Fantasy Football 101: What We Learned From Week 1
After an offseason of research, planning and drafts, the season has now begun, for better or worse. Here are three things to remember as you digest this week's results:
1. This week's waiver wire is by far the most valuable waiver wire of the season, as unheralded sleepers have revealed themselves. Some of these hidden gems will play key roles for fantasy teams. Many others will be one week wonders.
The best way to decipher the gems from fakes is to focus more on the player's role than the stat line. Stats can be misleading, but playing time is harder to fake.
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2. Do not overreact to one week's worth of stats. It is a fine line between a bad week and a bad season. Patience is a virtue. It is better to tweak a roster than make a panic trade after one week.
If you had a favorite sleeper who struggled this week, try to show patience. For example, people who drafted Sidney Rice last year needed to ride out a few weeks with Rice on their bench prior to bearing the fruits of a breakout season.
3. Keep an eye on the players other team's cut this week and be ready to pounce on panic trades. The initial waiver wire is the most important, but be ready to pick pounce when another team drops a high value player who had a bad week. Some of the best trades are the ones where you trade the one week wonder for an established starter off to a slow start.
Weekly breakdown:
New Orleans vs. Minnesota
Saints: Pierre Thomas received the lion's share of the workload, including the work at the goal line. Passing wise, the Saints spread the ball around as expected, although Lance Moore's three catches makes him one to watch.
Vikings: Despite a tight ball game, the Vikings opted to stick with a struggling passing game rather than give Peterson a larger role (just 19 carries and three catches). No Vikings wideout caught more than one pass, making keeping the mystery of who replaces Sidney Rice alive. Don't be surprised if Greg Camarillo's role increases this week, though.
Miami vs. Buffalo
Dolphins: The Dolphins remain a run first team but have made a commitment to getting Brandon Marshall involved (13 targets and eight catches although just 53 yards). The timeshare in the backfield remains, with Brown being the more explosive of the two.
Bills: Despite a tight ball game, Buffalo ran just 17 times, including a miserable seven carries for a six yard performance by CJ Spiller (Spiller was targeted six times in the passing game, albeit for just eight yards). Spiller has upside but the committee will make for an inconsistent performer. WR Steve Johnson could be one to watch.
Detroit vs. Chicago
Lions: Losing Matthew Stafford is a big blow (esp. to Calvin Johnson) and Jahvid Best was marginal from a yardage perspective (but more than made up for it with two TDs). Tony Scheffler caught six passes, making him a tight end to watch. The defense was also much better than expected.
Bears: The Mike Martz offense got off to a strong start and no performance was more impressive than Matt Forte's. His big day was heavily influenced by his 89 yard TD reception, but the Chester Taylor concerns were alleviated. Cutler put up a big day, but was unable to answer the wide receiver question as Knox and Aromashodu were both solid but unspectacular.
Oakland vs. Tennessee
Raiders: McFadden was impressive, with 150 total yards and a touchdown, otherwise, the offense was not noteworthy. A popular sleeper, the defense was not impressive but then again, their sleeper status was more dependent on playing the NFC West, plus Denver and Kansas City twice each, as it was the defense's actual talent.
Titans: Chris Johnson was his usual dynamic self and Vince Young was quietly effective (154 yards, two TD, zero INT). After a disappointing offseason, WR Kenny Britt disappointed Sunday, failing to tally a single reception.
Cincinnati vs. New England
Bengals: The offense opened up its attack more than expected, but most of that was due to falling behind early. The Ocho (12-159-1) was more effective than TO (7-53) but each was targeted 13 times. Bernard Scott was more effective than Cedric Benson, but like the passing game, it was influenced by the team playing catchup. That said, don't be surprised if Scott's role increases this season as the team looks to cut back on Benson's workload.
Patriots: The offense was clicking on all cylinders including excellent pass protection. Wes Welker looked his usual quick and healthy self. Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski did little to tell us which TE is more valuable. Fred Taylor is the best runner but the time share remains making all flex/bye week plays at best.
Carolina vs. New York Giants
Panthers: The offense was underwhelming, aside from Steve Smith, and was most disappointing by its underwhelming ground attack. Matt Moore's injury bears paying attention to, but this only concerns deeper leagues. The preseason's most dangerous pass rush failed to impress.
Giants: Hakeem Nicks and his three TDs backed up his breakout potential and Ahmad Bradshaw cemented himself as the team's most dangerous running back. The Giants defense was back to its attacking ways with four sacks and three INTs.
Atlanta vs. Pittsburgh
Falcons: Roddy White was a PPR monster with 13-111 (23 targets), but otherwise the offense fizzled more than sizzled. Turner's slow day was not a big surprise against the Steelers stellar run defense.
Steelers: Dennis Dixon was solid and did not hinder Hines Ward or Mike Wallace too much. Rashard Mendenhall struggled for 21 carries for 70 yards prior to his 50 yard TD scamper in OT.
Cleveland vs. Tampa Bay
Browns: Despite a close game, the Browns gave Jerome Harrison just nine carries (52 yards), which is not a good omen for his breakout season. Tight End Evan Moore surprised with three catches for 87 yards, while Mohammed Massaquoi backed up his No. 1 receiver status with two catches for 46 yards and a TD (plus a team leading six targets).
Buccaneers: The more i see Josh Freeman, the more I like his upside (not that you want him as your fantasy starter). Rookie wideout Mike Williams made a stellar TD and led the team in receptions (five) and targets (nine), although the yardage was minimal (30). Popular sleeper running back Kareem Huggins failed to get a carry.
