College Football Predictions: Arkansas vs. Alabama and Possible Week 4 Upsets
Week 3 in the 2010 college football campaign featured unexpected outcomes in Nevada over Cal, Temple over UConn, Arizona over Iowa, and Vandy over Ole Miss. Things nearly got even more interesting with close misses in the cases of Michigan vs. UMass, Oklahoma vs. Air Force and Texas A&M vs. Florida International.
Week 4 features 58 games involving 107 FBS teams including nine FBS programs facing teams from the FCS. Threeteen FBS teams are idle in Week 4.
The fourth week in college football marks the beginning of many teams’ conference schedules while other programs are matched in intriguing non conference meetings. The door is slowly closing on the “sure thing” games and opening widely on the “crap, we got to play “them” portion of the season.
Regardless of how week four actually plays out one thing is sure, someone will get upset a giant will fall and a national title hopeful will watch its lofty dreams crash to the ground. It will get ugly and the college football world will rubberneck and watch with delight and awe (unless of course it’s our team that is lying bloody in the middle of the highway).
The following slideshow will attempt to identify six of these potential upsets and further rank them from the least confident pick (hence the No. 6 ranking) to the most probable (the No. 1 pick).
The selection of the upset is perilous and faulty at best but that does not mean it is a task that should be avoided. I’m not scared of the odds maker...Are you?
6. Kentucky over Florida
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The 2010 edition of Kentucky vs. Florida is the tale of two teams in two very different places.
Kentucky is 3-0 under new coach Joker Phillips with decisive wins over Louisville, Western Kentucky and Akron. The Wildcats travel to Gainesville to find out how good they really are.
Florida is also 3-0 and ranked No. 9 with less than impressive wins over Miami (OH), South Florida and Tennessee. The Gators are surely hoping that in reality they are better than they have looked thus far.
Florida leads the series 43-17 and are 26-7 at home. The last time Kentucky beat Florida was in 1982 when the Wildcats won 39-13 in Kentucky. The last time Kentucky beat Florida in Gainesville? Thirty-one years ago in 1979 by a mark of 31-3.
The Bottom Line
Florida is two touchdown favorites over the Wildcats. The game is being played in Gainesville.
Florida ranks 103rd overall in passing and 52nd in rushing yards per game. The Gators will have to run the ball successfully to beat the Wildcats.
Kentucky has allowed an average of only 148 yards rushing in its first two games.
Kentucky will have to completely shut down the Florida running attack and force QB John Brantley and company to throw the ball possibly building on their five turnovers thus far this season.
The Wildcats will also have to find away to score points on the 16th best scoring defense thus far this season. Kentucky has been successful both running and throwing the ball but stats vs. Louisville, Western Kentucky and Akron don’t necessarily equal success vs. a talent stacked team such as Florida.
Kentucky over Florida is about as sure as Florida losing against Miami (OH), South Florida or Tennessee which were all very definite possibilities when the actual games were being played.
Florida looks to be primed to lose a game to an opponent it shouldn’t, it may be just a matter of who and when.
5. Arkansas over Alabama
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At this point in the season it is hard to imagine the Crimson Tide losing to anyone. They’ve won 27 straight regular season games and there seems to be no end in sight to their victorious streak through college football.
Alabama is ranked No. 1 and fresh off a 62-13 dismantling of the Duke Blue Devils coming into its Saturday afternoon conference opener vs. Arkansas in Fayetteville.
The No. 10 Razorbacks are also 3-0 and come into their battle with the Crimson Tide off a dramatic win over Georgia “in between the hedges” in week three.
Saturday’s game marks the first meeting between top 10 teams in Fayetteville in 31 long years. Not only is it the biggest game in college football this weekend, it is the biggest game in Arkansas football in many, many years.
The Crimson Tide lead the overall series 13-7 are 5-4 in Arkansas and are 6-4 against the Razorbacks in the last decade.
The Razorbacks last victory vs. Alabama was in 2006 when they beat the Crimson Tide 24-23 at Razorback Stadium.
The Bottom Line
Alabama is a touchdown favorite over Arkansas and the game is being played in Fayettville.
If the Razorbacks want to knock off the Crimson Tide Ryan Mallet and the Arkansas passing game will have to find a way to score points against an Alabama defense that has allowed only 398 yards of passing in its first three games.
