UFC 119 FIght Card: Betting Odds and Predictions For Every Fight
UFC 119 is less than a 24 hours away, and although the card may not seem like one of UFC's most stacked, it's sure as hell going to be one of the most promising.
All the questions will be answered about who will beat who, who will get cut, who might be a contender... and a Wikipedia prediction.
So if you want to make some serious money, you'll be looking at some odds, along with a few numbers.
I'm here to give you those numbers as well as a few predictions of mine, so let's hop right into it!
Mark Hunt Vs. Sean McCorkle
1 of 11Odds for Mark Hunt: -165
Odds for Sean McCorkle: +135
Basics: McCorkle is an undefeated prospect in the UFC, and Hunt is the step up in competition for him, but he's not an easy feat.
Hunt will bring a 5-6 pro record in against the prospect McCorkle and his 9-0 unbeaten record, along with a solid kickboxing game, a five-fight losing streak, and some experience in the fight game that includes a long stint in K-1.
Certainly, McCorkle is the odds-on underdog at +135 while the favorite is Hunt at -165.
Dale's Call: Hunt by TKO in Rd. 1. No question that McCorkle is a prospect and will do big things in the UFC one day, but he's giving up some experience in this one, and it may cause his to make a fatal mistake on the feet, where a lethal shot knocks McCorkle down and then the prospect eats a barrage of strikes on his back.
TJ Grant Vs. Julio Paulino
2 of 11Odds for Grant: -165
Odds for Paulino: +135
Grant is known for having sick BJJ to go with a good Muay Thai game, while Paulino is a tough Jersey City wrestler whose only losses were by decision, including his UFC debut against Mike Pierce.
Grant is a favorite in this fight over Paulino because many feel that Grant's BJJ will be too much for Paulino to try and fend off in three rounds, though the wrestling of "The Dominican Demon" could just be overlooked.
This bout has the potential to be an excellent stylistic bout between two tough Welterweights.
Dale's Call: Grant's game on the ground could be some of the best of any welterweight that isn't in the top ten of the UFC Welterweight ranks, but Paulino's wrestling is also overlooked and is by no means easy to combat. That said, Grant is going to get taken down early but he will eventually be able to use that to his advantage and score something brutal to submit Paulino.
My guess: Grant gets a second-round Triangle Choke on Paulino and begins to get a little tough to overlook.
Steve Lopez Vs. Waylon Lowe
3 of 11Odds for Lowe and Lopez: -115
Both guys are at -115 on the moneyline considering that both men are coming off losses in their UFC debuts, though a win for one of these guys will put them back into relevancy.
Very little can be said about both guys other than both men are wrestlers, but Lopez is out of the Xtreme Couture camp and Lowe is out of Joe Hand's Boxing, so it'll be interesting to see if Lowe can pull off some boxing against Lopez.
Dale's Call: For certain, we can say that Lowe is a Div. II wrestler, but we don't know if Lopez has any collegiate credence to his own brand of wrestling, so it'll be interesting to see how he does. That notwithstanding, Lopez pulls out a Unanimous decision in what winds up being a great Lightweight fight for his first fight since losing to Jim Miller, although Lowe could erase the memory of the loss to Melvin Guillard if he can KO Lopez.
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Thiago Tavares Vs. Pat Audinwood
4 of 11Odds for Tavares: -300
Odds for Audinwood: +250
Tavares is going to be making his first UFC appearance in a long time when he faces the newcomer Audinwood, who is an outstanding wrestler but will have to face an expert in BJJ when he faces Tavares -- the favorite at -300.
Tavares is coming off of a draw against Nik Lentz while Audinwood will be coming off of a win at an M-1 event.
Dale's Call: I don't know much about Audinwood, but he may need some pretty solid wrestling to combat the skills of Tavares, and I don't know if he can show Tavares anything he hasn't seen... unless he uses his wrestling to submit him. Otherwise, Tavares will win by submission, most likely by way of a Triangle Choke.
