Week 4 College Football Picks ATS: Will Arkansas Take Down Alabama?
An 11-9 record last week isn’t exactly making my pocketbook swell, but hell, it’s better than a losing record…right?
Week 3 has come and gone, and the first month of college football is almost past us. Before we know it the seasons will be changing and we will need to figure out just how these teams will perform in inclement weather.
But let’s not get ahead of ourselves.
Four games that pit ranked team against ranked team are slated for Week 4 and the biggest has to be No.1 Alabama in an in-conference battle against No.10 Arkansas.
This SEC tilt is just the tip on the iceberg when it comes to the list of games this weekend, so let’s not waste any more time and jump right into this week’s Picks Against the Spread.
Last Week's Record: 11-9
Overall Record: 34-24-2
No. 1 Alabama (-7) @ No. 10 Arkansas
1 of 20
With two Top 10 teams duking it out for conference and BCS supremacy, this game is undoubtedly the most interesting matchup of the week.
Behind Mark Ingram and Trent Richardson, Alabama’s 13th ranked rushing offense (259.33 yards/game) should control the tempo and eventually the scoreboard of this game.
While Arkansas’ defense is used to seeing a steady serving of the running game (ranking 24th in rushing attempts against per game at 40.33), the Crimson tide is touting a backfield package unlike anything the Razorbacks have seen this season.
However, don’t be fooled by the under-hyped passing game that Alabama is trotting out on the field.
Greg McElroy’s deceptiveness has helped him convert several huge plays involving his arm, so much to the point that he currently leads the FBS in yards per attempt (11.8).
The Razorbacks have a quarterback of their own that also has the ability to take control a game with the flick of his wrist. Ryan Mallett leads the nation in yards per game (360.3) and is neck-and-neck with McElroy for the lead in several other passing categories.
What it will come down to is how long Alabama can contain Mallett from making that big play.
In the long run, Alabama’s offense should be able to expose the various weaknesses in the Razorbacks defense. If Mallet can’t find a way to do the same to Alabama’s D, the Crimson Tide should be able sneak out of town with a pretty epic victory.
Pick: Alabama -7
No. 2 Ohio State (-44.5) Vs. E. Michigan
2 of 20
The Ohio State Buckeyes are putting on the freshman 15 with all of the cupcakes they have been eating recently.
Another tasty treat awaits them this weekend in their fourth consecutive home game to start the 2010 season and an absolute plummeting is not out of the question.
A 42.5 point spread is quite a bit to chew for any type of gambler, but Ohio State isn’t afraid to put the “hurt on” when opponents step foot into the Horseshoe.
Since this will be the first time Eastern Michigan has ever played in Columbus, the Buckeyes could be covering this spread by half time.
Pick: Ohio State -44.5
No. 3 Boise State (-17) Vs. No. 24 Oregon State
3 of 20
Boise State’s final test before entering conference play comes against a ranked team and could very well determine their National Championship aspirations. Coach Chris Petersen and the Broncos would not want it any other way.
However, Oregon State is also no stranger to a tough Non-Conference schedule. Boise State is the second Top 10 team that the Beavers have kicked off against this season and the outcome of the last game against TCU does not instill the greatest amounts of confidence when thinking about taking OSU on the road.
Both the Broncos and Beavers have only two games in the books, and the numbers make Boise State seems to be the more resilient team on both sides of the ball.
Kellen Moore and Boise State’s explosive offense ranks 15th in the FBS, scoring an average of 42 points per game. Their sixth ranked defense has also been overpowering, allowing a measly 224.5 yards per game.
The Beavers, on the other hand, are having problems getting their engine warm to start off the season, but this hardly new news for OSU fans.
Oregon State’s offense has been stagnant (ranking 108th in total offense) and their defense has looked vulnerable at times (ranking 105th in total defense). The Beavers have a ton of talent, but they have yet to explode like many had expected.
This tilt in production definitely favors Boise State and should provide the Broncos with have an excellent opportunity to impress the BCS computers with a lopsided victory over a ranked opponent.
Pick: Boise State -17
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No. 4 TCU (-18) @ SMU
4 of 20
The Battle for the Iron Skillet dates back to 1915 and the overall record between TCU and SMU in this series is fairly close (TCU leads 43-38-7). But, over the past 10 seasons, this heated rivalry has leaned heavily in TCU’s favor.