But, the Crimson Tide defense, as successful as they have been in the first three weeks (against San Jose State, Penn State and Duke) are still young and there will be opportunities for Mallet and company especially if they can avoid making any costly mistakes.
On the other side of the ball the Razorback defense will have to shut down the thus far balanced Crimson Tide running attack.
Notably, the Razorbacks had six turnovers combined in the first two games of the season. They managed zero in their win vs. Georgia in Athens and will have to repeat this performance to have a chance against the Crimson Tide.
In terms of points for and points against it’s the No. 2 Alabama defense vs. the No. 26 Arkansas offense and the No. 5 Razorback defense vs. the No. 9 Crimson Tide offense.
Overall, Alabama has faced collectively the more difficult set of foes and the Razorbacks have not beaten a number one team in Fayetteville since 1981 when they knocked off the Texas Longhorns.
Though Alabama seems to have the statistical edge in almost every category playing this game in what should be a crazed Razorback Stadium in Fayetteville has to be a real advantage for Arkansas.
Whether the fact that a win on Saturday for the Razorbacks means a well earned place in the national championship and Heisman discussions will be a positive motivator or a negative stress factor that causes players to try to press and lead to mistakes remains to be seen.
4. Oregon State over Boise State
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It would be completely remiss not to include the above game on a list of possible Week 4 upsets.
Though it seems almost sickeningly repetitive to again list Boise State’s accomplishments vs. the strengths of a worthy foe it is a necessary evil. Especially given that Oregon State is the Broncos' final BCS conference opponent of the 2010 regular season.
Boise State is 2-0 coming into their game with Oregon State including a sizzling 33-30 victory over Virginia Tech (who has since struggled) in the opener and a 51-6 stomping of Wyoming in Laramie.
Oregon State is 1-1 after the very close loss to No. 6 TCU in its opener and a close win in their subsequent game vs. Louisville (35-28).
Thus far we know that Boise State is good and that Oregon State is talented but this weekend’s game will tell us a lot more about both squads.
The Bottom Line
On paper this game looks like a mismatch and the 17-point advantage given Boise State by the odds makers seems completely plausible.
Though Boise State looked untouchable in its game vs. Wyoming, well, it was Wyoming they were playing. Looking back to week one it is key to remember that the Broncos just barely beat a Virginia Tech team that has gone on to struggle through an unthinkable loss to FCS James Madison and then a big win over a very young East Carolina team.
Using the Virginia Tech win as the reason the Broncos will beat the Beavers by more than two touchdowns is a weak argument at best.
Oregon State was bested by a TCU team that went on to completely demolish both Tennessee Tech and Baylor. The Beavers defense gave up 278 yards on the ground to TCU which is ranked 9th in the country in rushing yards.
If the Beavers can manage a win in Boise they must find a way to shut down a Boise State attack that looked unstoppable at Wyoming but looked vulnerable at times vs. Virginia Tech.
On the other side of the ball the Rodgers brothers and the rest of the Beaver offensive attack will have to consistently beat on a defense that again looked impenetrable vs. the Cowboys but showed 30 points worth of weakness vs. the Hokies.
Also of note, James Rodgers leads the nation in all purpose yards and Boise State had two turnovers in each of its first two games. Statistics don’t tell us everything but these two could prove telling this Saturday night when all eyes are on Bronco Stadium.
As for the home field advantage in Boise, Oregon State has painted its practice field blue in preparation for this Saturday’s game vs. the Broncos. This is one of those things that sounds crazy until it works.
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3. Wyoming over Air Force
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If you list the 120 FBS schools alphabetically the list begins with Air Force and ends with Wyoming. They are literally the alphabetical alpha and omega of college football.
Air Force is riding as high as its alphabetical ranking coming into its clash with conference foe Wyoming. The Falcons are 2-1 with wins over Northwestern State and BYU and a very close road loss to Oklahoma last Saturday in Norman.
Wyoming, on the other hand, beat Southern Utah in its opener and then dropped games vs. number five Texas and number three Boise State. Though the Cowboys are 1-2 you would have to say that it is among the most respectable 1-2 records in all of college football.
Air Force leads the all time series 25-20 but are 9-11 in Laramie. Wyoming is 3-7 in the last decade vs. Air Force and lost the 2009 contest 10-0. The last Cowboy victory over the Falcons was back in 2005 when they bested the Falcons 29-28 at the Air Force Academy.
