Fantasy Football Stock Market: Texans RB Arian Foster, Others on Rise and Fall
Like the Wall Street stock market, the fantasy football stock market is all about making the right moves at the right time.
Buy a guy when his value is low and you look like you know what you’re doing. Sell him before his value drops again and you look like a genius.
With that concept in mind, I have assembled a list of skill position players to keep your eyes on for the coming weeks.
Don’t jump to conclusions just yet, but be aware that each one of these players either saw a significant jump or significant drop in his production in Week 1 compared to what he was projected to do.
RISING: Mike Vick, QB, Philadelphia Eagles
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When starting quarterback Kevin Kolb went down, Eagles head coach Andy Reid and the Eagles turned to former Pro Bowl quarterback Mike Vick to finish the game.
Though Vick was unable to lead his team to victory, his individual performance was off-the-charts great. Vick went 16-for-24 for 175 yards and threw one touchdown, but it was his 103 yards rushing that had fans and fantasy owners buzzing.
If Vick can contribute even 50 yards rushing per game, his passing stats do not need to be anything more than average for him to be a quality fantasy starter.
With a matchup this Sunday against the hapless Lions and Kevin Kolb looking increasingly less likely to be ready, it could be Mike Vick’s chance to shine.
RISING: Arian Foster, RB, Houston Texans
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One word can best describe Texans running back Arian Foster’s week one performance against the defending AFC Champion Indianapolis Colts. "Wow!"
Not known as much of a running team in 2009, the Texans turned to Foster early and often in their matchup with the Colts, leading way for him to set the all-time Texans single game rushing mark at 231 yards. Foster also added two touchdowns on the ground.
The Texans passed the ball just 17 times on the day—a far cry from the average 36 passes per game that they threw in 2009.
Though Houston is expected to remain a pass-first offense, the emergence of Arian Foster in the running game could lead to a more balanced attack, leading to Foster being a potential top 10 back this season and a great keeper value for the future.
RISING: Matt Forte, RB, Chicago Bears
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An early first-round pick in 2009 fantasy drafts, Matt Forte became one of the most disappointing fantasy players in recent memory, seemingly struggling every week to produce even enough points to be in most owners’ lineups.
But it didn’t take long in 2010 for Forte to get back to the scoring ways that made him such a hot commodity back in 2008.
With 50 yards rushing and an impressive 151 yards receiving, Forte is one of just two skill position players (Arian Foster) who cracked the 200-yard mark in Week 1. Forte’s seven receptions in the passing game are a great sign, as the Bears’ coaches seemed to forget about his pass-catching ability during his miserable 2009 season.
Forte is definitely a rising stock because it’s easy to get excited about such a great resurgence, but fantasy owners would be wise to remember that this performance did come against an awful Lions defense.
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RISING: Peyton Hillis, RB, Cleveland Browns
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In a baffling turn of events, Cleveland Browns coach Eric Mangini opted to give an equal number of carries to running backs Jerome Harrison and Peyton Hillis.
Once considered to be a short-yardage back only, Hillis’ stock is now on the rise, following his nine carry, 41-yard, one touchdown performance in Week 1 against the Tampa Bay.
Though it wasn’t a spectacular effort, Hillis appears to be the goal line back for the Browns and was also utilized in the passing game where he caught four passes for 24 yards.
It is assumed that Jerome Harrison will get more carries throughout the season, but for now Peyton Hillis may be worth a look for fantasy owners in deeper leagues.
RISING: Hakeem Nicks, WR, New York Giants
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It was only one week, but second-year New York Giants receiver Hakeem Nicks appears to be the new apple of Eli Manning’s eye.
Nicks put on a show, catching four passes for 75 yards, three of which went for touchdowns in the Giants’ 31-18 win over the Panthers.
As the Giants’ first round pick in 2009, it’s not surprising to see Nicks on this list but he did not even have a two-touchdown game all of last season, let alone a three-touchdown game.
The ascension to fantasy stardom is on its way and owners would be wise to take notice. When a quarterback looks a guy’s way in the red zone this many times in the first week of the season, it’s usually a good indication of things to come.
FALLING: Shonn Greene, RB, New York Jets
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When the Jets let Thomas Jones go this past offseason, all attention turned to second-year back Shonn Greene.
When the Jets acquired LaDainian Tomlinson later in the offseason, it became clear that the team would be going back to the very run-heavy offense they ran in 2010—one in which most fantasy experts believed would benefit both Greene and Tomlinson.
Monday night may have changed all of that—at least momentarily.
After losing control of the ball once on the sidelines and later losing a fumble, feature back Shonn Greene did not receive another carry for the remainder of a very close-fought game against the Ravens. Not only did Greene not receive another carry, but it led the way for LaDainian Tomlinson to step in and carry the ball 11 times for 62 yards. Tomlinson also added two receptions for 16 yards.