Since 1999, the Horned Frogs own a 9-1 record against the Mustangs, outscoring their in-state opponent 320-85 during that span. The only loss that TCU suffered to SMU the past decade came on the Mustangs home turf five years ago.
The last time the Horned Frogs marched onto Gerald J. Ford Stadium, however, they spanked the Mustangs 48-7.
While SMU is middle-of-the-road in total offense (60th) and total defense (65th), TCU ranks in the Top 15 in both of these categories. They have a plethora of talent on both sides of the ball and should completely manhandle SMU this weekend.
A three touchdown spread should not be too difficult for TCU and they might be able to push the envelope even further.
Pick: TCU -18
No. 5 Oregon (-11) @ Arizona State
5 of 20
Although the Oregon Ducks have won five straight (and more importantly have covered five consecutive spreads) in this series against Arizona State, they actually do not possess an overall winning record when they face the Sun Devils (14-16).
ASU fell a couple points shy of upsetting No.11 Wisconsin last weekend and, despite the loss, turned the heads of college football fans all across the nation.
Back-to-back weekends against Top 15 opponents doesn’t bode well for the Sun Devils and Oregon’s offensive will be much livelier than anything ASU has faced the past few games.
Oregon ranks No. 1 in both total offense (611.7 yards/game) and total defense (193.3 yards allowed/game) in the FBS and this battle against ASU is their first step towards repeating as Pac-10 Champion.
Although ASU has struggled in conference play the past few season, these Sun Devils should not be overlooked.
When all is said and done, though, Oregon should come out on top.
Expect the Ducks to come out firing. Their multi-headed offense has the ability to leave these Sun Devils in the dust and their speedy defense should create a wall that keeps ASU so far behind on the scoreboard that Oregon will have zero problems covering this minimal spread.
Pick: Oregon -11
No. 7 Texas (-16.5) Vs. UCLA
6 of 20
UCLA squares off against a Top 25 team for a third straight week and Texas should be the toughest of the lot.
Despite their Top 10 ranking, Texas hasn’t exactly been the bombarding offense that people have grown to love. The Longhorns rank 50th or lower in the three major offensive categories and they don’t have the easiest defense waiting for them this weekend.
While UCLA’s pass defense has been decent (ranking 26th with 177.7 yards allowed), their rush defense has struggled immensely after the first quarter of the season (ranking an abysmal 105th with 210.6 yards allowed).
The Bruins defense looked slightly improved against Houston last week, picking off two passes and allowing only 108 yards rushing. An upgraded Bruins defense could create a multitude of problems for Garrett Gilbert and the rather unpolished Texas offense.
However, Texas’ offense should prevail in this offensive pillow fight, but covering the spread might be a stretch. This has the potential to be a low scoring game with several great defensive plays.
Pick: UCLA +16.5
No. 8 Oklahoma (-15.5) @ Cincinnati
7 of 20
Cincinnati football has seen better days, but the worst is yet to come.
The Bearcats and Sooners have faced off only one other time and that was back in 2008 when the Bearcats were a BCS threat. Even then, Cincinnati took a royal beating, losing 52-26.
Oklahoma’s passing offense likes to scorch the skies and the Bearcats’ 91st ranked passing defense will undoubtedly be under fire for the majority of the day.
Cincinnati is still miles away from ever contending with the Sooners, and if Landry Jones can ignore the rowdy Bearcat crowd, this should be another blowout for Oklahoma.
Pick: Oklahoma -15.5
No.9 Florida (-13.5) Vs. Kentucky
8 of 20
Saying that Florida owns Kentucky is like saying the sky is blue.
The Wildcats have dropped the last 23 games against Florida, and in 15 of those games, the Gators dominated the contest by a 16-plus point margin.
Although Kentucky is 3-0 and has put up some decent numbers against lower tier teams, Florida’s swarming defense should make this a fairly one-sided game.
While Florida’s offense is still dealing with post-Tebow depression, the Gators are still getting the job done with their defense. They are perfecting the art of turning the ball over, forcing an average of four turnovers per game.
Although Kentucky’s offense has been extremely careful with the ball this season (still sporting a zero in the turnover column), the several different looks that Florida will throw at this offense should help reverse this trend.
Expect these Gators to follow suit in what has happened in this rivalry over the past 23 years.
