Ranking NL Rookie of the Year Candidates: Where Does Starlin Castro Fit?
This has truly been the "year of the rookie" in Major League Baseball, and the Cubs have one of the brightest in 20-year-old shortstop Starlin Castro. But is he the leading candidate to capture NL Rookie of the Year honors?
Castro has hit over .300 since being called up by the Cubs, and while he has made more than his share of errors, he does have good range and a strong arm.
His future with the team is one of the few bright spots of this downtrodden ballclub.
But there are a lot of promising rookies, so let's see where Castro ranks among them in his quest to be the first Cubs ROY since Geo Soto and sixth all-time.
Here we go...
10. St. Louis Cardinals David Freese, Jon Jay and Jaime Garcia
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Cards' rookies Freese, Jay, and Garcia have had solid starts to their careers.
In 240 ABs, third baseman Freese has produced a slash line of .296/.361/.404, though he will undergo season-ending surgery to repair tendons in his right ankle.
Perhaps the injury was bothering him for awhile, as he was on fire earlier in the season and looking like a possible ROY contender.
Meanwhile, in only 145 ABs, Jay is hitting well, to say the least. A slash of .372/..418/.559 is unrealistic, of course, but with Ryan Ludwick's trade, Jay's playing time should only increase.
While his more than 43 percent of balls put in play falling for hits so far and a minor league track record which isn’t all that distinguished might portend to a less than stellar career, if he can keep up this pace for the rest of the season, he might get some votes. He looks to be an above average defender in the corner outfield.
But Cardinals lefty pitcher Garcia is a possible candidate, though he would need to win some games going forward, given the propensity for voters to not value pitchers highly and given his lack of hype as compared to Mike Leake of the Reds.
Garcia is 10-5 with a 2.71 ERA in 22 starts, though his recent trend isn't favorable. Over his last two starts, he has given up 12 runs in 10.1 innings pitched, though only eight were earned.
9. Jonny Venters, Atlanta Braves
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Venters has quietly produced an otherworldly ERA of 1.07 in 53 games with the Braves this season.
The lefty is 4-0, has allowed just 33 hits, and has struck out 62 batters in 58.2 innings pitched so far. Amazingly,right-handed hitters are hitting just .163 vs. the 25-year-old Venters.
So why isn't he ranked higher on this list? Well, the unfortunate fact is that pitchers have a harder time getting ROY support, especially non-starters and relievers who don't have saves.
His one save and 18 holds just won't get it done, though he deserves to be a candidate.
8. Mike Stanton, Florida Marlins
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The Marlins powerful rookie is hitting only .259 but his monstrous power has him in the conversation for ROY, though he will likely not win the award.
Stanton has hit 11 homers in only 189 ABs, good for a .519 slugging line. Whether he wins the ROY or not, this kid is only 20 years old and looks to be a solid regular for years to come.
7. Mike Leake, Cincinnati Reds
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Earlier in the season, when Leake was 7-1, he was likely the leading candidate for ROY in the NL.
Since then, however, he has cooled down and we all know that many writers still look at wins and losses when judging a pitcher, even though that is pointless, of course.
Still, Leake is in the conversation, as he is 7-4, with a 3.75 ERA, though he has given up an unsightly 141 hits in 129.2 innings pitched so far.
Figuring he has maybe nine more starts, he would have to win perhaps seven of those decisions to even have a chance, which is unlikely.
6. Stephen Strasburg, Washington Nationals
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Despite the unprecedented hype surrounding Strasburg's arrival in the big leagues, he is equally unlikely to take this award, as he just won't have enough of the counting stats that writers look for.
Recently activated from the DL, the kid phenom is 5-3, with a 3.07 ERA and 79 strikeouts in only 58.2 innings pitched.
His shaky return from the DL was mainly due to control issues, as his fastball looked strong, so his shoulder appears to be fine.
He won't be the ROY, but he may end up being the best of the bunch in the long run.
5. Gaby Sanchez, Florida Marlins
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The 26-year-old first baseman has hit very well in his inaugural season, producing a slash line of .290/.351/.455 so far.
Sanchez is quietly gaining support, and with a strong finish will be a contender for the ROY.
4. Tyler Colvin, Chicago Cubs
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Colvin isn't a very patient hitter, and the fact that he may split votes with teammate Starlin Castro may hurt him in his bid for ROY.
However, there is no denying that he will have the counting stats to be in the running if he continues to hit homers and get regular playing time the rest of the season.
Colvin has slugged 18 homers in just 274 ABs, and his .526 SLG percentage is leading all NL rookies. His low batting average will hurt his chances, however.
3. Jason Heyward, Atlanta Braves
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The "J-Hey kid" has a lot of support, though his low batting average and stint on the DL may prevent him from winning an award that seemed to be a lock earlier in the season.
He has hit 12 homers and driven in 51 runs but is hitting only .261. Still, if the more enlightened writers look at the stat that really matters, his OBP of .377 is worthy of strong consideration.
Heyward plays solid defense with a good arm in right field. Whether he wins the award or not, Heyward looks to be a star for a long time in the majors.
2. Starlin Castro, Chicago Cubs
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Castro has made a lot of errors, but if the more enlightened writers look at his range and arm, they will see a star shortstop in the making.
Just 20, Castro is hitting .314 and while he doesn't walk or hit homers, he does play a premium position and has the best batting average of any regular in the NL with more than 300 ABs.
Castro has a lightning-quick bat which should produce greater power as he matures. Along with Strasburg and Heyward, and possibly Stanton, Castro is one of the true stars of the NL going forward.
1. Buster Posey, San Francisco Giants
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Posey wasn't called up early, but he has done nothing but hit since then.
Not only has he had the hype, he plays a premium-value position at catcher and is the leading candidate for ROY, assuming he continues to hit.
In 235 ABs, Posey is hitting .340, with eight home runs and 43 RBI. He is hitting a gaudy .397 away from his home park, and is actually hitting better against right-handed pitchers than lefties.
Posey will win the award if he plays regularly and ends up hitting around his current average.
Honorable Mention: Walker, Tabata, Davis, Johnson, Desmond, Axfor
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There are plenty of rookies who have played well, but just do not have the hype or the amount of time to be strong contenders for the ROY award.
That does not mean these guys aren't worthy of our interest, and perhaps some of them could creep in and steal some votes.
Meanwhile, the Pittsburgh Pirates have had some strong rookies in Neil Walker and Jose Tabata.
Walker is a switch-hitter with a .297 batting average. Tabata is hitting .310 with 12 stolen bases and would have made the list if his manager hadn't said that he will not play regularly going forward, following the return of Ryan Doumit.
The Mets Ike Davis is a strong left-handed slugger with 15 homers and 54 RBI so far. I just don't know who on this list he would replace, though he will get some consideration for ROY.
The Houston Astros' Chris Johnson is another interesting case. He's hitting an outrageous .361 with a .548 slugging percentage and an OPS of .936, but he has only 166 ABs.
Given his high strikeout and low walk rates, along with his minor league track record, it is unwise to think he is for real.
Ian Desmond of the Nats has hit nine homers and stolen 12 bases, but his .296 OBP will be tough to overcome.
Rounding out the near-misses, John Axford of the Milwaukee Brewers is a 27-year old "rookie" who has saved 16 games out of 18 chances, with a 3.16 ERA.
While he also sports a 6-1 record, the Brewers will be trying to give Trevor Hoffman every chance to get the 600th save of his career, so it doesn't seem that Axford will get many more opportunities going forward.
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