FIBA World Championships 2010: 10 Things We Learned About Kevin Durant
Even though they were widely considered the favorites in the 2010 FIBA World Basketball Championships, Team USA was still labeled asย the "B team.
There was no Kobe Bryant. There was no LeBron James. There was no Dwyane Wade.
No Deron Williams. No Chris Paul. No Dwight Howard.
Instead, there were a bunch of young, raw players who had no experience playing on the international level. The roster was thought to have too many point guards andย not enough size inside.
In the end, none of that mattered. Not because the U.S. hadย considerably more talent than any of their opponents, but because of the breakthrough performance of the NBA's most exciting superstar: Mr.ย Kevin Durant.
In the final three games of World Championships, Durant went forย 33, 38 and 28 points against Russia, Lithuania and Turkey, respectively. He set theย USA record for most pointsย scored inย FIBA play.
He set a tournament record with seven three-pointers in one of the most raucous environments he and his team had probably ever faced,ย with eachย one seeming to deflateย more and more of the energy and life the Turks had left.
And he now has to be considered one of the NBA's premier alpha dogs, a likable, humble, almost sheepish superstar who fans across the country (and the world) are quickly adopting as the new face of the league.
How impressive was Durant's play in Turkey? Here are 10 different ways his performance will change our view of his game.
The "Kevin Durant Is the Best Player in the NBA" Argument Is Gaining Steam
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The title of "NBA's best player" has frequently changed hands throughout the last two years.
Everyone almost begrudgingly admitted that Kobe Bryant was probably the league's premier player, but his lack of success in the postseason from 2006-2008 left the door open for LeBron James.
James led the Cavs to the NBA Finals in 2007 with arguably the worst supporting cast for any finalist in NBA history: Eric Snow, Damon Jones, Donyell Marshall, Larry Hughes and Sasha Pavlovic all played substantial minutes for that team.
In 2009, Cleveland finished with 66 wins and LeBron won his first MVP award. Despite a loss to Orlando in the Eastern Conference Finals, James' numbers were staggering: He averaged 38.5 points, 8.3 rebounds and 8.0 assists per game, and the Cavs' loss was mainly seen as role players simply not stepping up.
When Kobe and the Lakers won the championship that year, he seemingly reclaimed the throne. But James' second consecutive MVP award and mind-boggling numbers had many convinced that he was the NBA's best all-around player.
Still, the argument basically revolved around those two. Now, Kevin Durant's name has to be thrown into the mix.
Despite all of Bryant's success throughout his career, he's 32ย and has logged 1,219 games; his best days are definitely behind him.
And even though LeBron has better numbers across the board and has more overall talent surrounding him, he and Durant have the exact same number of wins in the NBA Finals. We tend to value winning above all else, so nothing James has accomplished in his seven seasons stands out above what Durant has done in his three years.
Durant's points, field goal percentage free throw percentage, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks have all increased in each of his three seasons. Oklahoma City's win totals have also gone up all three years and they are widely viewed as one of the Western Conference's elite teams.
Nothing suggests that Durant or the Thunder will slow down any time soon. And if they don't, then you have to put him on the same level as guys like Kobe and LeBron.
Durant Is the Player You'd Most Want to Build a Team Around
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You can argue about who the best NBA player is until you're blue in the face, but if you were an NBA GM and could re-build a team based around player in the league, you'd have to pick Durant first.
The main reason? He's only 21-years-old.
The only other player you realistically argue would be LeBron James. But here's the case for Durant over James...
James is 25 and Durant is 21. Take a look at their stats from their first three seasons:
James
PPG: 20.9, 27.2, 31.4
RPG: 5.5, 7.4, 7.0
APG: 5.9, 7.2, 6.6
FG%: 41.7, 47.2, 48.0
FT%: 75.4, 75.0, 73.8
3PT%: 29.0, 35.1, 33.5
Durant
PPG: 20.3, 25.3, 30.1
RPG: 4.4, 6.5, 7.6
APG: 2.4, 2.8, 2.8
FG%: 43.0, 47.6, 47.6
FT%: 87.3, 86.3, 90.0
3PT%: 28.8, 42.2, 36.5
Pretty even, right? James has the edge in assists while Durant is a better three-point and free throw shooter.