Florida’s offense may not be perfect, but Jeffery Demps will run all over Kentucky’s defense and help the Gators towards a rout in their SEC home opener.
Pick: Florida -13.5
No. 12 South Carolina @ No. 17 Auburn (-3)
9 of 20
The Auburn Tigers own a four game winning streak against South Carolina, but when two undefeated ranked teams come to play, you can usually throw history right out the window.
Although both defenses have yet to be tested by a legit offense this season, the Gamecocks have certainly proven that they know how to get to the quarterback, ranking third in sacks with 11.
Auburn’s offense does have a slight edge over the Gamecocks, though; ranking 21st in total offensive yards (460 yards/game) led by the dual-threat quarterback Cameron Newton.
Since 2008, South Carolina is 0-4 against ranked SEC teams on the road and this test might be too much for Steve Spurrier’s squad. Stephan Garcia has proven in the past to be a shaky quarterback in hostile environments and a stumble against Auburn’s mediocre defense is in his near future.
A three point spread might be close, but Auburn should squeak away with a win.
Pick: Auburn -3
No. 13 Utah (-33) Vs. San Jose State
10 of 20
San Jose State’s whirlwind of Top 25 stops continues this weekend in Salt Lake City and this matchup should end with same result.
Utah has been a wrecking ball, demolishing practically every team that stands in their way. The Spartans’ 101st ranked defense should do little to keep Utah’s offense out of the end zone.
The Utes are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games and even though this spread is quite large they should have little problems covering.
Pick: Utah -33
No.14 Arizona (-7) Vs. California
11 of 20
California’s yearly collapse came slightly earlier than people expected. Last week against Nevada, Kevin Riley threw three interceptions and quickly reminded the Pac-10 why Cal has had consistent problems contending for the conference crown.
In recent years, the Bears have dominated Arizona, winning five of the last seven meetings. However, Arizona demonstrated last week against No. 9 Iowa that these are not the Wildcats that teams are used to beating on.
Nick Foles and the Arizona offense have completely lived up to their early season billing, placing 6th in passing yards (330.3) and 13th in points for (42.3).
Arizona’s defense is what has surprised most people, looking much faster upfront and more mature in the secondary. The Wildcats currently rank 7th in points against (11.7) and their stingy defense is only allowing 220.3 yards per game (3rd in FBS).
Arizona is flying high after that humongous win over Iowa, but now it is time to focus on seizing the Pac-10. If the Wildcats are a legit contender for the conference crown, winning this game by more than a touchdown should not be a problem.
Pick: Arizona -7
No. 15 LSU (-7.5) Vs. No. 22 West Virginia
12 of 20
This is the fourth and final game involving two undefeated, ranked teams this weekend and this one might be the hardest to pick.
After opening the season with a huge victory against North Carolina, LSU has played two fairly simple conference games and looked decent in those wins.
While their offense is seemingly struggling to get on track (especially their passing game), their defense is consistently keeping teams out of the end zone, only allowing 11.3 points per game this season.
West Virginia had an upset scare a few weeks ago against Marshall that they survived, and they tried to regain some of their swagger with last week’s 31-17 thumping on Maryland.
The Mountaineers posses the better offense in this tussle and the combination of Geno Smith and Noel Devin sounds like a lot for LSU’s defense to handle.
West Virginia’s defense is also slightly better than LSU’s at the moment and may be able to frustrate the Tigers anemic offense.
This game is going to be a lot closer than people might think and the Mountaineers actually have a chance to leave Baton Rouge with an unbelievable victory.
Pick: West Virginia +7.5
No. 16 Stanford (-4.5) @ Notre Dame
13 of 20
Since 1988, Notre Dame and Stanford have greeted each other on a yearly basis and the Irish have relished in the bully roll.
In the past 19 games, Notre Dame has posted a 13-6 record, outscoring the Cardinal 560-418. The tables turned last season when Andrew Luck and company snapped a seven game losing streak to the Irish in an unforgettable 45-38 victory on the Farm.
This year the game takes place in South Bend, where the Cardinal will be hoping to break another seven game skid to Notre Dame.
Stanford is rolling through opponents this season, kicking asses and taking names later. They have won every game this season by at least 35 points and their defense should be thanked as much as their offense.
Notre Dame is coming of a harsh OT loss where a trick play by Michigan State ended up being their demise.
