Fantasy Football: Three Quarterbacks Who Can Outperform Their ADP

Any fantasy team can win with a top-flight quarterback.  It's not very difficult to score a ton of points with Drew Brees or Aaron Rodgers as your starter.  Barring injury, it's basically a given.  However, instead of using that early pick on a QB, waiting until a few rounds later to choose that QB can give you a big advantage on drafting another stud at the RB or WR positions.  In part one of this series, we look at which quarterbacks are going later in their drafts than they should, and have the upside to post top-10 seasons.

(ADP, or average draft position, is the average draft rankings of six well-known fantasy football websites.  YPA, or yards per attempt, is the average amount of yards a player gains per attempt, successful or not, whether it's a pass, rush, or reception)

Eli Manning - ADP 74 (12th QB Taken)

The New York Giants have one of the youngest receiving groups in the league.  Steve Smith had 152 targets last year, Hakeem Nicks is ready to develop into a #1 guy, and Mario Manningham has a 10.7 YPA against non-cornerbacks, which makes him a great slot receiver.  This isn't even mentioning Ramses Barden, as well as the pre-season surprise of week 1 Victor Cruz.  The Giants offensive line is not the greatest pass blocking group in the league, but just like his brother Peyton, he doesn't miss a game.  All in all it adds up to possible top-five production at a sixth or seventh round value.

Vince Young - ADP 113 (20th QB Taken)

Fantasy players can have a short memory.  If you take the amount of fantasy points scored by Vince Young during the Titans run last year, and you averaged that out over the course of the entire season last year, he would have had a top 10 QB point total.  Plus, the improvement of Kenny Britt will only help.  He probably won't ever be an elite fantasy quarterback, but his running ability limits his downside, and combining him with a proven starter could be a very prudent move.

Alex Smith - ADP 136 (21st QB Taken)

Is this the year he posts top 10 stats?  Shockingly, it could be.  First off, he has a very favorable schedule, with his matchups including two games against the Rams and Seahawks, along with games against the Saints, Chiefs, and Buccaneers.  Secondly, it looks like Michael Crabtree could be the next great receiver in San Francisco.  Pro-rated, Crabtree would have been targeted 122 times over a sixteen-game season.  Between him, Vernon Davis (an elite TE, thanks to Mr. Singletary) and two pass-catching RB's in Frank Gore and Brian Westbrook, Alex should post very solid fantasy numbers.  A top 10-15 showing is definitely in reach.

If you decide to not go the elite QB route, drafting Eli Manning in the sixth or seventh round combined with either Vince Young or Alex Smith later on in the draft could combine for top-five fantasy points, and give you the production at the quarterback position to hoist the trophy at the end of the year.

Next article: Three Running Backs Who Can Outperform Their ADP

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