If the L.A. Lakers and Miami Heat Fail To Reach the NBA Finals, Who Will?

The Los Angeles Lakers and Miami Heat are favored to meet in the 2011 NBA Finals, but contrary to popular opinion, there is no guarantee that either team will make it.

NBA commissioner David Stern must be giddy with anticipation of a potential Finals' matchup featuring three of the game's top five players in Kobe Bryant, Dwyane Wade, and LeBron James, but there are numerous factors to consider before June.

Both teams must be able to escape the injury bug that nearly derailed the Lakers' championship march last season, and in Miami's case, a loss of either Wade or James would probably be insurmountable.

Miami has other talent besides Wade and James, but those two players give the Heat something that no other team can boast of in two top-five talents.

Wade and James will be the most dominant players at their position in the majority of games they play. But if either misses significant time due to injury, is Bosh capable of dominating his match-up in the same manner?

Not likely.

Bosh is a great talent to be sure, but the gap between him and other power forwards is much smaller than the chasm that exists between Wade, James, and their contemporaries.

Miami would be extremely competitive without James or Wade, but it's hard to see them reaching the NBA Finals on the backs of Bosh, and Wade or James alone.

In fact, there is a strong chance that Bosh, Wade, and James could be healthy all season long and still fail to reach the Finals, because of other intangibles such as chemistry.

It's cool to speculate on how far the Heat's potential could carry them in the postseason. But until they play a single regular-season game who knows how they will perform as a unit?

I'm aware of the fact that all three are great friends and they have experience playing together on the U.S. National team, and various NBA All-Star teams, all of which means absolutely nothing.

The defenseless All-Star game should never be used as an example to prove chemistry, and like the All-Star rosters, the U.S. team was filled with other superior players.

It's hard to look bad when every one of your teammates is at least a semi-elite player.

The playoffs are entirely different than anything a player sees on the world stage, and it's much harder to defeat a seasoned postseason team in a seven-game series.

Beyond those issues, there is also the question of what type of quality play the Heat will receive in the interior from other players not named Bosh.

Other teams such as Boston, Chicago, and Orlando hold a decisive edge over Miami in the paint. That advantage is magnified in the postseason, when the tempo of the game slows down.

The Lakers have less questions to answer heading into the 2010-11 season, but they are still vulnerable to some of the same issues facing Miami.

Bryant's broken finger and gimpy knee barely held up during last year's playoffs, and center Andrew Bynum suffered yet another knee injury that could have had disastrous implications.

Bynum's ability to play through the pain of a torn meniscus may have been the difference in the Lakers' Finals victory over the Celtics last season, and he is not slated to return until at least November.

Los Angeles also must hope that newcomers Matt Barnes, Steve Blake, and Theo Ratliff have no trouble assimilating with the team, particularly on offense.

Ron Artest struggled to grasp the tendencies of the triangle offense last season, and didn't really look comfortable until the postseason, but it may be necessary for the new Lakers to catch on more quickly.

Especially Blake.

Blake is not expected to be the Lakers' savior at the point guard position, but it is imperative that he demonstrates that he is capable of running the team efficiently.

Blake may be the single most important addition to the team in the offseason, and his three-point shooting, defense, and steady hand are all expected to be upgrades in the Lakers' backcourt.

If Blake and the newcomers catch on quickly and the Lakers can manage to avoid any significant injuries, then they should be able to concentrate on the complacency that has constantly dogged them in recent years.

Los Angeles is notorious for cruising through the regular season, and then increasing their energy and intensity as the postseason approaches.

So far the ability to "turn it on" has saved the Lakers in the playoffs, but that is a dangerous path to walk, and one that could possibly come back to haunt the team when it matters the most.

Los Angeles and Miami both have the talent to conquer the obstacles mentioned above, but if both teams slip, who will rise up to replace them in the 2011 NBA Finals?

In the East, Boston, Orlando, and Chicago figure to be the main challengers to Miami, and the Celtics could actually make the claim that they should be favored, instead.

Boston was a quarter away from winning their second championship in two years. All their primary players return, in addition to some more interior help in the form of Shaquille O'Neal.

Boston already had an interior advantage over Miami, and O'Neal and Jermaine O'Neal only increase the potency of the Celtics' inside game.

If Kendrick Perkins is able to make a healthy return from a knee injury suffered in the Finals, then the Celtics have a front line that potentially rivals the Lakers as the NBA's best.

Perkins, the O'Neal's, Kevin Garnett, and Glen Davis are more talented than most of the frontcourt players on Miami's roster, and if they can exploit their advantage with Rajon Rondo at point guard, an upset is definitely possible.

Orlando and Chicago are longer shots because the sum of Bosh, Wade, and James may be equal to or greater than anything Chicago or Orlando can counter with.

The Bulls have an advantage in the interior over Miami and at point guard with Derrick Rose, but Chicago's other perimeter players will be a question mark during the postseason.

Kyle Korver is certainly a long-distance threat for the Bulls, but his poor defense also makes him a liability, and although Ronnie Brewer is a decent player, he doesn't have game-changing talent.

Orlando also has an advantage over Miami in the paint with NBA Defensive Player of the Year Dwight Howard, but the Heat can neutralize Howard with their perimeter players.

Orlando's offense is based on opposing defenses collapsing on Howard in the paint, which usually opens up the perimeter players for uncontested three-point shots.

But James and Wade are disciplined enough to stay with their men on the perimeter, and the Heat have enough post players to battle with Howard down low.

If Orlando's perimeter shots are not falling, does Howard have the ability to carry the Magic's offense by himself?

In the West, most observers consider Oklahoma City the popular choice to knock off the Lakers, but that may not be the most logical choice.

Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook are great players, but there is not enough balance on the roster to defeat a team like the Lakers in a seven-game series.

The young Thunder have no player who can be considered a true interior threat, and if Westbrook and Durant are unable to score points, then who will?

If the Lakers fail to reach the Finals, their defeat will likely come at the hands of a more experienced, complete team such as Dallas, Portland, or San Antonio.

All three of those teams are able to get points from the post or perimeter, and they may be the only teams in the West who can match the depth of the Lakers' bench.

Dallas rivals the Lakers on paper in terms of talent, but they must first prove they have the heart to succeed in the postseason.

Few people outside of Texas feel the Mavericks have the inner-resolve needed to compete in the playoffs, and getting past the first round may be a more realistic goal.

The Trail Blazers have similar talent to the Lakers and their own elite guard in Brandon Roy, but injuries have become a problem for the young team.

Center Greg Oden recently announced that he had no idea when he would be able to make his return from injury, and without Oden, the Blazers don't have a chance of defeating the Lakers in seven games.

LaMarcus Aldridge is on the verge of stardom, and Joel Pryzbilla is an adequate substitute for Oden, but the interior combination of Pau Gasol, Bynum, and Lamar Odom is still to much for Portland to overcome minus Oden.

San Antonio may be the most intriguing team of all because they have their own championship pedigree, and one of the game's greatest players in forward Tim Duncan.

Age and injuries have been the main obstacles facing the Spurs, but if Duncan, Tony Parker, and Manu Ginobili can remain injury-free, their experience could cause the Lakers trouble in the postseason.

More importantly, the Spurs are the only team out of the three mentioned who have actually beaten the Lakers in the playoffs, and if they do happen to meet next season, they can draw from that experience.

I expect both the Lakers and Heat to make a strong push for the 2011 Finals, in what would possibly be the most-viewed NBA championship series in history.

But if either team falters, Boston, Orlando, Chicago, Dallas, San Antonio, and Portland will be waiting in the wings for their chance to replace them.