New York Yankees vs. Minnesota Twins: Tale of the Tape
The ALDS between the New York Yankees and the Minnesota Twins is set to begin on Wednesday in Minneapolis at Target Field.
In years past this might have been billed as the typical David versus Goliath: small-market versus mega-market matchup. But with the Twins' opening-day payroll jumping from twenty-fourth to tenth this season, the underdog small-market role just doesn't seem to fit.
With that increase, Minnesota fans are hoping that the success the Yankees have over the Twins can be broken.
Since 2002, when Ron Gardenhire took over as manager, the Twins are 16-45 against New York in the regular season, a measly .262 winning percentage.
It only gets worse when the two teams meet in the post season, with the Yankees winning nine of 11 play-off games.
This year feels different though. This year, the Twins have the home-field advantage.
But can they finally get past the Evil Empire and advance beyond the divisional round?
Here's a look at how the Yankees and Twins stack up.
Starting Pitching—Who Holds The Higher Ace?
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There's no debate that the best pitcher in this series is Cy Young candidate C.C. Sabathia.
With 21 wins, and a 3.18 ERA, he leads both staffs.
But the Twins' starters have slightly better stats when you compare ERA and WHIP to that of the Yankees.
If you remove the contribution of the Game 1 starters, the gap widens.
Here's a look at the statistics for the post-season rotations:
New York: Sabathia, Andy Pettitte, Phil Hughes, A.J. Burnett—3.97 ERA and 1.30 WHIP.
Take Sabathia's numbers out of the equation and the ERA jumps to 4.36 and the WHIP to 1.35.
Minnesota: Francisco Liriano, Carl Pavano, Brian Duensing, Nick Blackburn—3.89 ERA and 1.27 WHIP
Remove Liriano, who will match up with the Yankees' ace, and the numbers barely change with the ERA increasing only by 0.1 to 3.99, and the WHIP to 1.28.
C.C. Sabathia has said he would be ready to start Game 4 if the Yankees needed him.
If the Twins can beat Sabathia, they stand a good chance of advancing.
Edge: Even
Can We Get a Little Relief Here?
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The Yankees' starters only have three complete games this season, while the Twins' Carl Pavano led the league with seven.
This means the bullpens could play a big role in the outcome of this series.
Both New York and Minnesota plan to go with 11 pitchers.
Here's a look how the middle relievers compare:
New York: Joba Chamberlain, Boone Logan, Sergio Mitre, Dustin Moseley, David Robertson, Kerry Woods: 318.1 innings pitched, 3.73 ERA, and a 1.33 WHIP.
Interestingly the Yankees are going with only one left-handed reliever with Logan.
Minnesota: Jesse Crain, Brian Fuentes, Matt Guerrier, Jose Mijares, Jon Rauch, Kevin Slowey: 393.2 innings pitched, 3.59 ERA, and a 1.22 WHIP.
Slowey, who started 28 games this season, has been moved to the bullpen with the five-man rotation.
The Twins' relievers for this series have pitched almost 75 more innings and given up 33 fewer walks (103 for Minnesota, 136 for New York.)
Edge: With a better ERA, WHIP and fewer walks—Minnesota.
Closing the Deal
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This one is not even close.
New York's Mariano Rivera has been the standard for closers in 14 of his 16 years in the majors.
Since becoming the Yankees' full-time closer in 1997 he has averaged 39.6 saves.
In 2010 he has 33 saves in 38 opportunities, with an incredible 1.80 ERA.
For Minnesota closer Matt Capps, acquired from Washington at the trade deadline, this will be his first taste of post-season play. He has converted 16 of 18 saves with a 2.00 ERA while pitching for the Twins this season.
It will be interesting to see how Capps handles the pressure, especially if he gets the chance at Yankee Stadium.
Edge: New York
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Let's Get Offensive—New York's Power, or Minnesota's Small Ball?
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New York's playoff roster has 199 of its 201 home runs, while Minnesota's, with the loss of Justin Morneau, only has 120 of its 142.
The Yankees get the edge in power, with two players hitting 30 or more home runs, and a total of five with at least 20.
The Twins can only boast of three players with at least twenty.
Home runs have been hard to come by at pitcher-friendly Target Field—that is, until the Toronto Blue Jays came to town to play out the season, and hit nine home runs in four games.
If the Twins are to advance, Target Field will need to turn those home runs into long outs.
Francisco Liriano was able to lead all AL starters in giving up the fewest home runs this season. The Twins will need that trend to continue as well.
Looking past home runs, the Twins exceed the Yankees are in doubles (283 for Minnesota compared to 260 for New York) and triples (40 for Minnesota, 30 for New York).
The Twins have the third-best batting average in the AL at .273, but the Yankees, seventh in the league at .267, are not that far behind.
The Yankees' 96 stolen bases are almost 30 more than the Twins (68).
The Yankees have outscored the Twins 859 to 781.
Edge: New York
Home Field Advantage
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The Minnesota Twins had been the hottest team in the American League in the second half of the season.
That is, until they clinched the AL Central. They finished the season going 2-8 in their final 10 games.
While the Twins went 48-26 in the second half, the Yankees were only 39-35. New York fared only slightly better than the Twins down the stretch, winning four of their last 10 games of the season.
The Yankees and Twins have very similar records at home and on the road.
The Twins were 53-28 at Target Field this season, while going only 41-40 on the road.
The Yankees' records were very close, going 52-29 at Yankee Stadium, and only two game better at 43-38 on the road.
Where the Twins may have an advantage is their record in one-run games.
The post season tends to lead to close games and the Twins were 31-23 in one-run games, while the Yankees were only 20-19.
This series will come down to the team that can take advantage of their home field.
Edge: With three games at Target Field—Minnesota.
The Ever-Important Intangibles
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New York has the momentum, having beaten Minnesota with ease in the regular season as well as the postseason since Ron Gardenhire has managed the Twins.
They have the swagger as the reigning World Series Champions, and tradition on their side with a record 27 championships.
The Twins, on their side, have the aura of a new ballpark, and the home-field advantage.
The Yankees have playoff experience at every position, while for many of the Twins they have never been past the the divisional round of the playoffs.
Edge: New York
Who Advances to The ALCS?
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I see the Yankees winning the series three games to two.
A lot will depend on the first game—the first inning of the first game.
If Francisco Liriano can get out of the first inning, settle down and battle with C.C. Sabathia, then the Twins have a chance.
If not, it will be another first-round exit for the Twins.
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