The Tony Dungy Theory Of Success: Which Team Will Be The NBA's Next Dynasty

The Tony Dungy Theory Of Success

By Austin Brookner and Jakub Maslikowski

Jakus and I are sitting in his apartment on a summer night watching preseason football, when Tony Dungy joins the broadcast booth for a spot segment interview on the TV. Jakus and I are paying about as much attention to the TV as anyone does for a preseason sporting event. But we hear Tony Dungy saying something along the lines of: "now that I no longer coach and am not in the middle of the fray, I see that leadership and having the whole organization on the same page is what makes a successful franchise. Not having supertalent. Although you are always looking for talent to get you to the next level."

Jakus and I catch this line and start thinking to ourselves that what Dungy said was really true, and in lots of different areas. Like a successful TV series for example. Seinfeld, The Sopranos, Mad Men, even shows neither of us like very much such as Friends, Sex and The City, and Entourage. None of these shows were built on big name super actors. But it was always very clear from the creators of the show what the show was about, who the central character was, and what everyone's purpose was in the show. The same could be said for championship sports franchises. The organization, coach, star player, and surrounding players were always on the same page, most especially with dynasties. From Jordan and the Bulls to Tom Brady and the Patriots, the leadership is clear and strong. But like Dungy said, you need to have talent as well.

In the NBA, we recognize that championship teams tend to have a unique characteristic in addition to strong leadership. They regularly have three stars on their team, and it is clear who the number 1, 2, and 3 guys are. The number 1 guy is undoubtedly the most talented player on the team. The number 2 guy could be the number 1 guy of a good playoff team of his own, but not a championship caliber team. The number 3 guy is of all- star caliber, but is not capable of being the number 1 guy on a team that can go deep in the playoffs.

Our current champs - the Lakers - have such a three star structure. Kobe is the number 1, Gasol is the number 2, and Odom is the number 3. Before them, the Celtics were champs and they too had three stars in Garnett, Pierce, and Allen (1, 2, and 3, respectively). For the Bulls, Jordan and Pippen were always the number 1 and number 2 guys. Different guys played the number 3 role (e.g., Horace Grant, Tony Kukoc, and Dennis Rodman).  Right now in the NBA the Miami Heat look like the next championship dynasty. They certainly have three stars in Wade, Bosh, and Lebron. Their three stars have perhaps the greatest amount of talent ever seen on one NBA team. An important step in getting the Heat on the same page is determining who the number 1, 2, and 3 guys will be among Wade, Bosh, and LeBron, with each star accepting their respective roles in the hierarchy.

In order for the Heat to work as a successful team, LeBron (being the superior talent) must be the number 1 guy on the team. First of all, LeBron's ego is too big to play number 2 guy to anyone. Secondly, ever since Shaq left and Wade has had to be the number 1 guy of the Heat, it has taken a heavy toll on him physically. He's gotten beaten up and injured, largely because it’s a physical burden to carry a team on both offense and defense, and it's especially hard for a guard to do it. LeBron is bigger and stronger and thus a better candidate to take on the physical aspect of being the number 1 guy. Jordan and Kobe are both number 1 guys and are guards, but they are bigger guards than Wade. Jordan and Kobe can play both the 2 guard and the 3 small forward position. Wade is more of a point 1 and a 2 guard, whereas LeBron could play a 2, 3, or 4 power forward position.

If it seems unlikely that Wade would let LeBron be the number 1 guy when he is three years older than LeBron, has won a ring whereas LeBron hasn't, and is the face of the Heat's franchise, then consider this: Wade may be older, but they were in the same draft class when LeBron was the first overall pick. Also, it’s always been acknowledged that LeBron is the most prodigious basketball talent among his class and his peers. He is the biggest celebrity too. He garners the most media attention and publicity among a generation of players that care about that sort of thing. Also, LeBron has been more successful as the number 1 guy of his own team - the Cavs - than Wade has been as the number 1 guy of the Heat since the departure of Shaq.

With Lebron as the team's number 1 and Wade the number 2, they would work well together for several reasons. They are different sizes and play different positions. Also, they compensate for each others weaknesses. LeBron is not a fiery guy or a clutch shooter. He often misses important free throws and chooses to make the unselfish pass to his teammates down the stretch. Wade is a fiery guy and is very clutch. He is a much better last shot guy than LeBron. He's got that killer instinct down the stretch, as he showed in the finals when the Heat beat the Mavs.