Matt Mitrione Vs. Joey Beltran
5 of 11Odds for Meathead: -155
Odds for The Mexicutioner: +125
It's amazing what a win over Kimbo Slice will do to you.
It killed a promotion, it elevated a man's career, and it got people on board the Meathead Express.
Now, people are looking at this fight against Joey Beltran as a way for Matt Mitrione to prove that he can hang and bang with the big boys at 265.
Meathead's BJJ hasn't really been tested so we can't say it's good or bad, but we know his kickboxing will have to contend with Beltran's boxing and wrestling.
Surprisingly, Mitrione is the favorite to win along the moneyline at -155, while Beltran -- despite wins over Rolles Gravcie and Tim Hague, is the underdog at +125.
If you bank on Mitrione losing and Beltran ends up cooking Meathead on Saturday, you're going home with a cool hundred and twenty-five bucks in your hands.
If Mitrione wins and you bank on Beltran losing... hey, at least you keep your cash.
Dale's Call: Beltran has a lot of heart and some solid boxing skills from what I can see, and although Mitrione could be a Heavyweight "dark horse", I'm not yet sold on him becoming a top-10er just yet. So I give Beltran until the end of the second round to engrave his fists in Meathead's meaty, frozen skull.
Seriously though, Beltran by second-round KO in the middle of the second round.
CB Dollaway Vs. Joe Doerksen
6 of 11Odds for Dollaway: -350
Odds for Doerksen: +250
Dollaway, a veteran of The Ultimate Fighter, will be coming off of a win over Goran Reljic in Australia to face the returning Joe Doerksen, who has a win over TUF 8 veteran Tom Lawlor in the books.
The former WEC Middleweight title, on the other hand, will be coming off a win over Lawlor and a follow-up win over Shawn Merchand by TKO in a Canadian Fighting Championships fight.
Again, this this a case of sound Wrestling vs. sound Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, and Doerksen will look to make this submission win 34 on his record.
Dale's Call: I usually side with the wrestler in this instance, and I do like Dollaway in the fight, being that he's younger and could do a better job of controlling Doerksen for three rounds, but a man with almost 34 submission wins in his career is hard to go against. This said, Doerksen will get the victory by way of a sick Rear Naked Choke in the third round, but only because Dollaway is going to be able to fend off any attempts at a good choke for the first two rounds.
Melvin Guillard Vs. Jeremy Stephens
7 of 11
Odds for Stephens: +130
Odds for Guillard: - 160
You can read my full take here to find out what separates Guillard from Stephens, but I'd say both guys are going to be in each other's faces all throughout the fight.
Guillard's going to put Stephens in a dangerous spot more than once throughout the bout, but then again Jeremy Stephens will try to do the same to Guillard.
If you're thinking "this is going to be an exciting fight", I concur.
This is one of the fights that I think definitely could be the fight of the night.
Dale's Call: For those who've read my piece on the fight already, you know where I stand, but for those who don't, I'll give you the quick form of it:
I think Guillard is good, and I think he's skilled. What I don't think is that Guillard will be looking to polish off Jeremy Stephens -- he'll be looking to go wild and give off a crazy slugfest-type of feeling to the fight to the point of going too crazy. When that happens, Jeremy Stephens will KO Guillard, and I see the finish coming pretty late in the fight as a punch knocks Guillard out late in the third round.
Sean Sherk Vs. Evan Dunham
8 of 11Odds for Sherk:-240
Odds for Dunham: +190
Sean Sherk is back, and he wants one more crack at that UFC Lightweight Belt around Frankie Edgar's waist, but to get it, he has to get by a slew of hungry young contenders in the Lightweight division.
Evan Dunham is one of those guys.
Both men have strong wrestling, good hands and good BJJ, and it should be a great fight.
Considering that Dunham's toughest test to date will come against Sherk, he is the underdog at +190, which makes Sherk the favorite at -240, but don't let the numbers fool you.
Stranger things have happened in the UFC before, and they'll continue to happen until the day the UFC ceases to exist.
For a full take, you can go here.
