College Football Week 5: The Coach Potato Guide To the Best Saturday Yet
A month into the college season, the landscape is very exciting. Not only does the conference season kick into full swing this week, but there are a handful of really great matchups that feature highly ranked teams.
This is the week that the contenders start to overshadow the pretenders.
Here is a guide to the top games and which ones you should follow most closely.
No. 10: Miami (#16) at Clemson
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Star Power: Clemson’s Andre Ellington hasn’t quite made Tiger fans forget the name C.J. Spiller, but he did play a tremendous game last week against Auburn. The surprising sophomore rushed for 140 yards on 22 carries and scored the critical game-tying touchdown in the fourth quarter.
And then there is Jacory Harris, who seems to have regressed from his fine 2009 season. At this point in the season, an elite quarterback shouldn’t have the same number of INTs (6) that he has touchdown passes. Sooner or later, Harris will return to his post as (arguably) the top QB in the ACC.
Potential Drama: Clemson is coming off a tough loss last week against Auburn and will be hungry for a win, especially one in-conference. Last year in South Florida, these two played an overtime thriller, with the Tigers coming out on top.
Three interceptions from Harris kept the underdog Tigers in the game and if that should happen again, the Hurricanes will be staring at a .500 record.
Title Impact: While this is an interdivisional ACC battle, a lot is at stake. Both teams need conference victories to keep pace with the current leaders. Neither team has a shot at the national championship, but the journey towards a spot in ACC title game, and the ensuing BCS bowl, starts here.
Predicted Final Score: Clemson 44, Miami 40.
No. 9: Ohio State (#2) at Illinois
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Star Power: Terrelle Pryor is obviously the big star for the Buckeyes. The game is going to be tight enough for him to post major Heisman-worthy numbers this week. The Illinois offense cannot compete with Ohio State in terms of flash.
But running back Mikel Leshoure has posted 100 yards each week this season. Ron Zook will try to stay patient and pound Leshoure, hoping to control the clock and keep Pryor on the sidelines.
Potential Drama: For whatever reason, the Illini have fought Ohio State very tough throughout the last decade. The talent disparity is usually huge but that doesn’t seem to matter when these two square off. Aside from 2009 and 2005, every one of these games has been decided by 10 points or fewer.
And, in the last three visits to Champaign, the Buckeyes have two narrow victories along with their overtime scare during the 2002 National Championship season. Illinois always gets up for this game.
Title Impact: Ohio State can take their first step to another Big Ten crown with a win over the Illini. So can Illinois, but that’s a pretty tall order.
Predicted Final Score: Ohio State 41, Illinois 20.
No. 8: Washington at USC (#18)
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Star Power: Trojans quarterback Matt Barkley has been fantastic thus far and might lead the nation in touchdown passes this season. But his counterpart, Jake Locker, is the real star here. Yes, his numbers have not been very impressive this season and he was awful last week as the Huskies were blown out by Nebraska.
Expect a major turnaround this week. USC’s defense has not defended the pass well this season: See the Hawaii game.
Potential Drama: We all know what happened last year when the Trojans were stunned at Washington. This time, the battle comes to the Coliseum, so the Trojans should brush off the 1-2 Huskies.
Lane Kiffin or Pete Carroll, it doesn’t matter: USC has a penchant for playing down to their opponent. And maybe the Huskies learned something about playing Top 25 competition last week.
Title Impact: If USC wants to bring more people on board the bandwagon, a big victory this week before the home crowd would be a start. The Trojans haven’t started 2-0 in the Pac-10 since 2007.
Predicted Final Score: USC 50, Washington 21.
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No. 7: Michigan (#19) at Indiana
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Star Power: Guess who? Denard Robinson, obviously. But with Terrell Pryor and Robinson making so much national news, the other Big Ten quarterback in this game has been overlooked.
Indiana’s Ben Chappell is very quietly having a great season. He has nine touchdowns against no interceptions and is averaging just under 300 yards per game. Granted, they haven’t played stellar opponents, but neither has Michigan.
