2010 College Football Predictions: Boise State’s Path to the BCS Title

The Boise State Broncos first captured the attention of the college football world with a flawless 2006 season capped by a dramatic overtime win against Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl.

Over the last four years, they have continued to impress and prove that they belong among the best teams in college football. They have even earned the distinction of being the highest rated non-BCS conference school.

Last season, the Broncos once again finished the year with a perfect record. Considering that they have a fairly easy schedule, this Boise State team returning 21 out of 22 starters, will have another chance to finish its season undefeated.

Will that finally be enough to earn them a chance for a national championship? Perhaps it is, but before that happens, a few more things need to go the Broncos' way.

Here's a look at a possible path to Boise State's potential title run this season.

Win vs. Virginia Tech

For the Broncos, a possible run to the national championship starts with Virginia Tech.

This is a statement game for Boise State against a very formidable out-of-conference opponent.

The Va Tech Hokies are the favorites to win the ACC this year, and they are ranked No. 6 in the preseason USA Today Coaches' Poll.

A win against VT sets the tone for the rest of the season. It once again earns them respect and solidifies their place as a top-ranked team in the BCS standings.

Ohio State Falls

Jeff Gross/Getty Images

PASADENA, CA - JANUARY 01: Defensive back Devon Torrence #10 of the Ohio State Buckeyes reacts during the game against the Oregon Ducks at the 96th Rose Bowl game on January 1, 2010 in Pasadena, California. (Photo by Jeff Gross/Getty Images)

Ohio State starts the season as the No. 2 team in the coaches' poll.

However, the Buckeyes have a tough schedule ahead of them. They will be facing four of the top 25 ranked teams this season.

If an upstart Miami (FL) team, ranked 13th in the polls, manages to upset Ohio State in the second game of the season, OSU is sure to drop a few spots in the rankings, thereby creating some room for Boise State to make an upward move in the standings.

OSU will also be facing a high-powered Wisconsin offense in the middle of their schedule, as well as strong football teams in Iowa and Penn State later in the year. All three teams have a fair shot at defeating them.

A loss or two to any of those three teams would certainly take them out of consideration for the national title game.

Beat Wyoming

The second game of the season for the Boise State Broncos is another out-of-conference opponent: the Wyoming Cowboys.

For this matchup, Boise State will be playing away and is still expected to win because this Wyoming team lost six games and was 0-4 against top 25 teams last season.

Wyoming is from the Mountain West Conference, future home of the Broncos, and unfortunately for them they'll be seeing more of Boise State starting next season.

The Oregon State Matchup

After the Virginia Tech game, this out-of-conference duel against No. 22-ranked Oregon State is probably the second-most anticipated game of the season for the Broncos.

Remember, this is virtually the same Boise State team that dispatched Pac-10 offensive powerhouse Oregon in its first game of the season last year. That Oregon team was ranked No. 14 by the coaches at the time.

There's no reason to believe that the Broncos can't find a way to shut down the Rodgers brothers and the rest of the Beavers the same way they shut down Jeremiah Masoli and the Ducks.

As for the Beavers, they'll have to face two top-10 teams, TCU and Boise State, in their first three games. Top that off with a very stacked Pac-10, and it will be hard to imagine them moving up any further in the rankings.

Tough SEC: Florida vs. Alabama

In the USA Today Coaches' Poll, two of the top five teams—Alabama and Florida—are from the extremely tough SEC.

If Boise State wants to improve its shot at the national championship, Florida or Alabama needs to falter.

In the fourth game of the season, conference rivals Florida and Alabama face off against each other. Add to that another possible matchup in the SEC championship, and this means that either of these two teams could have as many as two losses come bowl bid time.

For the Gators, they also face some tough matches against Georgia and Florida State.

Meanwhile, the Crimson Tide could be upset by Penn State in the second game of the season, or they could even lose to arch-rival and much improved Auburn in their annual end of the year matchup.

Despite their tougher conference schedules, two or more losses for Florida or Alabama will probably take them out of the top two spots on the BCS rankings.

The Big 12 Battle: Texas and the Rest

The preseason started with three Big 12 teams (Texas, Nebraska and Oklahoma) in the top 10. By the end of the year it's hard to imagine all three teams maintaining their respective spots.

Out of the trio, Texas is ranked the highest at No. 4, but this is a Texas team with a new quarterback in Garrett Gilbert.

It's unlikely that Gilbert can lead the Longhorns to an undefeated season, nor is it any likelier that he can lead them to a one-loss season like the departed Colt McCoy did last year.

With early season games against Texas Tech and UCLA, as well as a late season face-off against Texas A&M, possible upsets could be brewing against Texas. Add to that head-to-head matches against Big 12 foes Nebraska and Oklahoma, and this could mean that the Longhorns might have at least two losses only halfway through the year.

If Texas drops out of No. 4, Boise State will get ever so close to a spot in the top two.

Beat Toledo

Boise State vs. Toledo is the fourth and last out-of-conference game for the Broncos.

The Toledo Rockets aren't expected to be much of a threat to Boise State in this match. They lost seven games last year while playing in the MAC West.

A win against Toledo is necessary for Boise State to guarantee a perfect out-of-conference record.

Big East in the BCS Title Game?

Pittsburgh is said to be the heavy favorite to win the Big East title, and they are ranked No. 15 in the coaches' poll.

However, they have a schedule that matches them up with two top-ranked teams in their first three games: Utah and Miami (FL). Both teams could prove to be problematic for Pittsburgh and might give them a tough start.

Two of their games at the end of the season are against Big East rivals West Virginia and Cincinnati, both of which are capable of handing Pittsburgh a loss.

What does this mean for Boise State?

Pittsburgh is possibly the biggest threat coming out of the Big East, but they'll need to have a perfect season to make it to the national championship game, and with their schedule, that's not a very likely scenario.

12-0 and Another WAC Championship

Assuming Boise State's biggest threats this season, top 25 teams in Virginia Tech and Oregon State, are defeated, they could easily just run through the rest of their competition.

A win against Utah State will possibly put the Broncos at 12-0 and in great position to finish their season with another perfect record, a feat that they've already accomplished twice in the last four seasons.

Could this year make it three out of the last five? Definitely.

They've proven that they can dominate the WAC and also beat out-of-conference opponents. 

Fiesta Bowl-Bound: A Trip to Glendale

This could definitely be the year for Boise State. But an undefeated season is not all the Broncos need to get to Glendale, Arizona.

Top-five teams such as Texas, Ohio State, Florida and even Alabama also need to take some hits and fall back in the rankings.

While a perfect season for the Broncos could be a real possibility, a perfect run from any of the other top teams will be more difficult to accomplish.

Unlike Boise State, they play in tougher conferences, face daunting schedules, and even have new personnel that they are trying to integrate into the team.

While the BCS takes schedules and conferences into consideration, they can also no longer ignore Boise State's constant ability to decisively win in the WAC and defeat top opponents.

With another perfect run and some teams expected to fall out of the top five, Boise State, aided by their preseason No. 5 ranking, will find themselves in Glendale, Arizona to play in the BCS National Championship Game.