College Football Week 4 Picks and Predictions

Each Monday morning, Whatifsports.com's NCAA college football simulation engine will provide you with game predictions for every D-I FBS game that upcoming week.

The college football simulation engine generates detailed information for each game, including the home team's chances of winning (Home Win%) and the average points scored for both teams.

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The statistical inputs to the thousands of college football simulations are based on rigorous analysis of each team's roster, depth charts, and statistically-based player rankings. Roster modifications are made in cases of injury or suspension, and those players are removed from their teams' game simulations for that week.

Game of the Week: Arkansas (10) vs. Alabama (1)

With the first pick of the 2011 NFL Draft, the Cleveland Browns select...

Ryan Mallett, quarterback, University of Arkansas.

Woo Pig Sooie.

It's hard to avoid placing the cart before the horse in college football. Heck, America was ready to crown Denard Robinson the Heisman Trophy winner after Week 2 before he ran into that FCS juggernaut Massachusetts last Saturday.

Coincidentally, it was also the Wolverines who saw Mallett and his 6'7" frame walk out of the Big House following the arrival of Rich Rodriguez and his spread offense.

After sitting out the 2008 campaign, Mallett made Bobby Petrino's second year in Fayetteville a bit easier. The former backup to Chad Henne racked up stats hefty enough to rank him in the top 10 in most passing categories. He possessed a QB rating of 152.5 and tossed 30 touchdowns his redshirt sophomore season.

That was just an appetizer of what was to come this season. Although Tennessee Tech and Louisiana-Monroe aren't the definition of college football excellence, the Razorbacks caught the attention of many with their win over Georgia on the road last weekend. Mallett's NFL stock continued to soar as he threw for 380 yards, three touchdowns, and no interceptions against the Dawgs.

With the Razorbacks now ranked 10th in our weekly power rankings, Mallett will try to lead Arkansas to the biggest win in the Petrino era by beating top-ranked Alabama on Saturday.

The Tide didn't miss a beat with reigning Heisman Trophy winner Mark Ingram watching from the sidelines in Weeks 1 and 2. Backup bulldozer Trent Richardson picked up the slack and proved he has the talents to lead this team to another BCS win.

Well, Ingram returned this week against Duke. Let's just say the knee looks fine.

It took Ingram three plays to rush for over 100 yards against the Blue Devils. He later scored two touchdowns on rushes of one and 17 yards.

Not a bad first quarter.

Now the 3-0 Tide faces its second challenge in three weeks. Alabama controlled the tempo in their game against Penn State and dominated on both sides of the ball. They'll need more of the same to survive this SEC test and the uber pass-happy Razorbacks.

Using our college football simulation engine, we simulated Arkansas versus Alabama 101 times. In the end, the Crimson Tide won over 79 percent of the time by an average score of 37-30. Taking a closer look at the box score, the Tide does its damage on the ground (5.1 ypc), while Mallett focuses his efforts on the passing game (342 yards pass/game).

