The Respective Greatness Of Ray Allen, Kevin Durant, and Dwyane Wade
As in every offseason, writers this summer have been churning out Power Rankings articles on the players in the NBA, relying on their own implied systems of checks and balances, values and opinions.
Some trends are expected-- the consensus top 5 players generally include Kobe Bryant, Lebron James, and Dwyane Wade. These three players have remarkable combinations of years of impressive statistics, unforgettable highlights, and undeniable skill that make them virtually impossible to disregard when discussing the best.
As for the order they're placed in, that varies from fan to fan, because there is no universal standard for evaluating this or that player's greatness.
Having read countless of these articles myself this year, I decided to outline exactly how I personally measure which players rank above others on my list, and why. As indicated in the title, this article will feature three of the more respected wing players in the league, because comparing across roles (i.e., comparing Rondo to Gasol to Brandon Roy) is and will always be misleading.
Why I Chose These 3
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The balance of power shifted somewhat in the latter part of the 2009-2010 season. Three of the biggest story lines at the time were those of the Thunder, Celtics, and Heat.
The Thunder were surprising everyone (including themselves) coming off huge wins against Dallas, Los Angeles, and Boston, and were in contention (along with 6 other teams) for the 2nd seed in the Western Conference.
The Celtics were grossly underachieving and many people anticipated a 1st round exit from them, to either Atlanta or Milwaukee. Ray Allen showed signs of slowing down, and he showed them often. 12 times in the second half of the season, the Celtics blew double digit leads and lost games, resulting in a very pedestrian .500 record after the Allstar break.
And Miami was picking up the pace, led by Wade. After a forgettable start to the season, Wade elevated his play more and more as time went on, assuring his team a playoff berth that it almost appeared they were going to miss out on. It was too late, however, for him to reassert himself as an MVP candidate, as Lebron had the media's minds all but made up.
Kevin Durant
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Since then, Durant's popularity has exploded, from overlooked to idolized, in the span of 5 months. Most people have had time to formulate their opinions about him, and a lot of them are negative while still others are too positive.
This results in one of the more unique situations when amateur writers take it upon themselves to grade "the best" in relation to each other; to some, Durant's greatness is on par with the greatest stars in the league, while others see him as a 2nd or 3rd tier superstar whose game has too many holes to be considered an elite one.
Some rank him at 11th, behind players like Bosh, Anthony, and Duncan, while others consider elevating him above Dwyane Wade, Kobe Bryant, or Lebron James, the consensus top 3 active players.
Obviously, there are many varying factors that people regard, but this disparity in opinion is almost unforgivable and begs an explanation.
I thought a player like Durant, whose value in relation to his peers fluctuates seemingly daily, would be an excellent example player to attempt to evaluate.
Dwyane Wade
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Dwyane Wade is here as a representative from the top 3. Kobe or Lebron would have done just as well, but most NBA fans have difficulty accurately considering either of those guys, due to personal bias or vendetta.
Another interesting subplot that makes Wade interesting to discuss is the recent penchant by notable characters (like Steve Kerr and Kenny Smith) to compare Durant to him. Miami fans greet such sentiments with incredulity, and most others are skeptical at the least. I prefer to explore whether such an argument may be valid.
Wade is accomplished, charismatic, explosive, and understands the game like few others. Pre-injury, he teamed with Shaq for a championship run, and the past two years have been every bit as spectacular.
Ray Allen
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I chose Ray as a control factor. He represents all non-top 10 wing players and one can't help but question why exactly Durant and Wade are always rated above him. He's the one with two finals appearances in three years, after all.
Recognizable, respected, and bound for the Hall of Fame, Ray has never been considered one of the best in the league. In this article, I want to show-- or at least explore-- why.
An Operational Definition For "Greatness"
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We each call it our own thing and look at it in our own way. Some use algorithms, some rely on gut feelings and predispositions.
Regardless of how we do it, eventually each of us are able to ascertain exactly who we think is the best and why we think so.
For this study, I'll define greatness solely as impact. The completeness of a player's impact on each game, each season, each of his teammates, and their post season campaigns.
From a cursory look at the game, the most obvious manifestation of a player's impact is his ability to Score. Similarly, a breathtaking array of Skills is a much-celebrated facet of most popular players.
Defense is another major aspect that people enjoy debating.
Inevitably, the elusive subject of Leadership will come up as well.
Not mentioned as often, though acknowledged as important, are the areas of cohesion and consistency.
With these elements in mind, here are the ratios we can consider when discussing a player's greatness.
Scoring 25%
Defense 10%
Leadership 35%
Cohesiveness 15%
Consistency 15%
This is an incredibly subjective grading system, but basketball is an incredibly subjective game.
What We Wont Discuss
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Now that we have define "greatness" as a player's ability to impact a game, there are some things that we won't be able to consider when talking about which players are better than others. Rings, awards, distinctions, and "logic" as it pertains to hypothetical situations will all be disregarded in this report.
