LSU v. UNC Chick-fil-A Game Preview: A Real Mess

The LSU Tigers take on the UNC Tar Heels on September 4, 2010, at 8 PM EDT. Despite the lopsided scores, the first two games were sold out by the universities. For the first time in its three game history, some tickets were returned by both universities for this year's clash.

We can speculate about the reasons for the absence of ticket sales like the last two games. The right take could be that this game is so uncertain that neither university has enough fans who think their team will win to make the trip. Another possibility is that the economy is such that the tickets are not being grabbed as quickly by those marginal buyers.

What we do know is that the first game of the year is so uncertain most big money will come in at the end. And it is likely to be favoring North Carolina. The reasons have everything to do with the reality of the Tar Heels football team. They have little to do with LSU.

The biggest uncertainty is probably the quarterback. Will T.J. Yates play at all? Will he follow his path to interception destruction? Will Bryn Renner, perhaps the most highly-touted quarterback ever to come to North Carolina, start? And how will this all affect the end result anyway?

Another uncertainty is when the results of the NCAA investigation will end. This will determine the fate of two prominent UNC players, Marvin Austin and Greg Little.  If they were involved in improper activities under NCAA rules, UNC could lose at least these players, playing under NCAA penalties that could affect future recruiting as well as all those involved.

The departure of Brandon Willis might be seen as related to this investigation, but it is not.

It really is a completely fortuitous turn of events for UCLA. Willis' father was transferred to Southern California, and Willis wants to remain close to his father after his mother's death.

The investigation is claimed to have had a huge impact on UNC already. Kirk Herbstreit, ABC analyst for the game, says:

"You can imagine what it's like living this every day for these coaches and these players," Herbstreit said in a conference call with reporters. "As much as they're trying to go out there and prep and get ready for these lofty expectations, make no mistake, this is an issue. It's almost becoming a dark cloud that's kind of hovering over their program until they get some answers from the NCAA."

Is this really correct? Are the Tar Heels having problems concentrating?

In what may be the most telling issue for the current uncertainty, the College Football News website, presented by Fox Sports in association with MSN, says that UNC is 13th in its Preseason 2010 CFN Power Rankings, with LSU 22nd. Yet the same group puts the UNC season as 6-6 and makes LSU the favorite in their game.

So where does this all come out? Will UNC live up to its power ranking or will it crumble under the pressure.

Only this column has predicted a UNC blowout. The reasons have everything to do with the pressure of the NCAA investigations and the quarterback situation.

As to the investigations, this writer believes that, based on past investigations, the NCAA will announce nothing until the end of the season. There is just too much going on for the limited staff at the NCAA to provide its analyses and for the NCAA to act by early September.

Also, there is no proof that an investigation has any negative effect on the play of a team over one or many games. This appears to be pure speculation.

In past columns, I predicted that T.J. Yates will start. On the other hand, there is nothing that would change if Renner is considered superior by game time. In fact, Renner is favored to replace T.J. Yates and get real game experience by the end of the third quarter no matter what the results on the field.

So we come to the current odds in this game. Why is UNC giving points and expected to have a 6-6 season despite their team strength? And if you are betting, when do you place your bets?

After the end of this week. By that time, if no announcement has been made there will be none. And the first part of this column's prediction comes true. Bet the Tar Heels. 

And that is The Real Truth.