. Velasquez has shown diverse skills and the often envied ability of keeping his opponents guessing. With such a wide variety of skills, you never know what Velasquez is going to do.

Velasquez is exceptionally crafty at sniffing out the double or the single and has various ways of finishing the takedown. Watch the takedown clinic he put on Ben Rothwell.

Let’s say you’re not buying into the universal perception that "collegiate and Olympic wrestling doesn’t translate to MMA wrestling." Lesnar was an NCAA Division I collegiate champion at the University of Minnesota. Has Velasquez won any national titles?

The quick answer to that question is no, but Velasquez was a two-time Division I All-American at Arizona State University. He placed top five in the national championship two years straight.

The collegiate heavyweight division wasn’t nearly as stacked when Lesnar won his championship. Velasquez wrestled in the era of greats like Cole Konrad, Steve Mocco and Greg Wagner. Konrad and Mocco in particular are considered as two of the greatest collegiate heavyweights of all time.

Minus those guys, Velasquez may also have won a national championship, and we would be having a completely different discussion.

Power Could Succumb to Speed

With the emergence of gargantuans like Carwin and Lesnar, people have come to the conclusion that size is everything in the heavyweight division. The problem with this assumption is that history tells us a completely different story.

The most dominant heavyweights of all time have traditionally been lighter. Guys like Fedor Emelianenko, Randy Couture, Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira and Mirko "Cro Cop" made up for lack in size with speed and agility.

While Lesnar’s entire game is dependent upon a haymaker or the power double, Velasquez’s speed and technical skill set open up a whole world of other opportunities. He can sift through Lesnar’s offense and utilize his range better, transition seamlessly from striking to wrestling and scramble away from various threatening positions.

With that said, the outcome of this fight could be decided by the answer to one question. Can Lesnar catch the more nimble fighter? Most people seem to be leaning towards yes, but that isn’t nearly enough to bank on in a bout involving world-class heavyweights.

Lesnar May Lack the Conditioning to Keep Up

When it comes to conditioning, Velasquez is in a class of his own. His coaches at AKA have credited him in outworking lightweights in the gym.

The scariest part about his unlimited gas tank is how relentless it enables him to be. Throughout a fight, he is constantly working from every position. His FightMetric totals in past bouts are staggering. At UFC 99, he out-landed Cheick Kongo 262 strikes to 42.

An opponent with this form of tenacity is a nightmare for any fighter. Lesnar won’t catch the same break he did in the second round against Carwin. Velasquez will be in his face for every second of every round. It will be up to Lesnar to find a way to slow him down.

This will be tough considering Velasquez also has the chin to absorb major punishment. Despite being stunned in his bout with Kongo, Velasquez showcased amazing recovery and quickly continued his dominating onslaught. It doesn’t get much better than taking multiple straights square on the chin from Kongo.

On UFC Primetime, Bob Cook, Velasquez’s trainer, talked about multiple sparring partners having to be brought to the gym due to Velasquez wearing them all out.

"We always tell him, ‘Don’t break your toys’," Cook said.

Lesnar has great cardio himself, but Velasquez is on another wavelength. If Lesnar can’t find a way to slow him down, this could be a rough night for him.

Velasquez is the More Technical Boxer

He may not pack the same amount of power, but Velasquez is definitely the more proficient boxer. Against Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, Velasquez stunned the former UFC and Pride champion with multiple combinations en route to a first-round KO stoppage.

Lesnar’s stand-up deficiencies lie primarily in his defensive skills. When he isn’t the aggressor, Lesnar tends to panic as the pocket closes and fists start flying. He has yet to show the ability to deliver any form of counters.

Outside of basic one-twos, Lesnar doesn’t have much else to offer on the feet from a technical standpoint. Velasquez isn’t only able to string together combinations with his hands, but he also has some nasty leg kicks.

Footwork is another cause of concern for Lesnar. Back to the speed and agility notion, Velasquez’s lighter footwork gives him more fluidity in his offense. This in turn helps him setup and disguise his methods of attack. Lesnar isn’t blessed with the same luxuries. He has more of a plodding, flat-footed stance. This makes his offense a lot easier to anticipate.

Velasquez is the More Well-Rounded Fighter

As we close, please understand that this isn’t an attempt to discount Lesnar’s abilities. He is the UFC heavyweight champion for a reason.

It’s amazing how much closer the odds were in the bout between Lesnar and Carwin. Other than one-punch knockout power, not much was known about Carwin. He had never been out of the first round, and the extent of his ground knowledge remained a mystery. The UFC hype machine has fans fixated on the importance of size in the heavyweight division.

Velasquez has made a collegiate career of throwing around 285-pound guys. Lesnar won’t present anything that he hasn’t already dealt with.

Power can only get you so far in this sport. Shane Carwin found that out in his bout against Lesnar. You will eventually come across that technical guy who refuses to break. Lesnar is a technical wrestler in his own right, but Velasquez has more tools at his disposal.

Velasquez possesses dominant wrestling, solid boxing skills, and otherworldly cardio. He is a rare breed of heavyweight unlike anything seen in a long time. There are so many different ways that he can approach this fight. Lesnar is limited to landing a fight-ending shot or securing multiple power doubles.

This will be Lesnar’s true test. There aren’t any questions surrounding this opponent. Is Lesnar ready for world class contenders like Cain Velasquez and Junior Dos Santos? The world is about to find out.

(Originally published at SportsHaze.com....Follow me on Twitter at SportsHaze_MMA)