U.S. Open 2010: Why Murray is a bad match-up for Nadal

People often talk about who is their favorite player to watch on the tennis court. While I have certain favorite players I prefer watching over others, I’m more interested in match ups. My three favorites are Nalbandian, Federer and Davydenko. But give me Nadal vs. Murray any day over a Davydenko vs. Ferrer, Federer vs. Berrer, or Nalbandian vs. Niemenen. I don’t particularly like watching either Nadal or Murray, but I’d say it’s my favorite match up along with Nalbandian vs. Nadal.

Aside from maybe Nalbandian, no player who’s had success against Nadal puts more thought into playing the Spaniard than the Scotsman. On hard courts, Nadal’s used to players stepping in and hurting him off the first strike. Not many can do it over the course of a set, much less three or five. But even those who can do so, find Nadal making adjustments over the course of two or three meetings and making them feel helpless.

The 24 year old from Majorca has conquered all of the heavy ball strikers who have once thumped him into submission on important occasions. He has won the last few encounters with Fernando Gonzalez since he lost to the Chilean at the 2007 Australian Open in straight sets. He has also won four straight matches against the hard hitting Tsonga, who crushed him in straight sets at the 2008 Australian Open. He has similarly reversed head to head records against Blake, Berdych and Youzhny all of whom once agonized Rafa on fast courts.

Murray, however, has won 4 out of their last 5 encounters on hard courts save for one match in 2009 which we can discount as a freak occurrence because of hurricane winds. The Brit’s success against Rafa boils down to his varied game plan, as opposed to going full throttle on each point to break Nadal’s defenses down. In fact, often Murray will carve out a point such that the winning shot isn’t even close to the lines.

The tall Scotsman is quite comfortable taking on Nadal’s heavy topspin forehands with his backhand. In fact, like many of the big hitters on tour, he can bully Nadal with his crosscourt backhand pushing him further back behind the baseline. But unlike other players who then need to hit a sharp crosscourt or a big down the line to win the point - and both shots that the Scot possesses - Murray also brings finesse into the equation to expand his options.

He can slice the ball to bring Nadal out of his metres-behind-the-baseline comfort zone, or hit delicate drop shots off either wing. The added variety is key in keeping Nadal off balance, which is why he can often look flat footed against Murray. In addition, the Scotsman’s skills at the net are excellent so that even when his approaches are less than perfect, Murray can ward off Nadal’s top notch passing attempts.

So it seems simple enough that Murray’s backhand to Nadal’s forehand is what gets him the win each time right, akin to Nadal’s peppering of Federer’s backhand with heavy spin? Except if it was just that, Nadal would have tuned his game to knock off Murray’s teeth. Murray is seldom quick to pull the trigger against Nadal. He is content to rally and bide his time.

The Brit can trade crosscourt forehands with Nadal’s backhand well enough so that the World No. 1 doesn’t get a short ball to open up the court, or to run around his backhand and dictate with the forehand. And in case Nadal does get the opportunity to dictate, Murray’s fast enough to track down most balls and even return them with interest when the opportunity arises.

Nadal knows that unless he hits a screamer down the line backhand, Murray’s agility will see him in position to hit his favorite backhand, and get his preferred diagonal. Murray will often hit a couple softballs with his backhand to Nadal’s backhand, only to suddenly unleash a vicious crosscourt backhand. Nadal knows that if he leans crosscourt, Murray can easily hit it up the line with pace.

Meanwhile, Murray has enough confidence in his forehand to go up the line with interest every now and then to keep Nadal from getting too comfortable with the crosscourt backhand. He is also adept at changing the pace with his forehand, often going for loopy topspin forehands with sidespin to push Nadal back and prevent him from running around his backhand.

And when Nadal hits an up the line slice, as he often does against big hitters to break their rhythm Murray doesn’t rush to unleash a crosscourt backhand. Instead he again has a few options. He can hit the slice back up the line, which he often does, and with more bite to elicit a weak reply from the Spaniard.

If Nadal doesn’t hit a good topspin shot, Murray can jump all over the hanging ball and go either direction with it. And in case Nadal’s slice isn’t good enough – which is normally hit back up the line as the flow of play dictates - Murray can hit a deep crosscourt or hard backhand up the line to gain an edge. Even if Nadal is up to the task, Murray is in no rush to end the point knowing that any sudden surge by the Spaniard can be neutralized with a quick dash.

Lastly, Murray also has an advantage when it comes to the two biggest shot’s in today’s tennis: the serve and the return. During patches in the match when Murray’s strokes lose a bit of accuracy, or if Nadal gets hot, the Scot can often rely on his first serve to win himself some cheap points. On Nadal’s serve, Murray’s excellent returns particularly off the backhand prevent Nadal from dictating points from the third shot.

Given all of Murray’s strengths, it really is no surprise that Nadal has all sorts of problems with him on hard courts. On grass and clay, it’s a different story. On clay Nadal is a far better player than Murray, though the second set of their 2009 Monte Carlo match was an epic.

On grass, the lack of true bounce makes it hard for Murray to punish Nadal’s loopy strokes. Nadal’s lefty serve also becomes more of a weapon as it skids low and out of Murray’s strike zone.I also think Murray is not as comfortable defending on grass courts.

However, on hard courts Murray’s strengths are optimized against Nadal. That said, I wouldn’t rule out Nadal beating Murray at the Open. Much like Federer, the Roland Garros and Wimbledon champion has time and again reversed losing head to head records against players that once dominated him.

Nadal’s will to win and constant efforts to improve tactically and otherwise, means he can’t be written off. If he faces off against Murray on Super Saturday at the Open, I’m shelling out dough for pizza, and putting an equal amount on the great British hope!