Denver vs. Jacksonville
Broncos: The Broncos remain a pass-first attack, making Kyle Orton worthy of fantasy notice with Brandon Lloyd and Eddie Royal as the top receiver options. Jabar Gaffney disappointed with just 3-34 but his TD and seven targets keep him fantasy worthy. Brandon Lloyd has teased in the past but he has fantasy zombie potential and value in deep leagues after his 5-117 yard performance. Knowshon Moreno did not appear overly limited, despite missing the bulk of the preseason.
Jaguars: MJD answered injury concerns with a 98 yard effort, but it was teammate Mike Sims Walker who disappointed with a donut for the day. Mike Thomas was the team's top receiver option, catching six passes for 89 yards. His red zone potential is limited but he has value in PPR leagues. The defense had three sacks, which is noteworthy if only because the Jags had just 14 all of last season.
Indianapolis vs. Houston
Colts: Peyton Manning was his usual excellent self, with 433 yards and three TDs, but the defense was not up to the task, allowing 34 Texan points. If there was a surprise, it was Austin Collie's 10 catch 131 yard performance, although he was one of four Colts with 75 or more yards receiving. Lastly, Joseph Addai received all 10 of the team's rushing attempts.
Texans: Arian Foster was even better than his preseason hype, as he rambled for 231 yards and three TDs (makes you wonder why they drafted Ben Tate in Round 2). As a result, the Texan passing attack was limited to just 107 yards in the air, making it a rough start for Schaub and Andre Johnson owners. Jacoby Jones six targets is noteworthy for the popular sleeper pick.
Arizona vs. St. Louis
Cardinals: Derek Anderson was not overly accurate, but put up 297 yards in his Cardinals debut. The key recipient was Steve Breaston, with seven catches for 132 yards. If not for a TD, Larry Fitzgerald had just 3-43 despite 15 targets. As expected, the Cardinals defense had a solid defensive day against the underwhelming Rams offense.
Rams: Sam Bradford was impressive in his debut, firing 55 passed for 253 yards. Mark Clayton is sure to be a top waiver wire pick up after a 10 catch 119 yard effort (16 targets) despite being on the team less than a week. Laurant Robinson was underwhelming, with 3-18 and a TD, but did manage nine targets. As usual, Stephen Jackson was solid and touchdown-less in the losing cause.
Green Bay vs. Philadelphia
Packers: Greg Jennings lived up to bounceback expectations. The story of the day was the injury to Ryan Grant, which has elevated lightly regarding backup Brandon Jackson to waiver wire pickup if the injury lingers. Overall, despite the 27 points, the Packer offense was not as explosive as expected.
Eagles: Kevin Kolb struggled before leaving with a concussion, opening the door for Michael Vick to engineer a comeback behind a 103 yard rushing, 175 yard passing effort, making Vick a popular pickup. Despite the strong game, the Eagles receivers mostly disappointed (aside from Maclin's TD catch).
San Francisco vs. Seattle
49ers: An underwhelming effort for the 49er offense. Alex Smith struggled. Frank Gore struggled. Michael Crabtree struggled. The only bright spot was Vernon Davis and his 8-73 effort.
Seahawks: Matt Hasselbeck threw for two TDs and ran for one, making him one of the week's pleasant surprises. Mike Williams solidified his hold on the No. 1 receiver job with 4-64 while leading the team with six targets. In the backfield, Justin Forsett was the most impressive, but split carries evenly with Julius Jones and Leon Washington, making all of them difficult fantasy plays. Rookie Golden Tate was a surprise inactive.
Dallas vs. Washington
Cowboys: Miles Austin (10-146-1) and Dez Bryant (8-56) did not disappoint, but otherwise the Cowboys offense struggled behind a porous offensive line. Marion Barber, Felix Jones, and Tashard Choice did little to break the team's running back by committee, with each getting at least five carries and no more than eight.
Redskins: Clinton Portis proved that he is the team's bellcow back, with 18 of the team's 23 carries and Chris Cooley and Santana Moss accounted for 12 of the team's 15 receptions. Donovan McNabb did enough to win, but did little to help fantasy owners.
Baltimore vs. New York Jets
Ravens: Boldin is the team's clear No. 1 reciever with Houshmandzadeh and Mason cancelling each other out. Todd Heap showed he still had it with 72 yards and leading the team in targets with 11. Ray Rice's struggles vs. the Jets defense were neither surprising or overly concerning. If anything, his 21 carries shows he may have an even larger role this season.
Jets: The Jets offense and RB Shonn Greene (just five carries) in particular was disappointing. Mark Sanchez played extremely conservative, which is a cause for concern for those counting on Sanchez as a top backup or in a two QB league. No receiver had more than 18 yards or five targets.
Kansas City vs. San Diego
Chiefs: Special teams was the story in KC, as the return game provided the Chiefs with the bulk of their offense. In the AFC West and also playing the NFC West, the defense could have value in deeper leagues. Jamaal Charles was explosive but one has to be concerned by the number of touches Thomas Jones had. Passing game was minimal, thanks in part to the monsoon, but bears watching. Rookie TE flew under the radar on draft day but looks to be a contributor in a passing game needing targets.
Chargers: Philip Rivers was visibly frustrated with the offense this week. Naanee had the big TD and showed well, but Malcom Floyd did not have the look of a number one wideout. Rookie RB Ryan Mathews was solid in his debut and showed that he will be the team's bellcow back.
Chris Maier is senior editor for NFLDraft101.com. He can be reached at cmaier@nfldraft101.com. Follow me on Twitter: nfldraft101

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