Potential Drama: Like their quarterback, Indiana has flown under the radar this year and is off to a great start at 3-0. Still, that isn’t enough to expect them to hang with the Wolverines. But injuries to Michigan’s No. 2-ranked (nationally) rushing offense are.
Expect Robinson to play, but both running backs Mike Shaw and Fitz Toussaint have missed a lot of practice reps this week. And if something should happen to Robinson, Tate Forcier was outstanding last week (12 for 12). That could become an intriguing situation if Robinson’s injury lingers.
Title Impact: If the Wolverines expect to be in a BCS bowl this year, they certainly need to stay undefeated in the Big Ten prior to the annual showdown with the Buckeyes. A loss here would most likely guarantee a spot outside the top two when the conference season is over.
For Indiana, a win over their nationally ranked neighbor would be huge. And at 4-0, they wouldn’t dare think about a conference title this early. But it would be a huge win for the program.
Predicted Final Score: Michigan 27, Indiana 14.
No. 6: TCU (#5) at Colorado State
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Star Power: What TCU lacks in NFL first-round talent, they make up for in depth. Andy Dalton has been fairly average at quarterback this season, and the running game has been pretty solid, but it’s going to be up to TCU’s defense to remain in the hunt for a BCS title game bid.
As safety Tejay Johnson showed last week against SMU, TCU has playmakers capable of breaking a game wide open.
Potential Drama: The last time that the Horned Frogs headed up north to Fort Collins, the Rams put up one hell of a fight. Colorado State’s defense handcuffed TCU all afternoon, allowing just two scores during a 13-7 loss in which neither team scored in the second half.
With the Horned Frogs offense struggling a bit, CSU’s defense is capable of turning out another effort as they did in 2008.
Title Impact: TCU didn’t look all that impressive last week in their win over SMU, and if they want to keep their No. 4 ranking, they must make a statement this week. The Mountain West seems to belong to the Horned Frogs, so they are looking towards the BCS title game.
Predicted Final Score: TCU 20, Colorado State 17 (OT).
No. 5: Penn State (#22) at Iowa (#17)
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Star Power: After bursting on the scene last season during Iowa’s great September/October, quarterback Ricky Stanzi has been fantastic this year. Even in the team’s tough road loss at Arizona, the senior’s playmaking kept his team in the game.
Nittany Lions senior running back Evan Royster will be the workhorse this week for Coach Paterno. Maybe that 187-yard performance against Temple last week will jump-start his season.
Potential Drama: These two have played some electric games in recent years, most notably the crushing loss that Penn State suffered in 2008. In that game, the Hawkeyes ruined Penn State’s bid for an undefeated season, defeating the 9-0 Nittany Lions in the final seconds.
And last season, at Happy Valley, Iowa’s unbelievable fourth-quarter comeback put the Hawkeyes in position for a BCS bowl game. There’s just something special when Paterno meets Kirk Ferentz’ team.
Title Impact: Because each team’s lone defeat this year came during out-of-conference road games against ranked teams, both Iowa and Penn State deserve their national ranking.
But the winner of this game (along with the winner of the next entry on this list) will have the inside track at scooping up the conference title, should OSU be upset this year….before the Michigan game, of course.
Predicted Final Score: Iowa 31, Penn State 30.
No. 4: Wisconsin (#11) at Michigan State (#24)
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Star Power: For the Spartans, coach Dantonio is probably the team's biggest star, thanks to his fake-field goal call then mild heart attack; but Michigan State’s backfield is what has made them one of the nation’s early surprises.
Edwin Baker and Le’Veon Bell have totaled more than 800 yards in four games, and with Kirk Cousins playing great as well, the Spartan offense is fantastic. In terms of statistics, Wisconsin’s John Clay has been better than either one of the Michigan State backs.
But he needs to do it in-conference, against a quality opponent, to be considered a top back in the Big Ten.