But James' stats have (somewhat) peaked even after those years. He did recentlyย have better years in terms of assist and rebounding numbers, but the only category where he's steadily improved is field goal percentage.
On the other hand, it's not unfathomable to see Durant's numbers continue to rise. After watching him effortlessly torch opponents in FIBA, it is so far-fetched to see him averaging 33-34 points next year?
What about 35-36 in '11?
His rebounding and assist numbers will probably remain relatively the same, but his three-point percentage will like improve over time. So based on his development and how rapidly his game is improving,ย his projected stats by the time he reaches 25 (LeBron's current age) wouldย probably lookย something like this: 33.4 points, 8.1 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 50.2 FG percentage, 90.5 FT percentage, 40.1 3PT percentage.
With better numbers than LeBron in a majority of those categories (and the fact that James has yet to win a ring), you'd have to start with Durant if you were in rebuilding mode.
Durant Is the Best Scorer in the NBA
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When asked the question "Who is the best pure scorer in the NBA?" (or to whom does scoring come most naturally), two names immediately come to mind, but it's not the two that you might think.
It's Carmelo Anthony and Kevin Durant.
Don't get me wrong, Kobe was once on this list. But as mentioned before, he's 32; he can keep up with these guys in spurts, but he has to work harder to get his shots.
LeBron James is a physical freak of nature and no one can stop him from getting anywhere he wants on the floor. But he settles for too many jump shots, doesn't have a dominant low-post game and really doesn't have a go-to, one-on-one move.
But Anthony and Durant are effortless in their attacks. Anthony can operate from the block better than almost any small forward in today's game. He's consistent in hisย turnaround jumper, he can take defenders off the dribble and his face-up, step-back game is improving year-by-year.
Durant is similar in his attack. While Anthony is a more physical presence on the block, Durant makes up for that because he runs the baseline so well, utilizes screens properly and is a bit quicker with his off-the-dribble moves.
And he gets the overall edge because his outside jumper, specifically the three-point shot, serves as the great equalizer for any defense that wants to try to take away any other aspects of his game.
To me, these two were the elite pure scorers in the NBA last year and it was sure to remain that way for the next few years. But the ease in which Durant systematically took apart some tough international defenses answered the question: When it comes to scoring, who is king?
His Game and Numbers Have No Ceiling
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Continuing from the last slide, it's a relatively safe assumption that Durant's individual statistics will only improve as he gets older and more accustomed to the NBA game (not to say he doesn't already have it figured out).
But how good could his numbers actually get?
In terms of ability to score, an appropriate comparison is Kobe Bryant, circa 2005-2007. During those years, he averaged 27.6, 35.4 and 31.6 points per game.
But Kobe also peaked during that four-year stretch with shooting percentages of 46.3 (FG), 86.8 (FT) and 34.7 (3PT). Not to discredit those percentages, but Durant is on pace to blow all three of those out of the water. If Durant shot 49 percent from the field, 90 percent from the line and 38 percent from the three-point line (which isn't that much better than Bryant's peak), he'd average about 30 points per game. And that's only if he averaged 20 shots and eight or nine free throws.
Up that to 22-23 shots per game and 10 free throws, and you're looking at 34-35 points per game. It's not unreasonable; he had a game last year where he scored 45 points on 21 shots and 11 free throws.
Before Bryant, you'd probably have to go back to the early 2000s and look at Allen Iverson's numbers. Iverson was a relentless attacker and one of the best scorers of the decade, peaking in 2000-2002 at 28.4, 31.1 and 31.4 points per game.
But his field goal percentage couldn't hold a candle to Durant's, nor could his outside jumper. And Durant won't take the physical abuse that Iverson did, meaning it's more likely Durant can sustain his high level of play over a longer period of time.
The most appropriate statisticalย comparison might be the '89-'90 version of Michael Jordan, who averaged 33.6 points, 6.9 rebounds and 6.3 assists on 52.6-84.8-37.6 (FG-FT-3PT percentages). Except for the assists, those are pretty similar numbers to what Durant's projected stats will be...but only for next year. Who's to say that when he hits 23-24, he won'tย find a way to exceedย those numbers?
He'll Join the 50-40-90 Club in the Next Three Years
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The 50-40-90 club is hollowed ground in NBA history. If you don't know, it refers to players who shoot 50 percent from the field, 40 percent from the three-point line and 90 percent from the free throw line in the same season.
