The Future of the NL East

Thanks to an influx of youth, the National League East has quietly emerged as the second best division in baseball, behind only its counterpart, the American League East. 

This past year alone, the NL East has featured arguably the four best prospects to be called up in the 2010 season. 

This list includes flame throwing phenom Stephen Strasburg, all-star Jason Heyward, and Mike Stanton and Dominic Brown, two very special talents in their own right. 

Needless to say, the future in the NL East is brighter than ever. This piece attempts to examine how the division will play out and takes a look at each team heading into the future, based on a 3-5 year time frame.

Thanks to an influx of youth, the National League East has quietly emerged as the second best division in baseball behind only its league counterpart, the American League East.  This past year alone the NL East has featured arguably the four best prospects to be called up in the 2010.  A list that includes flame throwing phenom Stephen Strasburg, all-star Jason Heyward, and Mike Stanton and Dominic Brown, two very special talents in their own right.  Needless to say, the future in the NL East is brighter than ever.  This piece attempts to examine how the division will play out and takes a look at each team heading into the future, on a 3-5 year scale.

Atlanta Braves

Future Faces of the Franchise: Jason Heyward, OF—Tommy Hanson, SP—Julio Teheran, SP—Brian McCann, C

The MLB Roster: The current MLB roster isn’t comprised of much young talent at the moment, likely due to the fact that the team is gearing up for one last run for longtime manager Bobby Cox. 

Nevertheless, the organization already has two integral parts of the future in the majors: Jason Heyward and Tommy Hanson.

Heyward’s potential is nearly limitless, as the 20-year-old has already shown that he’s capable of stealing a bag, hitting for power and average, consistently posting a high OBP, and playing a solid right field for the Braves—the definition of a five-tool player. 

Hanson, on the other hand, has the makings of an ace.  He’ll use his four-seamer as his bread and butter, which averages 93.2 on the gun, while using his slider as his out pitch. He’ll also throw a cutter and occasionally a change to mix it up. The organization already has the luxury of employing a franchise catcher in Brian McCann, who's shown that he can consistently launch twenty bombs plus per year, play solid defense, and post a healthy OBP. 

The rotation doesn’t have another “ace” besides Hanson, but Jair Jurrjens has been tremendous since being sent over to Atlanta from Detroit. He's shown that he has the makeup of a long time number three starter. 

Kris Medlen solidifies the upcoming and current rotation as a backend starter that will post mediocre strikeout numbers, but has a track record of having great control. However, Kris just recently had season ending surgery. In the pen, Jonny Ventors is currently the youngest asset at the age of 25. The hard throwing lefty features a fastball that cracks the upper 90’s and a slider that sits in the mid 80’s. There is speculation that he’ll be groomed for the closers role after the departure of Billy Wagner this offseason. 

The Farm: The Braves' farm has gained a reputation around the league as a hotbed for pitching. The class of the young pitchers includes Julio Teheran, a 19-year-old kid who has mouthwatering stuff, coupled with excellent command.  Teheran was just recently promoted to AA after obliterating high A with a line that featured a 10.8 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9. 

After Teheran, the organization still contains plenty of MLB arms in Mike Minor, Arodys Vizcaino, Randall Delgado, and Craig Krimbel. Minor has been sensational this year in AAA, to the tune of a 1.99 ERA, 9.9 K/9, and 2.8 BB/9. In fact, it was reported that Minor will be called up to start Monday and take the place of the injured Medlen. 

With the preseason promotion of Heyward, the organization lacks many impact bats currently in the system. Freddie Freeman is the best position player in the system, but I believe he lacks an elite bat.

To his credit, the first baseman has batted a comfortable .291 with a .358 OBP and 14 homers in 405 plate appearances for AAA this season. With Troy Glaus struggling to hold his own in the majors right now, there are some rumblings that Freeman could get the call to the show sooner than later.  

Florida Marlins

Future Faces of the Franchise: Hanley Ramirez, SS—Josh Johnson, SP—Michael Stanton, OF

The MLB Roster: Notoriously known for being aggressive with their minor league talent, the Marlins have played true to that melody once again in 2010.  Entering the season, Michael Stanton and Logan Morrison were the unanimous top two prospects in the system. 

Stanton is a pure masher. He has plus power, is likely to hit for a solid average, though not spectacular, and plays great defense in right field. At worst case, he’ll likely be a right handed Adam Dunn who can actually contribute in a positive fashion when manning a defensive position. 