Scoring and Skill-Set
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Most people greatly over-value a player's abilities and skills. That having been said, basketball is definitely a game that has a lot to do with skill, so it is a huge part of any player's game. I think it should account for roughly 1/4th of a player's greatness.
This broad category "scoring and skill-set" is to attempt to level the playing field between players like Durant and Wade, who fill different roles on their teams, and excel in different areas.
For our purposes we'll include rebounding, dribbling, scoring, shooting, footwork, post-offense and athleticism.
Dwyane Wade
Has an amazing skill-set, especially for his size. At 6'4", he handles the ball better than most point guards and finishes better than most (if not all) shooting guards. His mid-range shooting is underrated, and he's an effective volume scorer and is an above average athlete. The biggest knock against him is his lack of an outside shot, as most players his size are more effective than he is at shooting 3's and long 2's. In this area, I would give him 24 points, out of 25.
Kevin Durant
Also has an impressive skill-set for his size. Last season he made 30 points a game at the mind-boggling rate of 1.48 points per shot, on par with Lebron James and beating out all of the other top scorers. At 6'10", he dribbles better than a lot of small forwards, yet finishes more consistently and with more authority than most power forwards. Amazingly, Durant led the league in minutes played last season, speaking to his underrated athleticism. Not many small forwards are better at dragging down rebounds, and he has the strength and quickness to get to the rim at will, as well. Out of 25, I don't see giving him lower than 22, based on his dribbling and post play, which could both stand to improve.
Ray Allen
is losing a lot of his ability as the years go by. Though his shooting is still considered elite in the league, his quickness has diminished to the point where he can no longer penetrate effectively and often. That having been said, he remains aesthetically pleasing on his drives to the rim, and surprised people last season by his occasionally finishes above the rim. We can give him an arbitrary 15 points out of 25, as there are many players far more athletic, better rebounders, and far more capable of running an offense.
Defense
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Defense only accounts for 10% of a player's greatness in my opinion. Most NBA fans would think that this is far undervaluing it, and many would follow up that assertion with the observation that "defense is half the game."
So why only 10%? First, actual "bad defenders" (Steve Nash, Kevin Martin, etc) are few and far between in this league, as most of the players who get minutes are superb athletes who give maximum effort to get playing time. To say that Carlos Boozer or Carmelo Anthony is a bad defender is misguided statement based off raw numbers and hearsay.
Second, because defense is a team skill. Most of the top players (Durant, Kobe, Lebron, Wade) play for top defensive teams. Each guy plays a part in that team defense, and all four of them play in spectacularly stingy systems. Though some people rave about Kobe's, Wade's, or Lebron's ability to "lock-down" on someone late in a game, there is a misconception that they are any better at it than anyone else.
Always, these players receive help from their teammates and coaches. Defense is indeed half the game, but that can only be considered when evaluating teams, not players. From player to player and system to system, it is entirely too subjective to grade someone accurately.
With that in mind, we can still attempt to grade our three players defensively.
Dwyane Wade
Is generally considered an elite defender. Indeed, his footwork on defense is excellent and he often leads all guards in blocked shots. He can contain and pressure guards into making bad decisions and turnovers, and is as good at anyone at contesting attempts. His defense is not perfect (like Sefolosha or Battier) but he definitely earns a 9 out of 10.
Durant
A year ago, Durant was nearly the worst defender in the league. He was one of the only stars in the league whose team was far better on both ends with him on the bench. Last year, that changed, and Durant's defense see-sawed to the best on his team, as shown here. Statistics do not tell the whole story, but they do show one of the greatest single-season defensive improvements of any player ever. In the first round of the playoffs, in the close game 3, Durant shut down Kobe Bryant in the 4th quarter, cutting off his penetration and contesting or blocking several long-range jumpshots. Out of 10, Durant now deserves at least 8, never taking possessions off, hustling, rotating well, and effectively defending 4 positions well.
Ray Allen
Is as good a defender as anyone his age, despite being incredibly underrated on defense. He forces opponents into tough shots, knows when to take a foul, and quietly tries to unnerve and get in his opponent's head. As I said before, most starters on good defensive teams are good individual defenders, and Ray is no different. 9 of 10.
Leadership
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Incredibly vague, but incredibly central to the game, is a player's competitiveness and leadership. In a way, this is the only thing that separates Michael Jordan from Joe Johnson.
The ability to show up when it matters, hit the shot to stop a run, read a play to change a game's momentum; this immeasurable quality is what makes GM's spend millions on players like Gilbert Arenas-- players that are the difference between a 20 win team and a 50 win team.
I value it very highly, because I think it pertains most closely to a player's impact on his team's season and playoff run. What else, after all, separates Chauncey Billups from the ever-increasing myriad of younger, more athletic point guards who nip at his heels year after year?