In order for the Heat to work, it is crucial that Chris Bosh fits in as the number 3 guy. Bosh is unusual for a number 3 because he plays like a star franchise player and craves attention like one. On any other team he'd be the focal point, which is unusual for a number 3 but not unprecedented. Ray Allen would be the star of any other team and became the number 3 for the Celtics. But he spent the bulk of his career as the number 1 on teams and went to the playoffs with them. Bosh hasn't. So will Bosh be comfortable with his legacy in the league going down as the third wheel, instead of establishing himself as a number 1 or 2 guy? We'll have to wait and see, but one thing is for sure, Bosh makes a great number 3 guy.

It seems that the idea behind constructing this Miami Heat team is to create an updated version of the Chicago Bulls dynasty. We know that Wade and LeBron idolize Michael Jordan. By joining forces, they signal how they wish to emulate Jordan and Pippen. Bosh fits in as their Horace Grant/Kukoc/Rodman. But it's nothing more than a ventriloquist act. First of all, the Heat artificially constructed this team through free agency. Jordan, Pippen, Grant, and Kukoc were all drafted by the Bulls. Secondly, a Wade and LeBron tandem is different from a Jordan and Pippen tandem. Wade and LeBron are much closer in talent to each other than Jordan and Pippen were. Also, Wade and Lebron are both more talented than Pippen, and not as talented as Jordan. Thirdly, Wade and Lebron have adopted all the superficial aspects of Jordan(e.g., the commercials, the branding of themselves, the endorsements and celebrity and fashion).

Meanwhile, another team in the NBA has the real ingredients needed to build a dynasty like the Bulls. Most importantly, they have the next king of the NBA, that is, they have the next Michael Jordan. That team is the Oklahoma City Thunder, and that player is Kevin Durant.

While everyone hailed Wade and LeBron as the next Michael Jordan when they were youngsters, let's look at some similarities between Mr. Jordan and Mr. Durant. Durant wasn't the number 1 overall pick of his year. Greg Oden, an injury proned big man bust was drafted by Portland number 1 that year. Jordan wasn't the number 1 overall draft pick of his class either. Sam Bowie, an injury proned big man bust was drafted by Portland. Both Durant and Jordan went to teams that were horrible and had little basketball history in their franchise. Jordan was responsible for building a basketball reputation and legacy with the Bulls and the city of Chicago. The Chicago Bulls and Michael Jordan will always be synonymous with each other. Durant is doing the same with Oklahoma City and the Thunder. The Thunder literally had no basketball history. And Durant is positioned to build a basketball reputation with the city and the franchise that is all his own.

The Thunder have a clear number 1 player in Kevin Durant. He is a scoring machine and is unguardable. Durant is no stranger to being the number 1 guy. He led a championship caliber team in college with Texas. He was voted the best player in college as a freshman. He has been the best player on the Thunder/Sonics ever since he was drafted by them. Kevin Durant is not only the best young player in the game, but he will be the next best leader after Kobe Bryant retires. Durant led Team USA to a gold medal in the FIBA World Championships this summer. He was the MVP of the tournament and set a USA record for the most points in the tournament. All this with a team that had nowhere near the talent of the Olympic Team two years ago, mind you. The USA was not even favored to win this tournament. Durant got the experience of being the go-to-guy and leading a team to gold. Wade, Bosh, and LeBron did not have that experience with the Olympic team that won gold. They played on a stacked team where Kobe Bryant was the number 1 player, and they all deferred to Kobe down the stretch. Durant was the leader and took the tougher road to gold. And he learned from Coach K and veteran champions such as Chauncy Billups and Lamar Odom.

The Thunder have a solid number 2 guy in Russell Westbrook. He is an amazing athlete, great defender, and is a triple-double threat every night. He is certainly one of the top guards of his age, every bit as good as Derrick Rose, if not better. Durant and Westbrook are each only 21 years old, so they have an entire career together to develop their relationship. Russell Westbrook was on the USA team as well. That was undoubtedly a valuable experience for him. Westbrook is a burgeoning star in this league much like a young Scottie Pippen. Both are great all around players, great defenders, and are big guards who can play the point. Pippen wasn't the star number 2 player on the Bulls at first. It took him time to grow into the number 2 option that Jordan could trust. Westbrook isn't a reliable number 2 yet either. But he definitely has the potential to grow into that role. After watching him play at the FIBAs, it was clear that his ceiling is higher than any other guard his age.