Morrison has always been known for the bat, as he’s posted a career .292 average and .383 OBP while in the minors. The power hasn’t progressed as expected and he doesn’t offer a lot on the base paths, but Logan still projects to be a .300 plus hitter who a high OBP.

Due to the makeup of the current roster, the Marlins have shuffled Logan defensively throughout his minor league career. The longtime first baseman was just recently moved to left field after this season’s emergence of Gaby Sanchez. Speaking of Sanchez, he’s likely to remain a fixture in the Marlins for the foreseeable future, as he’s posted a triple slash line of .295/.357/.464 in his first full season in the big leagues. 

Reigning NL rookie of the year Chris Coghlan still figures to be big in the team’s future plans. Though he’s struggled out of the gates, Coghlan has started to regain his 2009 form as the season went on. 

With Morrison now in left, Coghlan will likely shift to either third or second if the team is unable to lock up incumbent second basemen Dan Uggla. With the exception of the four above, the only current players on the roster who should provide significant dividends 3-5 years from now are bona-fide all-stars Hanley Ramirez and Josh Johsnon. Ramirez is locked up till 2014, while the latter is under contract till 2013.

The Farm: The Marlins lack a lot of depth and star potential in the farm after the promotions of Stanton and Morrison, but they feature a gold glove caliber third basemen in Matt Dominguez. 

The main issue with Dominguez is that the glove is much more advanced than the bat. In fact, it’s possible at this point Dominguez will never become an everyday player thanks to his struggles at the plate. To date, the youngster has posted a .240 average with a .318 OBP after 449 at-bats in AA during 2010. 

The only potential frontline arm in the system right now is Chad James, the Marlins’ 2009 first round pick. He has a nice array of pitches, which includes a mid 90’s heater, a sharp breaking curveball, a slider, and a change. However, the stuff hasn’t translated into instant success for James, but he’s posted a solid 9.0 K/9 in A ball, despite the unattractive 4.67 ERA. The Marlins system is always known for its excellent scouting, so expect another diamond in the rough to prop out within the next year.

New York Mets

Future Faces of the Franchise: David Wright, 3B—Jose Reyes, SS—Ike Davis, 1B

The MLB Roster: The Mets have a huge advantage over their NL East foes because they’re a big market team. This allows the Mets to spend more money bringing in talent and retaining talent.

Thus, though Reyes is a free agent after the 2011 season and Wright after the 2012, more likely than not, the organization will resign the two, ensuring they are lifetime Mets. Called up earlier this year, rookie Ike Davis has had some memorable moments in his young career, but he’s struggled to get on base while employing a .250 AVG and .326 OBP. 

The young left handed slugger has shown promise, as he’s belted 15 jacks over the fence and driven in 53. Ike has also made his affects felt in the field as he’s in the running for a gold glove despite 2010 being his first taste of the majors. On the pitching side, the Mets have Jonathon Niese heading forward. 

The lanky southpaw features a heater that rests in the high 80’s and lower 90’s while throwing a jaw dropping 12-6 curve. However, Niese projects more as a backend starter opposed to a reliable front end type. Josh Thole, who recently assumed the catching duties, remains the catcher of the future, but he’ll never be a true impact player. 

Nonetheless, close to a .300 hitter and .350 OBP from a lefty catcher will be more than welcomed for most organizations, though he provides virtually no power. Sadly, for Mets fan, the current MLB roster doesn’t provide much else.

Jason Bay signed a lengthy and pricy four year deal this past winter, but he’s been a huge disappointment. Johan Santana is locked up until 2013, but it appears his best days are behind and the Mets will regret the guaranteed $25.5 million he’s due the last year of his contract. 

Mike Pelfrey started the season out with a boom, but he’s erased all those memories, as I pointed out in my last article. At this point, despite the early season success, Pelfrey can’t be considered a rotation cog going forward given his inconsistencies. Bobby Parnell is the only young arm in the pen, and even though he’s able to reach the high 90’s, his lack of control and secondary pitches will hinder his ability to become a dependable arm late in the games for the Amazing’s in the future.

The Farm:  Top pitching prospect Jenrry Mejia has already tasted a cup of coffee in the majors before the organization made the wise and smart decision to send him down to stretch him out for an eventual starting rotation gig. The 20-year-old has a plus fastball that rests in the mid 90’s, a change up that sits in the mid 80’s, and a developing curveball. 