Dale's Call: Dunham is a skilled fighter, I'll give him that, but I think he's at a disadvantage against the more experienced Sherk in this fight. I see few edges for him on the feet, and only see him winning by way of a Triangle Choke that catches Sherk by surprise. Therefore, I'll say Sherk wins this by way of a takedown and some ground-and-pound early in the third round. Dunham will be beaten, but he won't get put away early.
Serra Vs. Lytle II
9 of 11
Odds for Serra: +110
Odds for Lytle: -140
Chris Lytle has been a busy man as of late, with wins over guys like Matt Brown and Kevins Burns in the books, while former opponent Matt Serra has two losses to GSP and Matt Hughes, respectively, in the books with a UFC 109 win against Frank Trigg.
The last time the two BJJ black belts met in the cage, the contest went to a split decision which Serra won.
Now both men are going to go at it again, only this time a shot at the pound-for-pound king isn't guaranteed because, well, there's no guarantee that Georges St-Pierre will still be the champ by the time anyone calls one of these guys a #1 Contender to the UFC Welterweight Title.
Well, that AND the fact that the odds seem more in favor of Lytle than Serra, with Lytle going at -140 and Serra going at +110.
Dale's Call: If Serra wins, you could be 110 bucks richer, but personally I see this time being different for The Terror. I feel as though his striking and BJJ may be better than even Serra's, and with the height advantage of Lytle, the Jiu-Jitsu of Lytle will be more effective once the fight hits the ground. If his fight with Matt Brown was any indication, we can expect this shoe-in for "Fight Of The Night" to end by way of Chris Lytle sinking in an Arm Triangle on Matt Serra in Rd. 3.
Ryan Bader Vs. Rogerio Nogueira
10 of 11
Odds for "Darth" Bader: -175
Odds for "Little Nog": +125
With these two in the co-main event of an exciting card in Indianapolis, you never know what you're going to get.
Nogueira is noted for his Boxing and his BJJ, while Bader has some KO power and some outstanding wrestling which makes him a double threat for anybody.
Bader needs to keep his win streak going in order to one day find himself contending for Mauricio "Shogun" Rua's Light Heavyweight title, while Little Nog needs the win to erase he doubt brought up by the split decision win over Jason Brilz.
While Bader is a favorite to win at -175, the underdog Nogueira is picked by some odds-makers to get the upset win over one of the two top prospects in the Light Heavyweight Division.
Some would feel that maybe he's better in every aspect in MMA, though this will remain to be seen for sure.
Dale's Call: I know better than to say that a Black House fighter is "going to get killed", especially when banking on the fighter means winning an extra $125, but there's something about Bader that convinces me that he may have a shot to beat Nogueira. I just think he'll be too explosive on the takedowns and he'll give Nogueira hell on the feet as well. It won't be enough for a KO or a TKO, though, so I'll give Bader this by Unanimous Decision.
The Main Event: Frank Mir Vs. Mirko Filipovic
11 of 11Odds for Mir: -240
Odds for Cro Cop: +190
Does this fight really need any more hype?
Everyone knows what Frank Mir can do, and they know what Mirko Cro Cop can do.
They know Cro Cop wants it on the feet, but Mir doesn't care where Cro Cop wants it as long as he gets Cro Cop in the cage.
Unsurprisingly, all but the dude who
has been openly saying that Mir will be beating Cro Cop, and those who have seen Cro Cop winning haven't been as bold as that one guy.
For those who need a refresher, James Ryan still has the full story.
In any event, the odds-makers agree with the fans, and they too say that Mir will beat Cro Cop in Indianapolis, but could they all be wrong?
If they do, some people are going home $190 richer than they were today. Lucky F@$%ers.
Dale's Call: Do I think the Wikipedia prediction could come true? Absolutely. Needless to say though, I don't see it happening. As a matter of fact, when the Cemetery Left comes, I see Mir catching it, blasting Cro Cop with a right hand, and sinking in a textbook kneebar in round number two for the win in a fight that could make Mir into a legend.
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