But as good as Westbrook is, he is not an extraordinary number 2 player yet. Not as good as a Scottie Pippen in his prime or as good as Dwayne Wade is right now. To complete the trifecta, the Thunder would need a really good number 3 player to be a legitimate championship contender at the moment. Right now their number 3 guy is Jeff Green. Not very especially promising. They would need a much better number 3 than Green if they are going to overtake the Heat.

The Thunder could get an aging veteran star player who is not too much past his prime to be their number 3 guy (similar to when Shaq went to the Heat). Tim Duncan would be the perfect short term fit as the Thunder's number 3 guy. Duncan is a free agents in 2011, and the Spurs have been gradually fading out of contention. It is only a matter of time before their team dissembles.  Another great number 3 guy for the Thunder would be Kevin Love. He is a more long term option than Tim Duncan, but he might be more difficult to acquire. With the addition of Love, the Thunder would have a big three of their own that could match the Heat's big three for years to come. Also, they would be younger than the Heat's Big Three. Durant, Westbrook, and Love are all turning twenty-two this year. Love is a rebounding machine and a great outlet passer. He and Westbrook were teammates in college at UCLA and have great chemistry, as exemplified by how well they played together with Team USA at the FIBA World Championships this year.

If Duncan decides to leave the Spurs or if Love chooses to leave Minnesota, the Thunder would be an attractive franchise for either one. The Thunder have a secure relationship with their city, their fanbase, their ownership, their coach, and they have a strong young nucleus of players. Another good thing the Thunder have going for them is a fortuitous position in the Western Conference. They do have formidable competition in teams like Dallas, Phoenix, Portland, Utah, Denver, San Antonio,and Houston. But these teams,with the exception of Portland, are all fading fast. The Thunder are quickly surpassing all those teams and soon all their energies will be focused on beating the Lakers. Which is similar to how the Bulls surpassed other Eastern Conference foes before having to overtake the Pistons. After the Thunder surpass the Lakers,they can then focus on beating the Heat. Although their path to a championship is challenging, it is a logical and focused path.

In contrast, the Heat's path to being champions will be clouded by immediate obstacles. They will be tested right out of the gate in the East. The Bulls added Boozer and are a good physical team. The Magic have Dwight Howard and are no pushover. The Hawks are strong, and of course the Celtics are the defending conference champs. And all signs point to Carmelo Anthony and Chris Paul coming to the East, possibly even to the same team. The Heat will be hit with immediate obstacles in the East, and in the Finals against the Lakers should both teams get there. This may be good for them because they will have rivals who will make them better. Or it could hurt them because the Heat are expected to win the title this year and will face mounting pressures if they struggle to find their team chemistry and stumble early on.

It's well past midnight now. The preseason football game that Jakus and I were half watching is long since over. And we've gone pretty far on this tangent. A tangent that began with Tony Dungy. The Tony Dungy theory, if you will. That theory being that more than any other factor good leadership is what builds a champion and a dynasty in sports. Leadership starts at the top with the ownership, and filters down through the organization to the management, coaches, and players, so that everyone is on the same page. It takes leadership, not supertalent. In the NBA, the Miami Heat are your classic "supertalent" team while the Oklahoma City Thunder have the leadership.

To have a championship team or a dynasty in sports, you need to have strong leadership. A leader follows through on his responsibilities and knows how to handle his business without needing to attract attention and glory for himself. He fully understands that winning is the ultimate purpose. The Thunder have a strong young leader in Kevin Durant. He led team USA to gold in the FIBAs, led the Thunder from the worst team in the league to a playoff team. And if the Thunder can get Duncan, their leadership will be that much stronger. The Heat don't have leaders. They have three star players who were too reluctant to be leaders of their own team and ran to their buddies for support. They couldn't overcome adversity by themselves in their careers, so they joined up with their friends. It is clear who exhibited the traits of a leader in the offseason and who didn't. Durant unassumingly signed an extension with the Thunder. LeBron did an ESPN special on who he signed his contract with. Bosh did a documentary about his momentous life changing decision. And after LeBron, Wade and Bosh all signed their new contracts, the three of them danced around together like a bunch of morons. LeBron, Wade, and Bosh were all afraid that they would not be able to live up to the responsibility on them as leaders of their own teams. That is why they are now playing together with the Heat.

