Mission Impossible: Can Lions' Ndamukong Suh Outperform $40M Contract?
It’s done.
He’s signed.
He’s practicing.
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
He’s getting after it.
On the morning of Wednesday, August 4, 2010, Detroit Lions team president Tom Lewand shared with me that the team wrapped up contract negotiations with the number two overall selection in the 2010 NFL Draft, and that rookie DT Ndamukong Suh was on an east-bound plane heading for Detroit as we spoke.
Cool beans.
Since the publish of my recent article, Ndamukong Suh's “I Definitely Don't Want to Hold Out” Was Disingenuous, I have come away with the following opinion regarding the eventual signing of Ndamukong Suh:
Don’t hate the player; hate the game.
For those of us who are long-time advocates and defenders of the Detroit Lions’ selection of Ndamukong Suh in the 2010 NFL Draft, myself chief among them, we must be ever mindful that the brief contract holdout by Ndamukong Suh was the result of conditions created by NFL league officials and the NFL players association.
By the sounds of things, the new collective bargaining agreement will restore some sense of order to the pay structure of those entering the league.
Stafford and Suh will be the last of the Lions “big fish” rookie contracts.
Thank goodness.
It’s one thing to justify the guarantee of $41.7 million to your prospective franchise quarterback, but how do you get there from here on a $40 million guarantee for a defensive tackle?
What type of production would it take for you to be able to say, “The Detroit Lions got value from the $40 million guaranteed contract with DT Ndamukong Suh,” and by what timeline would that production need to occur?
How would we quantify the statistical production it might take to support the idea that Ndamukong Suh performed at level that exceeded the cost of his contract?
It will be a herculean task to say the least.
I think we would have to say it would be Suh’s performance in a myriad of ways that will ultimately determine if his play exceeds the price of his draft status.
In order to best determine Suh’s overall production value, we should include his tackles, tackles for loss, sacks, run defense ranking, and pass defense ranking.
Without creating an elaborate weighted matrix, suffice it to say there are many ways by which Ndamukong Suh can create value for his football team. Some of those factors are easily identifiable, such as the quantitative contributions (tackles, sacks, TFL), but the intangibles of team cohesion, trust, locker room presence, and synergy creation are often difficult to measure.
The true measure of effectiveness will be double digits in the win column on an annual basis.
Just to give you an idea of what I’m trying to describe in terms of finding the value a player brings to the organization, I did the math on how expensive a Julian Peterson sack was in 2009: $1.444 million per sack.
Does that seem a little pricey for you, Lions fans?
The general details of the Suh contract provide Ndamukong with a five-year deal worth $60 million and $40 million in guarantees.
Can Ndamukong Suh guarantee to the Detroit Lions and their fan base that his play on the field and overall contribution will exceed the price of his draft status?
So what we’re talking about is a unilateral guarantee on behalf of William Clay Ford.
The contract guarantees that the Ford family has to pay Ndamukong Suh, but the contract does not indemnify the franchise against loss or harm should the player fail to perform at an elite level.
That’s right, friends—an elite level.
You see, when you pay a young man that kind of money, the expectations that accompany the paycheck are equally as high.
As they should be.
I don’t know the fine details of how much Ndamukong’s signing bonus will be and how his salary will be allocated from year to year, but just using straight math, we’ll try to find a greater appreciation for the production numbers requisite to justify the contract numbers.
Regardless the fact that Ndamukong Suh was “All World” in the collegiate ranks over the past couple of seasons, he will now find himself matched against the best 155 offensive linemen on the planet.
This won’t be Nebraska anymore, and it sure as heck ain’t Kansas.
From the contract parameters previously mentioned, if we do the math on just the guaranteed portion, or $40 million over five years, we arrive at $8 million per year in guaranteed salary.
How much of Ndamukong’s contract will be allocated to signing bonus in 2010, and how much of Suh’s contract will be “front loaded” to “benefit” the team during this uncapped season?
When adding his potential signing bonus and front-loaded pay to whatever amount his base salary actually is, Ndamukong Suh could be looking at a very hefty sum of earnings during 2010.
The NFL franchise tag salary for a defensive tackle in 2010 is $7 million. Ndamukong Suh’s salary is sure to exceed that figure in 2010, and more than likely well beyond.
Without extrapolating things too far, let’s speculate upon the prospective cost per sack for Ndamukong Suh in 2010.
Cost Per Sack | |||
Sacks | @ $8M/Season | @ $10M/Season | @ $12M/Season |
1 | $8,000,000 | $10,000,000 | $12,000,000 |
2 | $4,000,000 | $5,000,000 | $6,000,000 |
3 | $2,666,667 | $3,333,333 | $4,000,000 |
4 | $2,000,000 | $2,500,000 | $3,000,000 |
5 | $1,600,000 | $2,000,000 | $2,400,000 |
6 | $1,333,333 | $1,666,667 | $2,000,000 |
7 | $1,142,857 | $1,428,571 | $1,714,286 |
8 | $1,000,000 | $1,250,000 | $1,500,000 |
9 | $888,889 | $1,111,111 | $1,333,333 |
10 | $800,000 | $1,000,000 | $1,200,000 |
11 | $727,273 | $909,091 | $1,090,909 |
12 | $666,667 | $833,333 | $1,000,000 |
Many Detroit Lions fans who understand the nature of the transition from collegiate interior defensive lineman to the professional ranks know that it often takes three or more years to develop the tools requisite to find consistent NFL success.
From this perspective, many feel that if Suh were able to get three or four sacks during his rookie season, he’d be doing well. Production of six or more sacks during Ndamukong’s rookie campaign would be met with much enthusiasm in Motown.
In order to best the unit cost per sack over Julian Peterson’s last year per sack cost of $1.444 million, Suh would need to be credited with six sacks on an $8 million salary to come in at $1.333 million per sack.
That seems like an awfully high ticket sales to sack ratio if you asked me, but such is the nature of the beast.
To be fair, the cost per sack attributed to the play of Ndamukong Suh in 2010 is far from telling about what will become his overall contribution to this team.
Inasmuch as none of us created the climate that led the NFL to its current state of overpaying players selected at the top of the draft, should we be bitter if this young man fails to perform at a level that exceeds the value of his contract?
Ultimately, I’m going to cheer for Ndamukong Suh to be the most successful defensive lineman the Detroit Lions have ever drafted, regardless the cost accounting applied to his production. This is a situation where tremendous specificity does not lend itself to comfort.
I must remind myself of my introspect conclusion: Don’t hate the player; hate the game.
That game is now over.
All members of the pride are present and accounted for, Sir.
What Detroit Lions fans know is that they are counting on their highly-drafted players, Calvin Johnson, Matthew Stafford, and Ndamukong Suh, to deliver on game day and lead this franchise to its fifth NFL World Championship.
They call that big game the Super Bowl these days.
It will be the Suhper Bowl in Detroit.
HäMMëR
My special thanks to Jim “Cannusaylions” Radford, for his co-authorship ideas that contributed to this article.
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