College Football Week 4
Matchup	Win%	Avg Score
Florida International Golden Panthers	5.0	11
@ Maryland Terrapins	95.0	38
Virginia Military Keydets	5.0	7
@ Virginia Cavaliers	95.0	44
North Carolina State Wolfpack	7.9	22
@ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets	92.1	41
Wake Forest Demon Deacons	9.9	21
@ Florida State Seminoles	90.1	41
Army Black Knights	20.8	16
@ Duke Blue Devils	79.2	29
Virginia Tech Hokies	77.2	31
@ Boston College Eagles	22.8	21
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers	5.0	11
@ South Florida Bulls	95.0	45
Colgate Raiders	5.0	7
@ Syracuse Orange	95.0	54
Buffalo Bulls	6.9	13
@ Connecticut Huskies	93.1	36
Miami (FL) Hurricanes	34.7	26
@ Pittsburgh Panthers	65.3	34
Oklahoma Sooners	73.3	35
@ Cincinnati Bearcats	26.7	29
North Carolina Tar Heels	80.2	24
@ Rutgers Scarlet Knights	19.8	15
Ball State Cardinals	5.0	7
@ Iowa Hawkeyes	95.0	44
Northern Colorado Bears	5.0	9
@ Michigan State Spartans	95.0	60
Eastern Michigan Eagles	5.0	5
@ Ohio State Buckeyes	95.0	58
Austin Peay Governors	5.0	6
@ Wisconsin Badgers	95.0	65
Bowling Green Falcons	7.9	16
@ Michigan Wolverines	92.1	38
Central Michigan Chippewas	19.8	17
@ Northwestern Wildcats	80.2	29
Toledo Rockets	23.8	19
@ Purdue Boilermakers	76.2	31
Temple Owls	28.7	20
@ Penn State Nittany Lions	71.3	29
Akron Zips	35.6	20
@ Indiana Hoosiers	64.4	28
Northern Illinois Huskies	70.3	26
@ Minnesota Golden Gophers	29.7	21
California Golden Bears	38.6	28
@ Arizona Wildcats	61.4	32
Oregon Ducks	92.1	33
@ Arizona State Sun Devils	7.9	13
USC Trojans	95.0	39
@ Washington State Cougars	5.0	16
Kentucky Wildcats	8.9	16
@ Florida Gators	91.1	38
UAB Blazers	9.9	19
@ Tennessee Volunteers	90.1	36
South Carolina Gamecocks	31.7	23
@ Auburn Tigers	68.3	33
West Virginia Mountaineers	49.5	24
@ LSU Tigers	50.5	25
Fresno State Bulldogs	55.4	33
@ Mississippi Rebels	44.6	32
Georgia Bulldogs	78.2	33
@ Mississippi State Bulldogs	21.8	23
Alabama Crimson Tide	79.2	37
@ Arkansas Razorbacks	20.8	30
Charleston Southern Buccaneers	5.0	6
@ Hawaii Warriors	95.0	55
Oregon State Beavers	24.8	32
@ Boise State Broncos	75.2	42
Southern Miss Golden Eagles	66.3	33
@ Louisiana Tech Bulldogs	33.7	30
Stanford Cardinal	62.4	38
@ Notre Dame Fighting Irish	37.6	34
New Mexico State Aggies	5.0	11
@ Kansas Jayhawks	95.0	35
South Dakota State Jackrabbits	5.0	4
@ Nebraska Cornhuskers	95.0	61
Northern Iowa Panthers	5.0	9
@ Iowa State Cyclones	95.0	44
Miami (OH) RedHawks	5.0	9
@ Missouri Tigers	95.0	43
UCLA Bruins	10.9	12
@ Texas Longhorns	89.1	31
UCF Knights	43.6	22
@ Kansas State Wildcats	56.4	27
Central Arkansas Bears	5.0	9
@ Tulsa Golden Hurricane	95.0	36
Tulane Green Wave	5.9	22
@ Houston Cougars	94.1	44
Memphis Tigers	21.8	21
@ UTEP Miners	78.2	34
Ohio Bobcats	61.4	25
@ Marshall Thundering Herd	38.6	21
Baylor Bears	87.1	33
@ Rice Owls	12.9	21
TCU Horned Frogs	95.0	41
@ Southern Methodist Mustangs	5.0	24
San Jose State Spartans	5.0	8
@ Utah Utes	95.0	44
New Mexico Lobos	34.7	19
@ UNLV Rebels	65.3	27
Utah State Aggies	55.4	26
@ San Diego State Aztecs	44.6	25
Nevada Wolf Pack	63.4	35
@ Brigham Young Cougars	36.6	31
Air Force Falcons	84.2	31
@ Wyoming Cowboys	15.8	19
Idaho Vandals	94.1	41
@ Colorado State Rams	5.9	23
Southeastern Louisiana Lions	5.0	9
@ Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks	95.0	46
Arkansas State Red Wolves	6.9	19
@ Troy Trojans	93.1	38
North Texas Mean Green	26.7	26
@ Florida Atlantic Owls	73.3	34
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders	86.1	29
@ Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns	13.9	15