NFL Predictions for 2010 Season: Will Giants Passing Attack Disappoint?

Eli Manning had a career year in 2009, throwing for 4,000 yards for the first time, while tossing a career high 27 TD passes.  In the four years prior, Manning had averaged 3,395 yards and 23 TD passes per year.  So how did the Giants passing game take off in 2009?  Was it out of necessity, or have the Giants turned into a passing team under conservative HC Tom Coughlin?  The WR core was given a complete overhaul, after Plaxico was incarcerated and Toomer was released.  This led to a Giants decision to go with a youth movement at WR last season. Steve Smith and Mario Mannigham were the starters, and highly touted first round pick Hakeem Nicks was right behind him.  Nicks overtook Manningham about halfway the season, due to Manningham's inconsistent hands and route running.  Steve Smith grabbed 107 passes to set a team record, and became the favorite target of Manning.  This young, but explosive group will look to become one of the better WR core in the NFL in 2010.  Big Blue found themselves in a precarious position last year, which we believe they will avoid this season.    The Giants running game was the worst it has ever been under Tom Coughlin, as was the defense.   Below is a chart of Tom Coughlin’s offense rank and defense ranks as the HC of the Giants:     Team Rushing Rank Passing Rank Defense Rank Pts Against 2004 New York Giants 11th 26th 17th 2005 New York Giants 6th 11th 14th 2006 New York Giants 7th 19th 24th 2007 New York Giants 4th 21st 17th 2008 New York Giants 1st 18th 5th 2009 New York Giants 22nd 11th 30th Last season the Giants rushing attack was limp, as they ranked 22nd in the league, which was the worst since 2004, where the Giants still ranked 11th.  The Giants defense was ranked 30th in the NFL in points allowed, which was only bested by the vaunted defenses of the Rams and Lions.  In seven games last season, the Giants gave up 31, 31, 40, 41, 44, 45, and 48 points to opposing offenses.  That's five games where the defense allowed 40 or more points.  This caused the passing game to be relied on heavily, as the team needed to keep pace with other high powered offenses.  This must of made the likes of Harry Carson and Carl Banks cringe, as Big Blue was always known for having tough defenses.  When Steve Spagnulo left as DC of the Giants, LB coach Bill Sheridan was supposed to have a seamless transition taking over the Giants defense.  The huge amount of points allowed is not what we would normally expect from a traditionally aggressive defensive minded team, and Sheridan was ran out of town.   New York's secondary was deep fried, broiled, barbecued, and burned in 2009, as they gave up 31 TD passes.  Perry Fewell's Bills defenses have only allowed 28 TD passes in the past 2 seasons combined.  The Giants may go to more cover-2 scheme, but with the talent at DE, Fewell will sure not to ignore attacking the QB.  The Giants brought in  S Antrel Rolle and MLB Keith Bulluck, they have 2 budding stars at CB with Terrell Thomas and Corey Webster, but the health of Kenny Phillips will be the key to their secondary’s success.  New York was minus-7 in the turnover battle last season, but Fewell should surely improve on that number, especially as he and Tom Coughlin worked well together during their 5 years in Jacksonville. Brandon Jacobs had a terrible 2009, as the RB went from 15 rushing TDs, to 5 in 2009.  Nagging injuries to Jacobs, and an offensive line that underwhelmed, was a combination that led the team to go from first in rushing offense in 2008, to 22nd in 2009.  He comes into 2010 with injury concerns, as does Ahmad Bradshaw who still is having problems with his injured feet.  In early training camp, Bradshaw has been the most impressive of the Giants' RBs.  Andre Brown could be a guy who can carry the load, if he is fully healed.   The Giants wanted to work the powerful Brown into their rotation last season, but the RB tore his Achilles tendon in the preseason, and never saw the field.  Brown should be ready for training camp, and may find his way into the Giants backfield, sooner rather than later. With Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs getting frequently injured, Brown may be the beneficiary. While Eli Manning enjoyed the best statistical season as a professional, the Giants finished the season 8-8, and missed the playoffs.  Coughlin likes a balanced attack, as referenced in the table above.   Coughlin and the Giants offense passed out of necessity in 2009, not by choice.  Manning will be a solid #2 fantasy QB, but it would be a mistake to believe he can the jump into the elite.  Look for stats closer to his career averages of 3,395 and 23 TDs.   Hakeem Nicks is a guy who could surprise in 2010, and is a popular sleeper in fantasy circles.  He plays bigger than his 6'0 215lb frame, and could slide into the same role that Plaxico Burress did for the Giants during his three plus years with the team.  During the 2005-07 seasons, Plaxico averaged 1,075 yards and 9.6 TDs, numbers that could be obtained by the talented second year WR.  Those numbers were obtained with a rushing attack ranked 6th, 7th, and 4th respectively, so the G-Men could still have a powerful rush attack, while still having a top WR.   Steve Smith's opportunities may be limited in comparison to his 2009 numbers.  He was targeted 159 times, which was good for fourth best in the NFL, and his 107 catches was only second to Wes Welker.  As we have stated above, with the Giants defense improving, and Tom Coughlin’s propensity to run the ball with authority, the Giants will not be the passing Juggernaut many will expect to be in 2010. As a Giants fan, I believe the defense will be much improved under new DC Perry Fewell.  I also believe the Giants rushing attack returns to the forefront, with the passing game being ulitized when needed.  Reaching for Eli Manning and Steve Smith in fantasy drafts is not recommended.  Getting Hakeem Nicks is.  Watch Ahmad Bradshaw in training camp, as he could be the featured back in 2010. Go Big Blue!      Tommy Rowan is the co-founder and writer for fantasyfanplay.com   For all your daily and up to the minute fantasy football news, insights, and analysis follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and dominate your draft with the Fantasy Fan Play Iphone/Ipad App.