The Keys to The Game For The CANES To Win at Ohio State Tomorrow

We are now a little over 30 hours from kickoff up in Columbus. Here is what I think will be the important keys for the CANES to leave Columbus a winner tomorrow afternoon.

• J12 needs to have a 60% completion rate - In the starts Harris has had in his career, when he's won vs. Top 25 teams, his completion rate has been over 60%.
  • @ #18 Florida State 21-34 (62%) 386 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT
  • Vs. #14 Georgia Tech 20-25 (80%) 270 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INT
  • Vs. #8 Oklahoma 19-28 (68%) 202 yards, 3 TDs, 2 INTs
• In the games we’ve lost vs. Top 25 teams, J12’s completion percentage has not been good.
  • @#11 Virginia Tech 9-25 (36%) 150 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT
  • Vs. #25 Wisconsin (Champs Sports Bowl, Orlando) 16-29 (55%) 188 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT
• Another problem has been pass protection, in the games Miami has lost vs. Top 25 teams, here are Harris’ numbers:
  • @#11 Virginia Tech – sacked 3 times
  • Vs. #25 Wisconsin – sacked 5 times
• In games Miami has won vs. Top 25 teams, here are the sack numbers
  • @#18 Florida State – sacked once
  • Vs. #14 Georgia Tech – wasn’t sacked
  • Vs. #8 Oklahoma – sacked 4 times

The simple fact is this: The Offensive Line MUST come up HUGE tomorrow and protect Harris in this game. When the CANES have won vs. Top 25 teams, Harris’ average completion percentage has been almost 70%. However, when the CANES have lost, the average completion percentage drops to 46%. If the former happens tomorrow, the CANES will definitely leave Columbus a winner.

The next key to the game is winning the Turnover Margin battle. Against Top 25 teams, in the Shannon era, here are the numbers:

• September 8^th , 2007 – L @#5 Oklahoma 51-13, the Turnover Margin was +1
• September 20^th , 2007 = W vs. #16 Texas A & M 34-17, the Turnover Margin was 0
• November 10^th , 2007 – L vs. #21 UVa 48-0, the Turnover Margin was -4
• November 17^th , 2007 – L @#10 Virginia Tech 44-14, the Turnover Margin was -3
• September 6^th , 2008 – L @#5 Florida 26-3, the Turnover Margin was 0
• September 7^th , 2009 – W @#18 Florida State 38-34, the Turnover Margin was 0
• September 17^th , 2009 – W vs. #14 Georgia Tech 33-17, the Turnover Margin was 0
• September 26^th , 2009 – L @#11 Virginia Tech 31-7, the Turnover Margin was -1
• October 3^rd, 2009 – W vs. #8 Oklahoma 21-20, the Turnover Margin was -1
• December 29^th, 2009 – L vs. #25 Wisconsin 20-14 (Champs Bowl, Orlando), the Turnover Margin was +2

The average turnover margin in games vs. Top 25 teams was a -6. Tomorrow would be a very good time to win the Turnover Battle and give Harris and company short fields to work with. When Miami last played a Big 10 team (Wisconsin), they actually won the Turnover battle at +2, yet, still lost that game.

The next key to the game is getting 150 yards combined from CANE running backs. In games vs. Top 25 teams in the Shannon era, here are the total rushing yards and total rushing yards allowed:

• September 8^th , 2007 - @#5 Oklahoma – 116 yards on 45 carries, 2.6 ypc (CANES 52 yards on 35 carries, 1.5 ypc)
• September 20^th, 2007 – vs. #16 Texas A & M – 98 yards on 33 carries, 1 TD, 3 ypc (CANES 127 yards on 40 carries, 2 TDs, 3.2 ypc)
• November 10^th, 2007 – vs. #21 UVa – 130 yards on 39 carries, 4 TDs, 3.3 ypc (CANES 95 yards on 39 carries, 2.4 ypc)
• November 17^th, 2007 - @#10 Virginia Tech – 182 yards on 43 carries, 4 TDs, 4.2 ypc (CANES -2 yards on 29 carries, 1 TD, -.1 ypc)
• September 6^th, 2008 - @#5 Florida – 89 yards on 27 carries, 1 TD, 3.3 ypc (CANES 61 yards on 37 carries, 1.6 ypc)
• September 7^th, 2009 - @#18 Florida State – 110 yards on 30 carries, 1 TD, 3.7 ypc (CANES 90 yards on 30 carries, 4 TDs, 3 ypc)
• September 17^th, 2009 – vs. #14 Georgia Tech – 95 yards on 39 carries 1 TD, 2.4 ypc (CANES 184 yards on 39 carries, 1 TD, 4.7 ypc)
• September 26^th, 2009 - @#11 Virginia Tech – 272 yards on 55 carries, 2 TDs, 4.9 ypc (CANES 55 yards on 34 carries, 1 TD, 1.7 ypc)
• October 3^rd, 2009  - vs. #8 Oklahoma – 153 yards on 42 carries, 1 TD, 3.6 ypc (CANES 140 yards on 32 carries, 4.4 ypc)
• December 29^th, 2009 – vs. #25 Wisconsin (Champs Bowl) – 170 yards on 42 carries, 2 TDs, 4 ypc (CANES 61 yards on 23 carries, 1 TD, 2.7 ypc)

