Preview of The Men's Draw Of The Australian Open 2011

As the Australian Open looms, and fans eagerly await the opening of the tournament, especially of the men's tournament tomorrow, it would be worthwhile to examine, at the last moment, the draw. Who are the favourites (perhaps a redundant question), and the challengers?

Are Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal really lock-ins for the tournament? To suggest otherwise would seem daring at this time, considering the dominance of the pair, especially at the majors. At least, one is assured of their meeting only in the final, as they are, yet again, the top two seeds. The last time they topped the draw, of course, we were honoured with a final meeting. But how likely it this this time?

First quarter:

Nadal looms ominously at the head of the draw. Passage for him should be smooth for the first three rounds, although a meeting with the hard serving John Isner, or the persistent Marin Cilic, may be possible in the fourth round.

Should Rafa get past this stage, is it seems quite likely, he might face sturdy opposition, in Nalbandian, whose backhand has proved galling to the Spaniard in the past, or his fellow countryman David Ferrer, the 32rd seed, who recently won in Auckland. But Nalbandian himself faces a formidable matchup in the first round, against former world number one Lleyton Hewitt—reliving horror first round ghosts of two years ago, when he played Fernando Gonzalez in the opening match.

But there are some dangerous quantities - Michael Llodra, who reached the semifinals of the Paris Masters last year, for instance may be troubling for some seeds. But overall, the cautious bet would be placed on the top seed advancing to the semifinals.

Second quarter:

Things get a bit more lively in the bottom quarter, with likes of Robin Soderling, the fourth seed, and Andy Murray, last year's finalist and fifth seed, set for a quarterfinal showdown. The big serving Swede, however, faces a potentially troubling fourth round against possibly Ernest Gulbis, Latvia's latest addition to the ranks of challenging youngsters, or Jo-Wilfred Tsonga, who played the best tennis of his career in 2008 when he reached the final in Melbourne.

Andy Murray, too, has no easy road to the quarterfinals, as he potentially faces in the fourth round Jurgen Melzer, who had a terrific season last year (defeating Nadal in Shanghai), or Marcos Baghdatis, against whom the Scot has had trouble in the past. In truth, despite their higher seeding, this quarter of the draw could prove much more unpredictable—judging from the Australian Open's history of unexpected finalists there is no reason not to expect some sort of surprise here.

Third quarter:

The third quarter is similarly packed with star-studded characters—the likes of Tomas Berdych, Nikolay Davydenko, Fernando Verdasco, topped by the third seed Novak Djokovic have their haunts here. This section seems replete with tantalising potential match-ups—Tomas Berdych against Richard Gasquet, or Nikolay Davydenko against Fernando Verdasco, with the Russian coming off a runners-up appearance at Doha last week.

Novak Dkovokic may face fellow countryman Victor Troicki, who brought Serbia to victory in the David Cup last year, in the third round, and possibly the erratic Spaniard Nicholas Almagro in the fourth. There are also many potential hazards, in Philip Kohlschreiber—who nearly brought Nadal to five sets last year, and defeated Andy Roddick in 2008—or Ianko Tipsarevic, who very nearly caused a monumental upset three years ago when he pushed Roger Federer to 10-8 in the fifth.

But whoever should advance, one is almost certain of a highly dynamic marquee quarterfinal match. Yet overall, Novak Djokovic should be the favourite here.

Fourth quarter:

Here is home to the star player of recent months, and the hot favourite for the tournament, world number two Roger Federer. But this quarter resembles slightly Nadal's own, in providing challenges, but nothing too worrisome—Federer faces Lucas Lacko in the first round, possibly Gilles Simon in the second (who has never lost to Federer), and seems set for a fourth round encounter against Sam Querrey, whose gigantic serve and explosive forehand may poses some problems.

In the top half there are more legitimate challengers—his old rival Andy Roddick, who despite his dismal record against the Swiss (especially at this tournament) has never been short of determination and gut, fellow countryman Stanislas Wawrinka, or the wily French man Gael Monfils, who managed to stage an upset last year at the Paris Masters, defeating Federer after saving a handful of match points.

But should Federer be on his game, there seems no reason why he shouldn't advance to an eighth consecutive Australian Open semifinal.

I will not deign to pick a winner; the Australian Open's rocky history has oft proved such premature crystal ball-gazing wanton. But while this has been the case, there seems little opportunity, in such a strong cast of actors, for the unwanted party-pooper. The seeds, it may be conjectured, should advance. Whether, of course, we should be graced with the advance of the top two seeds to the final, however, remains yet in doubt.