Only five players have reached the plateau: Steve Nash ('06, '07, '08, '09, '10), Dirk Nowitzki ('07), Reggie Miller ('94), Mark Price ('89) and Larry Bird ('86, '87, '88).
Every guy on this list is a sharpshooter, aside from Nowitzki (who is no slouch from the perimeter, but it isn't the strength of his game). Still, it's pretty nice company to be in.
Durant is unlike most players on this list, but the most comparable guy would have to be Larry Bird. From his rookie year until he peaked in '88, Bird's field goal and free throw percentage either improved or remained relatively the same on a year-by-year basis.
So if the same thing happens to Durant, he'll be shooting above 49 percent from the field and remain at 90 percent or better from the free throw line this season, and in two to three years he'd likely be around 50-51 percent from the field and 90-91 percent from the line. That would just leave three-point percentage...and he already easily cracked 40 percent his sophomore season when he went 42.2 percent from outside the line.
For the best scorer of this generation, breaking into the 50-40-90 club shouldn't be a stretch.
Realistic Chance of Becoming NBA's All-Time Leading Scorer
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Last week, Brandon Ribak of NBAPrimetime.com wrote that Durant has a reasonable chance to one day take the all time scoring title away from Kareem Abdul-Jabbar.
The formula he followed was pretty simple: If Durant averages 30 points per game for the six next seasons, that would put him at 14,760 career points.
If he put up 25 points per game for the following six seasons (age 27-33), he'd be at 33,060 points for his career, a littleย more than 5,000 short of Jabbar.
If he played four more seasons (he'd be 38) averaging 17 points per game in that frame, that would put him around 38,700 points and make him the all-time leader.
Granted, there are outside variables that will come into play. We're factoring that he plays 82 games for the next 16 seasons without being injured at all. And say OKC averages 12-15 playoff games for 12 of those years. That would put him around 1,700 career games, a tall task for any player.
Plus, guys typically tend toย go on the decline afterย 1,200-1,300 career games. So averaging 17 points while on the tail-end of your career would be pretty impressive. Even Kareem only averaged 17.5, 14.6 and 10.1 points the final three years of his career.
Still, saying he averages 30 points per game during his absolute peak is a relatively safe assumption. Maybe he averages 32-33 points over that time. If so, he'd only have to average 14-15 points his final few years.
Odds are, it probably won't happen. But he by far has the most realistic chance of any player in today's game...and maybe any player in the foreseeable future.
He's the Favorite for the 2010-11 MVP
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In late July, Vegas had already updated odds for the 2010-11 NBA MVP race. In somewhat of a surprise, Kobe Bryant was listed as the favorite at +200 to win the award.
Durant was second at +300, LeBron was +400, Dwight Howard was +600 and Dwyane Wade was +800. The lines have shifted around since but Bryant, Durant and James remain the three favorites.
Bryant should be discounted if only ever-so-slightly because of his ageย (hate to keep harping on this point, but it's true). That's not to suggest that he's not capable of putting up dominant numbers (he probably is).
But the Lakers will be playing in the postseason. Anything that happens in the regular season does not matter at all. They should look to take a page out of the Celtics book: If any ofย Bryant, Pau Gasol, Andrew Bynum or Derek Fisher suffer an injury, they need to sit out a little longer than normal.
Bryant is a gamer and won't want to sit. He wants to play every minute of every game. But it's not in his team's best interest to do so, particularly this year when they'll have young, energetic challengers in Oklahoma City and Miami. The Lakers will need him for the playoffs, so it'd be wise to cut back on Kobe's minutes and keep him ready for April through June.
James is a bit more interesting. The Heat will be beating the pants off of the bottom-feeders all seasonโbasically, only Chicago, Boston, Orlando, L.A. (Lakers), Oklahoma City, San Antonio, Utah, Dallas, and Portland will consistently keep up with them in the regular season. And if you're feeling generous, throw in Atlanta, Milwaukee, Phoenix, and Houston to maybe give them a game. So 60 or more wins shouldn't be too far-fetched.
He's surrounded with by-far more talent than he ever has at any point in his career. Pat Riley has had talks of him playing point guard, meaning he'll get more chances for assists. Without a true big man, he'll be free to roam the paint and collect a good amount of rebounds as well.