This one attribute separates players in the top 10 from the rest of the pack, though it may be difficult to understand exactly why.
Dwyane Wade
Is an accomplished and confident leader whose late game heroics time after time speak for themselves. Though Kobe may have netted more "Game-winners" last season, both he and Wade are elite leaders. I give him 35 out of 35 possible points for his unnatural ability to raise his game when it matters the most.
Kevin Durant
Is his team's go-to guy, and he's capable of hitting big shots that matter, dating even back to his rookie season. Always claiming that he tries to "lead by example", Durant keeps his teammates sharp on defense and has a great feel for when to take over and bail his team out.
His accomplishments in the FIBA tournament must be taken with a grain of salt, as the individual defense was worse than he would encounter in a college game, but it must still be noted that Durant bailed out a ton of bad possessions for Team USA, in the loudest and most hostile environment any NBA player has ever played in.
Whether that "killer instinct" translates to his game next year remains to be seen. However, as a developing Tim Duncan/Kobe Bryant like leader, Durant is one of the top leaders in the league, knowing when to be vocal, when to step up, and how to win games. 34 out of 35.
Ray Allen
Really isn't a leader. He seems very comfortable deferring to Pierce, Garnett and Rondo, and all but disappears when his team needs a big play. The ultimate role-playing SG, Allen's role is not that of a leader at all. His mental toughness came into question last season as well, as the Celtics lost game after game due to poor late-game performance. Out of 35 points, I'd give him an arbitrary 16.
Cohesiveness
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By cohesiveness, I mean mainly a player's effectiveness on the team he is on.
For instance, Tim Duncan is regarded as one of the all time great big men, but had he played his whole career for D'Antoni alongside Steve Nash, that might be different. Or, if Duncan had spent his whole career in Orlando, he may not have 4 rings right now. As it so happened, the great Fundamental flourished like few others last decade in a system that fit him perfectly.
Consider Ariza and Artest. Both were considered amazing and underrated small forwards a year ago, until they switched teams and struggled mightily.
Elton Brand had a great thing going until he left LAC. Stoudemire is expected by many to play poorly this year in New York. Vince Carter, Richard Jefferson, and Hedo Turkoglu became bad jokes after switching clubs last year.
My point is, many players are products of their teams. Their ability to thrive in the system they are in often is what separates them from being bad players to being good players. It is the reason Duncan had a better career than Al Jefferson.
Dwyane Wade
Spent all of last complaining at his organization. He was unable to thrive alongside the talent of Anthony, Haslem, Richardson, and Beasley, all but blaming those around him for their collective inability to succeed. Despite filling the highlight reels with impressive passes, he struggled to find a cohesion with his team and it was evidenced in their win-total. This is the only thing that hindered his greatness last year, and I'd give him 10 of 15 possible points.
Kevin Durant
Is purported to be a great teammate. Eager to elevate those around him and shoulder the blame for his post season woes, Durant has built genuine trust with everyone in his organization, and the connection between him and everyone on his team is almost palpable. They share a special bond like few other teams in the league, and it translated directly into wins last year, as Durant fit into his role effortlessly and unselfishly helped guide his team to a playoff berth. 15 or 15.
Ray Allen
Is a great teammate as well. He fits into his role on the Celtics and is one of the best in the league at doing so. That cohesion propelled this team straight to the Finals, past the turbulent Cavaliers and Magic. It is a truly undervalued component of a player's game, and is the only way to explain the Celtic's success.
Consistency
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Yeah, yeah, consistency. We hear about it all the time. Why is it important? Because one bad series (Dwight Howard, Lebron James, Kevin Durant, etc.) and your season is over.
Consistency is a player's ability to give it his all and do it every night. Lebron and Durant certainly attempt to do so, and they are the two most consistent volume scorers in the league. In fact, most top 10 players are considered to be so because of they show up night in and night out. In the case of our three guys, it's pretty straight forward.
Dwyane Wade
Is consistent. 15 of 15.
Kevin Durant
Is consistent, at least through the regular season. 13 of 15.
Ray Allen
Is woefully inconsistent, except as a longrange shooter. 10 of 15.
So.... The Grades?
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You probably hated my system. It makes sense to me. You can try it out on other players, and for the most part you'll be more than pleased with the results.
In this case?
Dwyane Wade - 94
Kevin Durant - 92
Ray Allen - 65
These aren't video game ratings-- Ray has an 80 rating in leading video games. This is a measure of a player's impact on the games he plays, and it looks pretty accurate to me.
Wade is perhaps lower than many would expect him to be, Durant certainly is a top 6 or 7 player, and Ray Allen no longer has the impact that he used to.
The gap between the first two is very small, only because last season Durant played better for his team than Wade played for his. In all other categories, Wade is superior, and both of them dominate Ray at everything.