Potential Drama: Like so many October Big Ten games, this one will feature a familiar script: lots of running, good defense, and a very closely contested game that comes down to the final minutes. That always makes for drama.
Title Impact: With both teams undefeated, this game features a bit more juice than the Penn State-Iowa matchup, although the same Big Ten implications are on the line. At 5-0, with an in-conference victory against a ranked team, the winner of this game has to be considered a legitimate threat to Ohio State.
Predicted Final Score: Michigan State 24, Wisconsin 21.
No. 3: Texas (#21) Vs. Oklahoma (#8) (Neutral Site)
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Star Power: As of now, the Landry Jones-Garrett Gilbert quarterback matchup doesn’t have the same pizzazz as some of the earlier Red River shootouts: Chris Simms vs. Jason White; Vince Young vs. Rhett Bomar and, of course, Sam Bradford vs. Colt McCoy.
So maybe the real star power here comes from the Bob Stoops-Mack Brown rivalry. Stoops has a 6-5 lead prior to the 2010 edition.
Potential Drama: This game is almost always a classic, so it should be close. But the way in which Texas’ run defense rebounds from being embarrassed by UCLA last week will determine this year’s winner. Oklahoma’s 88th-ranked running attack needs to be better than it has been in order to take advantage.
Title Impact: Texas blew its national championship hopes last week, but they can still win the Big XII South and gain an appearance in the Championship Game in December. For Oklahoma, a win won’t boost them in the national standings as it would have if UT hadn’t lost last week. Now, a win over their rival is expected.
Predicted Final Score: Texas 17, Oklahoma 13.
No. 2: Stanford (#9) at Oregon (#4)
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Star Power: Fullback/linebacker Owen Marecic earned a lot of publicity last week for his touchdown run and interception dual performance, but Andrew Luck is the reason the Cardinal are major players in the BCS this season.
Anytime a quarterback is as efficient as he has been (11 TDs, 2 INTs) it makes things a lot easier. The Ducks might feature the most underrated running back in the nation in LaMichael James, who rushed for over 1,500 yards last season. In three starts this year, he is averaging more than 150 yards per game.
He’s the main reason that Oregon has the No.4-ranked running game in college football.
Potential Drama: It’s a breath of fresh air to see a critical Pac-10 game with major national championship implications that doesn’t include USC, so there is natural drama in that change of scenery. But what should make this game a real thriller is the offense. Each team is capable of putting up half-a-hundred, no matter who their opponent is.
Title Impact: The winner of this game will be the favorite to take the conference crown and, since Alabama and Ohio State will each have daunting end-of-the-season games, an undefeated Pac-10 Champion should be a shoo-in for the BCS title game.
Predicted Final Score: Stanford 51, Oregon 48 (3 OT).
No. 1: Florida (#7) at Alabama (#1)
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Star Power: The reigning Heisman Trophy winner, Mark Ingram, played like it in last week’s great comeback on the road against a fired-up Arkansas team. Forget about his knee injury and the games he missed costing him votes: He catapulted back into the Heisman Trophy race last week.
Another performance like that against the hated Gators could make him the front-runner to repeat. He’s not exactly Tim Tebow, but Trey Burton’s five-touchdown effort last week at Kentucky makes the Gators a much more viable red-zone threat.
As much as John Brantley does, Burton’s change of pace and wealth of talent will be huge this week against that fantastic Tide defense.
Potential Drama: This is a matchup of the last two national champions, an SEC showdown of the conference’s undisputed elites and a classic conference rematch of the past two SEC title games. There’s going to be drama. Need we say more?
Title Impact: Everything is on the line here. The loser isn’t necessarily out of it in terms of the conference or a national title appearance. But with Boise State, TCU, and the Oregon-Stanford matchup on the horizon, it would be an uphill climb.
Alabama could probably recover from a loss, should they win out; Florida, not so much. But you have to assume that a Gator upset, on the road, against the reigning champs, would leapfrog them over the non-BCS conference contenders, Boise and TCU.
Predicted Final Score: Alabama 24, Florida 7.
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