While his scoring average might drop, he could realistically be looking at a triple-double average.
But to win MVP, he'll have to average those numbers. Don't forget to take into account how likable Durant really isโfans love him, coaches love him, the media love him.
And it's the media that vote for the MVP. If Durant puts up a 32-8-3 season on 50-38-88 percentages and the Thunder win 55-60 games, only a triple-double average from James will keep the trophy out of Durant's hands.
And since no one has averaged that since the '60s, the odds are in Durant's favor to take home the league's most prestigious individual award.
The Most Likable and Marketable Star in the League
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Words can't quite describe the charm that Durant has, both on and off the court.
He's quiet. He talks some on the court, but it's never meant to intimidate or demean. Off the court, he talks to fans, poses for pictures and handles himself gracefully.
He's humble. After a big individual game, you can be sure he'll give credit to his teammates, as willย 99 percent of the superstars; it's the PC thing to do. But for some reason, you get the feeling that Durant really means it (and I'm pretty sure he'd never say something like, "I had to do what's best for Kevin and Kevin's family"...I'm looking at you, LeBron).
He has this boyish, sheepish charm. He lets his game do the talking (I'm willing to bet a good percentage of people couldn't pick his voice out of a lineup). And he possesses this undefinable quality, something that mesmerizes you when he takes the court; you never want to take your eyes off of him during a game.
It's essential for the NBA to have quality, likable superstars that it can put on center stage. That title used to belong to LeBron but he irritated many people with "The Decision" and his antics afterward (and not just people in Cleveland, either).
It kind of shifted to Kobe, but only because of the "LeBron's a jerk, we need a winner to root for" crowd. Don't forget, Bryant had his own problems with teammates, coaches and the law in the past.
You would never see Durant throw his teammates or coach under the bus, nor partake in anything so self-indulging as James did this offseason.
And for the NBA, it's perfect. Because now we have three stars: the good guy (Durant), the bad guy (James) and the wily old veteran (Bryant).
Three different ways to market games, jerseys, tickets, merchandise...the works.
OKC Will Only Get Better Because of Durant and Westbrook
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Not that this is really breaking news or anything. Most people considered OKC to be near the top of the Western Conference after their breakout party last season.
But Durant showed that he could be the clutch player that many people feared he couldn't develop into after last year's loss to the Lakers where he struggled mightily from the field and missed a potential game winner in Game 2.
He can be the guy that hits big shots to stop the momentum or stretch the lead. You could see it on the faces of the Turks once Durant kept nailing shots in the second half; they were simply demoralized.
And don't forget about the impact of having Russell Westbrook on the team as well. Against Russia, Lithuania and Turkey, he was the X-factor off the bench. He changed the game with his relentless on-the-ball pressure, his activity on offense and his athleticism in the open court.
One of the reasons people fell in love with the Thunder last year was their chemistry. They were a bunch of kids who loved playing ball and hanging out after the games. It just felt like the kind of team that would have nine or 10 players getting together to go to the movies orย get a bunch of them over at one guy's house to play video games.
Westbrook and Durant only further enhanced their chemistry with their time in Istanbul. The longer you play together with teammates, the more in-sync you become.ย Long-term, this will be instrumental for their confidence...and likely keep OKC around as major players in the Western Conference for years to come.
He Is an Alpha Dog
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We wanted to see Durant take this team over. We wanted to see him make big plays down the stretch. We wanted to see how we would react with the pressure on.
He passed all tests with flying colors. Now there's no doubt; he's the alpha dog we all hoped he would become.
He killed Russia's hopes with back-breaking shots in the second half.
He single-handedly kept Lithuania at bay in the first half, scoring 20 points and hitting a mind-boggling array of shots in the final period that could only be duplicated on NBA Jam.
And in the finals against Turkey, in one of the loudest and rowdiest venues he's ever been in, he coolly and calmly drained three after three and sucked the life out of the crowd.
He's got a little swagger now as well. After nailing a three late against Lithuania, he turned and nodded toward the crowd, popped the front of his USA jersey and saluted as he headed to the bench. It wasn't done to show up the opposition, but rather showed how invested in the game he really was. He wanted so badly to win for his country...and he did.
And he was the reason why. As Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo! Sports wrote, "He's no underdog anymore. He's an Alpha Dog."
The rest of the NBA should take notice.
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