Andrea Bargnani vs. Danilo Gallinari: The Italian Stallion Showdown

3GotGame's NBA Analytiks recently analyzed Andrea Bargnani's fantasy potential and I thought I would expand on that some more with pertinent questions for our fantasy fans…who would you rather take in a keeper draft—Andrea Bargnani, or his countryman Danilo Gallinari?

We can call this the Italian Stallion Showdown!

Let's start off with some comparisons:

Profile

Gallinari – SF, Height: 6’10 / Weight: 225 lbs. / Born: Aug. 8, 1988
Bargnani – PF/C, Height: 7’0’’ / Weight: 250 lbs. / Born: Oct. 25, 1985

Edge: Bargnani

Bargnani is bigger and taller, and generally power forwards and centers who shoot threes are rare. Gallinari being three years younger does make it close; however, remember we’re talking keeper league.

Stats

2009-10	GP	MPG	FG%	FT%	3PTM	PPG	Reb	Ast	TO	Stl	Blk
Bargnani	80	35	47.0%	77.4%	1.5	17.2	6.2	1.2	1.5	0.3	1.4
Gallinari	81	34	42.3%	81.8%	2.3	15.1	4.9	1.7	1.4	0.9	0.7

Edge: Gallinari

Gallinari wins 5-4 with higher free-throw percentage, three-pointers made, assists, steals, and fewer turnovers. Also, his being three years younger makes upside on these figures more likely to improve.

Scouting Reports

John Hollinger (ESPN) said about…

Bargnani

“An unorthodox player with a quick, line-drive release that's accurate out to the three-point line, Bargnani still hasn't figured out that right-handed players should jab step with the right foot. He constantly pivots off that foot instead, producing some very odd-looking jab-and-go moves, but he seems comfortable with it and occasionally throws off defenders with its sheer weirdness.

When Bargnani puts the ball on the floor he virtually never passes, almost always opting for a pull-up after one dribble but occasionally going all the way to the basket. He took the latter option much more often last season, adding some much-needed variety to his game. Defensively, Bargnani is Charmin-soft.

He's a pitiful rebounder and often doesn't seem to be trying. While his effort improved toward the end of last season, it still has long way to go, particularly when it comes to help defense and getting back in transition.”

Gallinari

“A talented offensive player whom some compare to Toni Kukoc, Gallinari is 6'10", but tends to play the perimeter. He lacks strength, so playing the post is out, and he doesn't have great speed. However, he can handle and shoot the ball and has a good feel for the game.  His lack of strength and athleticism is an issue on D too, where he's a soft rebounder and an easy mark for opposing post players.”

Chad Ford (ESPN) said about…

Bargnani

"Positives: The lithe seven-footer often gets compared to Dirk Nowitzki because of his versatility, ball-handling skills, and his silky-smooth jumper. He likes to play out on the perimeter and can really do it all from out there. He's also picked up the rep as a very solid defender. While he's not quite the athlete that Nowitzki is, he's more athletic than it appears at first glance.

Negatives: Scouts aren't totally clear what position he'll play in the pros. Is he quick enough to guard threes? Is he strong enough and aggressive enough to guard fours? Bargnani needs to gain weight and strength. His low-post game is pretty underdeveloped and he avoids contact."

Gallinari

"Positives: All-around skills. Point-forward mentality. Beautiful passer. Excellent basketball IQ. Smooth. Excellent slasher to the basket. Good athlete, though not an exceptional one. Good shooter, especially from mid-range.

Negatives: He lacks explosiveness. Although he's not slow-footed, he's not exactly quick either. May be a little too unselfish. Questions about his long-range shooting."

Edge: Even

Both are excellent shooters with three-point range, but both have trouble getting rebounds, especially for their size. Gallinari is better passer and Bargnani is a better ball handler

The Ceiling

	GP	MPG	FG%	FT %	3PTM	PPG	Reb	Ast	TO	Stl	Blk
Bargnani --> Nowitzki '02-03	80	39	46.3%	88.1%	1.9	25.1	9.9	3.0	1.9	1.4	1.0
Gallinari --> Kukoc '00-01	17	36	49.2%	68.1%	2.2	19.7	5.7	6.2	3.0	0.8	0.3

Edge: Bargnani

If Gallinari becomes Kukoc, you get a second-round fantasy swingman in the statistical mold of Andre Iguodala/Brandon Roy/Joe Johnson. If you get Nowitzki, you get a sure first rounder. In Yahoo!, Nowitzki’s average draft position is 5.2.

The question really becomes the likelihood of reaching these ceilings and whose more likely?

I think right now the short-term outlook for improvement favors Bargnani because Bosh is gone. Bosh leaving frees up 17 more field goal attempts and surely Bargnani will pick some of that up. Gallinari’s improvement is less clear. While he is so young, the Knicks have a lot of new pieces and how that meshes is always a question mark. Amare will no doubt command the ball more than David Lee did and no one is certain how Anthony Randolph and Raymond Felton will fit into the mix.

I do suspect that Gallinari will improve upon last season. He’s reportedly been hitting the gym like crazy in the offseason and with a more pass-friendly PG in Felton he should get more open looks. Also, Amare will command more double teams so that should help.

Final verdict: Bargnani.

While it pains me to say this as I have Gallinari as one of my keepers, I think Bargnani is the better choice at this point. But keep an eye on Bargnani’s improvement this season. If he doesn’t improve upon last year with the added responsibility of being “the guy,” then that could be a major sign he’s hit his ceiling.