MLB Playoffs?!! Did You Say Playoffs?!

Yes, its that time of year again.  October is right around the corner, and as any baseball fan knows, that means pennant races are coming down to the wire, and postseason ball will be here before we know it.  A few races have already been decided, but there are some playoff spots still up for grabs.  While some teams  (the Phillies and Rockies) are getting hot at exactly the right time, others (the Padres) have fell off and are crawling into the playoffs.  Here are my playoff predictions, division by division.

AL East

The New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays started a pivotal 4 game series last night at Yankee Stadium, with the Yanks taking the first game and extending their lead over the Rays to 1.5 games. The Yankees have Phil Hughes, A.J. Burnett, and C.C. Sabathia scheduled to pitch the rest of the series, with the Rays sending James Shields, Wade Davis, and David Price to the mound.  Hughes is 0-2 with a 6.59 ERA in his last three starts.  Davis is on a 7-game winning streak, and is 2-1 against the Yanks this season, while Burnett has a 4.50 ERA in September. Sabathia is the ML’s first 20 game winner.   The Rays will win the next 2 games, but lose the finale to split the series.  The Yankees then have three games at home vs. the Red Sox, three at Toronto, and finish the season with three games at Fenway.  They will go 7-2 in that stretch. Meanwhile, the Rays  have a 6 game homestand vs. the cellar-dwelling Mariners and the red-hot Orioles, then finish with a 4 game series at Kansas City.  The Orioles have a chance to spoil the Rays chance at winning the division.  The Rays will finish the season 7-3, a game behind the Yankees. Division winner: New York Yankees Wild Card: Tampa Bay Rays

AL Central

The Minnesota Twins have all but locked up the Central Division and are cruising into the playoffs. The Twins are 14-4 in September, and have won seven of their last nine games. Up 10.5 games on the White Sox, it is pretty much a sure thing that they will win the Central (barring a 2007 Mets-like collapse). How have the Twins been so successful, even without star first baseman Justin Morneau, who has been out since July 7 due to a concussion? Michael Cuddyer has done a tremendous job filling in (.274, 14 HR, 77 RBI), and the Twins have gotten superb offensive production from unlikely sources – Jim Thome (.276, 24 HR, 58 RBI), Delmon Young (.297, 18 HR, 104 RBI), and Danny Valencia (.335, 17 2B, 35 RBI in 73 games). The Twins are tied for first in batting average, 2nd in on-base percentage, 4th in slugging, and 4th in runs in the AL. Combine that with outstanding starting pitching (2nd in ERA, 2nd in shutouts, T-2nd in complete games, 2nd in innings pitched) and you’ve got a perfect formula for winning games in the postseason. Division Winner: Minnesota Twins

AL West

Much like the Twins, the Texas Rangers have been in control of the AL West for a long time and are looking ahead to October.  The Rangers, who are without offensive leader Josh Hamilton, are seeking the West title and are eight games ahead of the Oakland A’s.  Hamilton, who suffered a bruised rib cage Sept. 4, is hoping to be ready to play in the playoffs.  Without him, the Rangers have gotten terrific play from Michael Young (.286, 20 HR, 85 RBI), Vladimir Guerrero (.305, 27 HR, 107 RBI), and Nelson Cruz (.316, 21 HR, 75 RBI). Hamilton was batting .361 with 31 HR and 97 RBI before the injury.  The Rangers haven’t exactly gotten what they expected from Cliff Lee after acquiring him at the trade deadline (4-5, 4.10 ERA since joining the team), but have had solid pitching from C.J. Wilson (14-7, 3.21 ERA), Colby Lewis (11-12, 3.84 ERA), and Tommy Hunter (12-4, 3.92 ERA). They have a deep starting rotation, with four starters with double-digit wins. Division Winner: Texas Rangers

ALDS – Yankees over Rangers, Twins over Rays

The Yankees starting rotation will be too much for the Rangers, who have inexperience in the postseason. The Yankees will win in four games. The Twins are on a roll in September and will carry their success over into October, beating the Rays in five games.

The Twins are my pick to win the AL.