LeBron was the self-proclaimed King. And everyone expected him to be the King of the NBA. The Cavs did everything they could to build a championship team around him. He had a responsibility to become the best player in the league with the Cavs and make them champions. But he folded under the pressure.  A real King builds his own dynasty with his own franchise. He doesn't go where some other star has built a reputation with a franchise and city. Even if he is to be the number 1 guy on that team.  LeBron could have recruited Bosh to join the Cavs, but instead he ran to join somebody else's team and franchise. He was afraid that he would be remembered as the guy who failed to win multiple championships and truly become the King of the NBA.  

Wade did not do all he could as a number 1 guy to win a championship of his own. He did win a championship, but that was with Shaq. Since Shaq left, he’s never had a really good team around him. With a good enough team, a player like Wade has the talent to win a championship of his own, without playing second fiddle to Shaq or LeBron. And now if Wade wins a championship it will be with the most physically gifted player in the league on his team. This is Dwayne freaking Wade for crying out loud! He shouldn't need LeBron to win a ring. He's a better all around player than LeBron, and even Kobe for that matter. He's a top notch passer, scorer, and defender. He has a good three point game, a good mid-range game, can score inside over big men, he's unselfish, and he's clutch. He's got all the tools to take on the elite teams of the NBA by himself. But he folded under the pressure to be the number 1 guy of the Heat and lead them to beat Lebron's team, or Dwight Howard's team, or Kobe's team. 

Bosh too did not live up to the responsibility that he had to the team that drafted him. He was afraid that he couldn't lead a playoff team with the Raptors that could compete with the teams of his peers. All the other players in his draft class - Carmelo, LeBron, Wade - have led their own teams deep into the playoffs. Bosh never has. And he never grew into the player who could do that on his own. Bosh has the talent to lead his own team and to be the best power forward of his generation. But instead of trying to do that, he jumped to a team where he shares the pressure he couldn’t handle on his own. 

The three star players on the Miami Heat have not firmly planted their own individual identity as players. They haven't shown yet what the most is that they can achieve on their own. By joining forces so soon in their careers, the Heat players are looking to form a collective identity as teammates before having completed the book on their own individual identities. They all want that identity to be as champions, but they haven't taken the time to develop and grow into championship players.

On the surface it appears that the Heat have a legitimate three star structure. LeBron is an alpha dog who has led his own team to the finals. Wade fits the resume of a number 2 because he's led the Heat as far as the second round of the playoffs on his own. Bosh looks like a number 3 because he's been an all-star but couldn't take his own team deep into the playoffs. But while they all are star players and there are three of them, we believe that they are not a legitimate three star structured team because they were formed unnaturally (through free agency), prematurely (before these players demonstrated the maximum that they could achieve as number 1s of their own teams), and out of fear (of the pressures to lead one's own championship franchise).

What LeBron, Wade, and Bosh did is immature, cowardly, and displays a sense of entitlement. Like a bunch of spoiled kids, they think that their talents entitle them to a championship ring. Secretly, they probably know that playing together is their only hope of preventing Kevin Durant from taking his rightful place as the next King of the NBA. The Heat may have three talented stars, but they severely lack leadership. If the Thunder can manage to get a number 3 star, then they will then have the NBA's next best leader, next best player, and a championship caliber team. From there, they will have all they need to beat the Heat and become the NBA's next dynasty.

My prediction for the new decade in basketball: the Heat will be what the Atlanta Braves were to baseball in the 1990s. Tons of talent, plenty of finals appearances, but known for choking in the big spots and coming up short on rings. The Thunder will be what the Yankees were in the 90s. Late bloomers, but a dynasty. Big on leadership and chemistry. Players who play their game with determination and appreciation. The team of the decade. Somewhere, Tony Dungy will be smiling.