Greene was widely considered a fantasy stud going into the season, but with the Jets coaching staff apparently not trusting him in a close game after he lost a ball, it begs the question whether or not he will truly be the stud that many owners drafted him to be.
FALLING: C.J. Spiller, RB, Buffalo Bills
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I hate to say, “I told you so,” but can the hype train stop yet?
Bills prized rookie RB C.J. Spiller took the field for the first time this past weekend and proceeded to produce just 14 total yards on 11 touches.
It’s not even necessarily C.J. Spiller’s fault. The Bills are an awful team with a mediocre offensive line and no passing game to speak of—the defenses know what’s coming.
Some might point to the better yards-per-carry that the Bills’ other running backs, Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch, had in Week 1, but those numbers really can’t be judged this early in the season.
There is little doubt that Spiller is the most talented player in this backfield, but with none of the backs getting a significant amount of carries in a closely-fought game against the Dolphins, it may be time to beg the question if Spiller—or any Bills running back—is going to touch the ball enough this season to be worth a spot in your starting lineup.
FALLING: Mike Sims-Walker, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
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As I predicted in my “32 Predictions for 32 NFL Teams” article during the offseason, I believe that Jacksonville Jaguars WR Mike Sims-Walker caught lightning in a bottle in 2009, when he caught 63 passes for 869 yards and seven touchdowns.
In fact, I believe that it’s very possible that Mike Sims-Walker isn’t even the leading fantasy receiver for the Jaguars this season—and Week 1 might have started the trend.
Jaguars QB David Garrard looked like the quarterback that the coaching staff hopes he can be in Week 1, completing 16-of-21 passes for 170 yards, three touchdowns, and no interceptions.
In 2009, this would have almost certainly meant that Garrard’s top target, Mike Sims-Walker would have had a big day—but not this week.
Sims-Walker was targeted just twice during the game and although he was blanketed by one of the league’s top cornerbacks in Champ Bailey, it is discouraging to see Garrard not even complete one pass to him during the entire course of a game.
Instead Garrard seemed to turn to the team’s other starting receiver, Mike Thomas, whom he targeted seven times. Thomas made the best of it, catching six of those passes for an impressive 89 yards. Though he failed to get into the end zone, Mike Thomas may have made nestled himself in as David Garrard’s go-to-guy very early in the season.
If Sims-Walker ends up playing second-fiddle to Thomas, his fantasy value takes a giant hit, as he would targeted significantly less in an already run-dominated offense.
FALLING: Bernard Berrian, WR, Minnesota Vikings
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Disappointing, embarrassing, frustrating. These are just a few of the adjectives that one could use to describe Bernard Berrian’s production—and effort—in the Vikings’ Week 1 loss to the Saints.
Berrian, who was expected by many to be the primary beneficiary of Sidney Rice’s missed playing time, was targeted just three times in the game, catching only one of those passes for just three yards.
Many hoped that Berrian would take over the role as the Vikings’ deep threat with Rice out, but not only did he look sluggish and unmotivated, but Brett Favre didn’t seem to look his way anywhere near as often as fantasy owners would hope.
Despite a great season from Favre in 2009, the Vikings remain a heavily run-focused offense that uses the pass to keep defenses out of the box as much as possible. Quite frankly, if Berrian isn’t getting deep on opposing teams, his value is extremely limited.
Expect to see more of WR Greg Camarillo in the Vikings’ offense this week and going forward as Berrian’s lackadaisical performance in Week 1 had to be noticed by the Vikings’ coaching staff.
Until proven otherwise, Berrian is not worth a spot in your starting lineup.
FALLING: Malcom Floyd, WR, San Diego Chargers
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Perhaps the most disappointing performance in Week 1 happened with San Diego Chargers WR Malcom Floyd.
With Vincent Jackson still holding out, the Malcom Floyd fantasy bandwagon had officially begun. Floyd’s large frame, speed, and jump ball ability led many experts to believe that he would assume the role that Vincent Jackson had been assigned to in previous seasons.
A matchup against the Chiefs in Week 1—a team in which Floyd had a great track record against—appeared to be a great time to start Malcom Floyd.
Wrong.
Though Floyd was targeted a team-high 12 times in Week 1, he caught just three passes for a very pedestrian 48 yards and no touchdown.
Floyd’s disappointing day may have been a product of the rain and sloppy field in Kansas City, but this was his first chance to shine as the Chargers’ new top receiving option, and he failed to do so. Not only was Floyd largely unsuccessful, fellow Chargers WR Legedu Naanee had a significantly more productive day which included five receptions for 110 yards and a touchdown despite being targeted just eight times.
It’s too early to say that Floyd isn’t the top wide receiver in San Diego while Vincent Jackson is out, but Week 1 certainly went to Naanee.
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