The Irish offense should have problems this weekend against Stanford’s new look defense and they most likely will not be able to keep up with Andrew Luck’s immaculate arm.
Stanford will win this game by at least a touchdown, maybe more.
Pick: Stanford -4.5
No. 18 Iowa (-28) Vs. Ball State
14 of 20
Iowa is still licking their wounds from last week’s upset by Arizona and this shell-shocked Hawkeyes squad might enter this week’s game against Ball State a little too confident.
The Hawkeyes are, without question, the more talented team to take the field, but a groggy and cocky Iowa could be kept off the scoreboard early.
Ball State will definitely be overmatched in this game and Ricky Stanzi and the Hawkeyes should be able to rebound from last week slip.
Iowa covers, but it might be close.
Pick: Iowa -28
No. 19 Miami (-3) @ Pittsburgh
15 of 20
Miami and Pittsburgh used to do battle every year as Big East rivals, but since the Hurricanes leaped to the ACC in 2004, the two teams have yet to cross paths.
Since 1984, Pittsburgh has only won one game against Miami and they are currently riding a six game losing streak.
Pittsburgh stumbled the last time they faced a Top 25 team, failing to hold onto their lofty preseason rankings. While that game against Utah was fairly close, this game should lean heavily in favor of the Hurricanes.
Miami has had a week off since losing a heartbreaker in Columbus and Jacory Harris will be ready to move forward with a breakout performance. Harris will undoubtedly find a bevy of holes in Pittsburgh shoddy defense, helping the Hurricanes emerge as the winner by at least a touchdown.
Pick: Miami -3
No. 20 USC (-21.5) @ Washington State
16 of 20
The USC Trojans have failed to cover the spread 14 times over the past 20 games. Yet, for some reason, staying away from their line always seems to be a very hard decision.
Washington State’s wet-noodle version of football seems so overmatched by the potential talent that is on the Trojans’ roster, which makes it extremely difficult to even think about taking the Cougars to cover this line.
However, screw me once, shame on you, screw me four straight times to start off the season, shame on me.
Pick: Washington State +21.5
No. 21 Michigan (-26) Vs. Bowling Green
17 of 20
Denard Robinson should have a field day against Bowling Green’s 111th ranked defense, but a 26 point spread might be too much to ask from Michigan’s beleaguered defense.
Michigan and Bowling Green will put up a boatload of points this weekend, which means the Wolverines might have problems creating distance on the scoreboard.
In the only meeting between these two teams, Michigan got the better of the Falcons, running away with the contest 42-7.
While Michigan won’t lose this game, the Wolverines will have troubles blowing out a rather ambiguous opponent just like last weekend.
Pick: Bowling Green +26
No. 23 Penn State (-16.5) Vs. Temple
18 of 20
When Penn State and Temple tussle, it usually ends in only one way…the Nittany Lions scoring an outlandish amount of points and Temple failing to score a touchdown. Over the last four meetings, Penn State has scored 154 points while only allowing Temple to score nine.
Although Penn State failed to cover last year’s spread, this year’s lines seems to be abnormally low.
Temple is off to their first 3-0 start since 1979, but a 16-point spread against Penn State’s stout defense might be too tall of a task.
Penn State’s young offense may not be able to completely blow out the Owls, but two touchdowns and a field goal should not be a problem.
Pick: Penn State -16.5
Georgia @ Mississippi State (-1)
19 of 20
Georgia has stumbled so far down the rabbit hole that they have woken up as an underdog to the perennial SEC whipping boy, Mississippi State.
Things can’t possibly be this bad for Georgia.
Georgia has won nine straight against Mississippi State and, even without A.J. Green, this streak should not be in jeopardy.
Look for Georgia to rebound from their slow in-conference start, beginning with this game in Starkville.
Pick: Georgia +1
Virginia Tech (-4)@ Boston College
20 of 20
Oh, how the mighty have fallen.
Less than two years ago, Virginia Tech and Boston College scuffled for the ACC Championship. Today, they both are looking to regain some much-needed respect in their ever-changing conference.
Boston College has started off the year 2-0, but has yet to face a true offense or defense. This team is short on experience and will be overpowered by a Hokies team that is not as bad as their record.
Yes, VT lost to a Big South team and yes, they looked a little shaky against East Carolina. But, this team is built for ACC play and Boston College will be the first on a list of conference victims.
Pick: Virginia Tech -4
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