ALCS – Twins over Yankees

The Twins have the perfect combination of clutch hitting and excellent starting pitching.  Twins starters pitch deep into games and protect leads. Despite going 2-4 against the Yankees this year, the Twins will ride their late-season momentum and defeat the Yankees in seven games. AL Champions: Minnesota Twins

NL East

Once again, the Phillies are in control of the NL East in September, and for the fourth year in a row, look poised to win another division title.  But this year, unlike their previous postseason runs, they’ve had tremendous setbacks due to injuries.  Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Placido Polanco, Shane Victorino, Brad Lidge, and Ryan Madson all have spent significant time on the DL, yet the Phils are 90-61 and lead the NL East by four games with eleven to go. The Phils are red-hot, winners of 8 in a row and are 16-3 in September.  The Phils are the only team with a starting rotation with three pitchers with an ERA under 3.00: Roy Halladay (19-10, 2.49 ERA), Cole Hamels (12-10, 2.93 ERA), and Roy Oswalt (7-1, 1.94 ERA since joining the Phillies via trade).  Hamels is 5-0 with a 0.68 ERA in his last five starts, and Brad Lidge has 24 saves in 29 appearances, looking like the Brad Lidge of 2008. The Phils lead the NL in complete games, are tied for second in shutouts, and lead the NL in innings pitched. Though their power numbers are down, the Phils have gotten clutch hitting from Ryan Howard (.281, 30 HR, 104 RBI) and Jayson Werth (.292, 24 HR, 76 RBI) as well as from a cast of other characters that have stepped up in huge moments, like Carlos Ruiz (.299, 24 2B, 50 RBI, .443 slugging). They are 3rd in the NL in runs, hits, RBI, and triples. The Phillies have the best record in the National League and look poised for another NL Championship. Division Winner: Philadelphia Phillies

NL Central

After battling it out throughout the season, it seems that the Cincinnati Reds have separated themselves from the St. Louis Cardinals.  The Reds have had success this season mostly because of their high-powered offense. The Reds, paced by NL MVP candidate Joey Votto (.323, 35 HR, 106 RBI), lead the NL in runs scored, hits, home runs, RBI, slugging, and batting average. Scott Rolen has hit .292 with 20 HR, 81 RBI, with a .516 slugging percentage. Jay Bruce has hit 21 HR, and Johnny Gomes has 83 RBI this season. However strong the offense has been, the pitching has been mediocre at best.  The staff is led by Bronson Arroyo (16-10 3.98 ERA) and Johnny Cueto (12-5, 3.35 ERA). The rest of Cincinnati’s starters have been inconsistent and have fewer than ten victories. The Reds’ team ERA is 4.05, good for ninth in the NL. If the Reds have a weakness, its starting pitching. Division Winner: Cincinnati Reds

NL West

It doesn’t get any better than the pennant race in the NL West.  The Giants, Padres, and Rockies are all within 1.5 games, with 13 games to go. While the Padres looked to be the favorite entering September, they let their lead slip away and lost ten games in a row from August 26 to September 5, which let the Giants and Rockies back in it. Meanwhile the Rockies went on a typical late season surge, winning ten in a row from September 3 to September 12.  And the Giants went 11-4 from August 31 to September 16.  The Giants and Padres are number one and number two in ERA in the NL, respectively. Both rotations are deep and very strong. The Rockies have won by the grace of their outstanding offense, led by MVP candidate Carlos Gonzalez (.340, 32 HR, 107 RBI). Troy Tulowitzki (.325, 26 HR, 89 RBI) has also been hot as of late. The Rockies are 2nd in runs scored, hits, RBI, slugging, and batting average, and lead the NL in triples and on base percentage. The Rockies and Giants play a three game series in San Francisco from September 24-27, and the Padres host the Giants for the last three games of the regular season. The Padres will finish off the Giants at home in the last series of the season, winning the division, and the Rockies will surge past the Giants to knock them out of the wild card race.  The Braves and Rockies will tie for the wild card, with the Rockies winning the one-game playoff.  Division Winner: San Diego Padres Wild Card: Colorado Rockies

NLDS: Phillies over Rockies, Padres over Reds

The Phillies will play the Rockies in the division series once again, and will once again defeat them, in 4 games.  The rotation of Halladay, Hamels, and Oswalt will quiet the Rockies’ powerful offense.  The Padres will overcome their late season struggles, and will pitch their way to the NLCS. The Reds will not have enough firepower to overcome San Diego’s great pitching.

NLCS: Phillies over Padres.

In a tight championship series with great pitching matchups, the Phillies will edge the Padres in 6 games.  The Phils will get clutch hitting and pitching to beat the Padres to win their 3rd straight NL Championship. NL Champions: Philadelphia Phillies

World Series: Phillies over Twins

The National League finally has home-field advantage in the World Series this year, which will become important as temperatures drop significantly in the Twin Cities.  The Phillies and Twins are two similar teams, with stellar starting pitching and run-producing offenses. In the end, though, the Phillies’ home-field and playoff experience will give them the edge over Minnesota, winning the series in five games for their 2nd World Series title in 3 years.

World Series Champions: Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies will be celebrating in Philadelphia once again as World Champions