The Bottom Line
This game is being played in Laramie and the Falcons are favored by two touchdowns.
Air Force is ranked number one overall in rushing yards per game with a mind boggling 399 yards per game, conversely the Falcons are ranked 116th overall in passing yards.
The Falcons will obviously have to continue their successful rushing ways to beat the Cowboys.
The Wyoming defense has on average allowed 211 rushing yards per game thus far this season. It is critical to again mention that this statistic was earned against two top five teams.
Wyoming has been more successful passing the ball than running it (but who knows how they will look vs. a team that is not in the top five) and the Air Force defense has given up an average of 200 yards per game this season in the air.
Both of these teams have played well against powerful foes, both at least once on the road.
Overall, it will come down to how much the Wyoming has learned about itself in one of most difficult three game stretches in college football and subsequently if they can transform their experience in the school of hard knocks into a victory against a team that isn’t in the Top 25.
It isn’t necessarily likely but it is definitely a possibility.
2. BYU over Nevada
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Nevada enters its contest vs. BYU off a historic 52-31 win over Cal. Earlier wins vs. Eastern Washington and Colorado State make the Wolf Pack 3-0 and eyeing bigger and better things in 2010.
BYU comes into the Nevada game attempting to stop a two game losing streak. After beating Washington 23-17 and declaring future independence BYU has dropped games at Air Force and at Florida State.
BYU is 4-1-2 in the overall series vs. Nevada and 1-0 at home. Before splitting a home and away series in 2001 and 2002 the five previous meetings were all played before World War II.
The Bottom Line
Nevada is a field goal favorite over BYU and the game is being played in Provo.
Strictly by the numbers the Wolf Pack looks to have a rather sizeable advantage over the Cougars.
Nevada has been impressive in all three of its victories but gave up a combined 61 points to an FCS and two FBS opponents that ranked in the bottom half of teams nationally in offense in 2009.
BYU finally has decided on a starting quarterback, Jake Heaps. Heaps gets the nod over Riley Nelson who is out for the season after a non throwing shoulder injury vs. Florida State. This should help the anemic passing game as one guy will get all the practice reps and have an opportunity to get into a rhythm at game time.
BYU has lost to quality opponents in Air Force and Florida State and neither were blow outs.
Finally, BYU is a staggering 25-3 at home in the past five years and Coach Bronco Mendenhall has never lost three games in a row during his tenure at BYU.
Nevada should have the edge in this game but don’t be surprised if BYU comes back to life and ends Nevada’s happy victory run.
1. West Virginia over LSU
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West Virginia started playing football in 1891 and the LSU Tigers first suited up two years later in 1893. That’s a combined 238 years of football which makes it even more incredible that these two storied programs have never met.
West Virginia comes into the contest ranked No. 22 with a perfect 3-0 record. Wins over Coastal Carolina, Marshall (in overtime) and Maryland fill the Mountaineers' 2010 gridiron resume thus far.
LSU is ranked 15th and is also 3-0 including victories over a depleted North Carolina, Vanderbilt and last Saturday vs. Mississippi State.
The Big East is 21-18 all time vs. the SEC and LSU is only 1-3 vs. current members of the Big East.
The Bottom Line
The game is being played in Baton Rouge and LSU is favored by a touchdown.
LSU’s passing game has yet to emerge, they rank 115th overall in passing yards thus far this season. LSU’s ability to run the ball, regardless of how far their passing game comes along in Week 4, will be critical to their ability to win this game.
West Virginia’s defense has allowed only 188 yards rushing total in its first three games of the year.
If the Mountaineers can stop the Tigers running attack and force Jordan Jefferson to take to the air they have a definite advantage in Baton Rouge. This advantage will be multiplied if they can build on the eight sacks they registered in last week’s game vs. Maryland.
Additionally, LSU’s victory last weekend over conference rival Mississippi State included five Bulldog turnovers. Regardless of who caused them how much did they have to do with LSU’s offensive success (which included five Tiger field goals as part of the 29 points scored)?
Despite of any statistical advantage, West Virginia has eight turnovers thus far in 2010 which, if repeated, will spell disaster on the road at night at LSU.
My guess is that if West Virginia can keep turnovers under two then they will be victorious in Baton Rouge.
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