Yao Ming Cleared for Takeoff: What That Means for Houston Rockets, NBA
This article courtesy of Rip City Report.
Yao Ming received full clearance to participate in basketball related activities today and I'm sure that peaked the interest of many Houston Rocket fans.
There was some speculation that Yao was done with basketball. Many said that he could never recover from the break in his foot, one that required a very complex operation, mostly due to his size and weight.
Now that Yao has cleared the first hurdle, it is almost a sure bet that he is going to lace em' up for the 2011 NBA season.
So what does that mean for the Rockets organization?
Well, considering that the last time Yao was on the court for an entire season, the Rockets won 53 games and were given the fifth seed in the Western Conference.
Yao averaged 19.7 points, 9.9 rebounds, and 1.9 blocks in his last full season.
But Rockets fans shouldn't expect to see Yao at full strength at all next season, and almost certainly not early on, when the Rockets have said they will limit him minutes through the first 20 games of the season.
Even with part of Yao's production, the Rockets are a better team because he gives them added height (obviously) and depth to the Rockets fairly meek center rotation.
Even if Yao doesn't work out, the Rockets made a shrewd move in the offseason by signing Brad Miller, giving them a clear option at center with or without Ming on the court.
If the Rockets have Yao Ming for the entire season, healthy and back to his 2008-2009 form, Houston will have home court advantage heading into the playoffs.
I would look for them to win anywhere from 50-55 games If Yao is at full strength.
But that is unlikely.
Very unlikely.
If Yao plays 30 games next season and struggles to find a rhythm, I cannot see a way that the Rockets improve their win totals from last season enough so that they win a playoff bid.
They added Brad Miller, which will help a ton, and they also added Courtney Lee, which basically cancels out the loss of Trevor Ariza.
So maybe the Rockets pull out a five or six win improvement, but I don't see this team ultimately making the playoffs with Yao playing only 30 games.
Prediction: 44-48 Wins
So that leaves one last scenario: what if Yao plays in almost all of the Rockets games at about 60 percent of his 2008-2009 production?
Obviously, if Yao isn't playing near 75 percent of what he is capable of, the Rockets will start Brad Miller at center.
At 11.7 points and 7.5 rebounds in around 30 minutes a game, Miller is a very serviceable center and a good option to defer to if Yao doesn't find his rhythm by midseason.
Of course, Yao could step into a starting role if the Rockets find him coming into his own later in the season, but for now, you let Miller have the starting spot and allow Ming to ease his way into live action.
With that said, the Rockets will be competing for a playoff spot. How high or how low depends on how effective the big fella is while he is out on the court.
I think a conservative estimate with that scenario, would be 48-52 wins.
So what does all this mean for the Western Conference?
Well, it very much depends on Yao.
Obviously, if Yao is playing, the Western Conference will be deeper and the battle for a playoff spot will become more intense.
The 8th seed through 12th seed spots in the Western Conference will become much more competitive, making the wild west even more wild than it was last season.
If the Rockets make the playoffs, that likely means that a team deserving of a playoff spot will have to sit out.
Really the return of Yao means nothing until he plays in the NBA regular season, but the resurgence of the Chinese star would scramble the NBA communities previous thoughts about the 2011 season.
It's all up in the air until late October, but for now, we know that Yao will give it a go for the 2011 NBA season.
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