In the 4 CANE wins vs Top 25 teams, they’ve averaged 135.2 ypg on the ground, with 7 TDs. That breaks down to 3.6 ypc. When the CANES have won vs. Top 25 teams, the D has allowed 114 ypg and 4 TDs. That breaks down to an average of 3.2 ypc. So the Run Defense has come up big in those wins. However, in the 6 losses, the CANE rushing offense has averaged just 53.6 ypg and 3 TDs. That’s an average of 1.6 ypc. The CANE run defense has allowed opponents in those 6 losses, an average of 159.8 ypg and 9 TDs. That’s an average of 3.8 ypc.

This is going to be important, which CANE Run game shows up tomorrow? The one vs. FSU last year that scored 4 TDs rushing? Or the one that had just 55 yards and 1 TD @VT?  I need to see the CANES come up like the OU game last year where they rushed as a team for 140 yards on 32 carries.

Next key is to have 3+ sacks from the Defense. I mentioned earlier that Harris in the losses vs. Top 25 teams was sacked 8 times. The Defense last week vs FAMU sacked the QBs 8 times. Realistically, the CANE Defense won’t sack Pryor 8 times tomorrow, though it would be nice. The breakdown of the sacks and sacks allowed of the 10 games the Miami Hurricanes have played vs. Top 25 teams (4-6).

• September 8^th, 2007 - @#5 Oklahoma – 1 sacks for a loss of 8 yards (2 sacks allowed for a total loss of 12 yards)
• September 20^th, 2007 - #16 Texas A & M – 3 sacks for a total loss of 12 yards (2 sacks allowed for a total loss of 12 yards)
• November 10^th, 2007 - #21 UVa – 2 sacks for a total loss of 4 yards (4 sacks allowed for a total loss of 30 yards)
• November 17^th 2007 - @#10 VT – 4 sacks for a total loss of 29 yards (5 sacks allowed for a total loss of 44 yards)
• September 6^th, 2008 - @#5 Florida – 1 sack for a loss of 9 yards (3 sacks allowed for a total loss of 20 yards)
• September 7^th, 2009 - @#18 Florida State – 2 sacks for a total loss of 17 yards (1 sack allowed for a loss of 8 yards)
• September 17^th, 2009 - #14 Georgia Tech – 2 sacks for a total loss of 8 yards (0 sacks allowed)
• September 26^th, 2009 - @#11 Virginia Tech – 0 sacks (3 sacks allowed for a total loss of 28 yards)
• October 3^rd, 2009 - #8 Oklahoma – 3 sacks for a total loss of 17 yards (4 sacks allowed for a total loss of 32 yards)
• December 29, 2009 - #25 Wisconsin (Champs Sports Bowl, Orlando) – 1 sack for a loss of 8 yards (5 sacks allowed for a total loss of 25 yards)

When this is broken down, in our 4 wins, we’ve recorded 10 sacks for a total loss of 54 yards, while giving up 7 for a total loss of 52 yards (+2). In our 6 losses, we’ve recorded 9 sacks for a total loss of 58 yards, while giving up 22 sacks for a total loss of 159 yards (-101). So the Defense pressuring Pryor tomorrow will be crucial to the CANES winning the field position battle. If our D get 3+ sacks tomorrow, we have a very good chance of winning.   
 
The O needs to stay out of Long yardage situations. When playing Top 25 teams, its critical that you convert on 3^rd downs. The shorter the yardage, the better it is you’re going to convert. We have to force Ohio State into long yardage situations on 3^rd downs and not let them convert like they did vs Oregon in the Rose Bowl.

Those are my keys to the game tomorrow. I think Miami comes up big defensively late and I think they’re going to put Harris and company in very close range to seal the game late with a TD to break Ohio State’s back.

My prediction for tomorrow: Miami 38 Ohio State 24