With a little more improvement of his command and a refinement of his secondary stuff, Mejia has the making of a front end starter. Top position prospect Wilmer Flores is a young kid (18) who can flat out hit. As of now, he projects as a power hitter who’ll hit for average and has drawn comparisons to Miguel Cabrera. He still needs to vastly improve on his pitch recognition and plate discipline, but that normally comes with age and maturity.

The once top ten prospect, Fernando Martinez, has fallen flat on his face. Due to durability issues and a weak start during his time up last season, Martinez has seen his stock plummet. To make matters worse, the once golden boy of the Mets farm has a slash line of .255/.322/.465—not numbers you’d expect from a league’s top prospect only two seasons ago. 

With the exception of those three, the Mets lack any potential impact players. Ruben Tejada, who played adequately in the majors when Luis Castillo was hurt, profiles as a defensive specialist who will consistently perform average at-best with the bat. Lastly, Kirk Nieuwenhuis figures to presume the center field duties when Beltran’s contract runs out next year. Nieuwenhuis will never be spectacular with the bat (current AA slash of .289/.337/.510), but the speedy youngster plays a terrific center field and covers a ton of range. 

Philadelphia Phillies

Future Faces of the Franchise: Ryan Howard, 1B—Chase Utely, 2B—Dominic Brown, OF—Roy Halladay, SP

The MLB Roster: The Phillies' current MLB roster is star studded and already features a couple of perennial all-stars. In addition, like the Mets, they have a huge advantage of being a big market team. Ryan Howard already inked his huge deal this past April, when he netted himself a 5 year, $125 million extension. 

Though the Phillies’ clearly overpaid for their slugging first basemen, Howard still provides the heart of the order with a top-tier homerun bat. Utley is locked up through the 2013 season and remains the best second basemen in the game. Utley has a career .389 wOBA, which is absurd considering the position and quality of the defense that he plays. 

Recently promoted Dominic Brown is a corner outfielder who possesses speed, power, and the ability to hit for a high average. He has the potential to be a 30-plus homerun player and a 20-plus base stealer. In every sense of the term, Brown is an athletic freak.

Right handed bat Jayson Werth holds the team together, but he looks to be on his way out with his contract expiring at the end of the season.

On the pitching side of things, Hamel's contract expires at the end of next season and the Phills don’t have another young arm. Roy Holliday is also locked up through the 2014 season, ensuring the Phighting Phills will have a dependable ace for the foreseeable future. The pen is a mess going forward, and the Phillies don’t have any locks to be on the team in three years from now.

The Farm: The Phills continue to trade away prospects for star players, such as Halladay, Lee, and as recently as Roy Oswalt, but they still employ a ton of talented players, especially at the lower levels. Jarred Cosart, who’s only 20 years old, has been great in A-ball this year, owning a 3.79 ERA, 9.7 K/9, and 2.0 BB/9. 

His repertoire includes a heater that can crack the high 90’s, a curve, and a changeup. Thus far in his young pro ball career, Cosart has shown he has the plus stuff to be considered a future one or two starter at the MLB level. 

Much was discussed in the Roy Oswalt trade talks, but Philadelphia eventually held on to first basemen and corner outfielder Jonathon Singleton. At the ripe age of 18, Singleton has emerged this season in A ball by posting a .305/.411/.502 slash line that includes 12 homeruns.

In addition, the Phills have a ton of young arms in the system such as Brody Colvin, Trevor May, and J.C. Ramirez. Phillippe Aumont was acquired when Cliff Lee was shipped off to Seattle this past winter, but he’s been nothing but a disappointment since moving to the east coast. In fact, Aumont started the season in AA, was then demoted to high A, and, once again, was recently promoted to AA. In his 49.2 innings since his return to Reading (the Phills’ AA affiliate), Aumont has an ugly 7.43 ERA to show.

Washington Nationals

Future Faces of the Franchise: Stephen Strasburg, SP – Ryan Zimmerman, 3B – Drew Storen, CL

The MLB Roster:  Despite still sitting in last place of the NL East, the Nationals have a bright future ahead of themselves. Franchise cornerstone and third basemen Ryan Zimmerman is under contract through the 2013 season, ensuring the Nationals have an excellent right handed bat to peg into their three-hole who also plays stellar defense. 

Rookie Ian Desmond has had his growing pains with his glove and bat, but he projects to be a solid shortstop for years to come. This year he’s hitting a pedestrian .260/.299/.399, but all those numbers should improve with more experience. The Nationals desire much else on the offensive side, though Josh Willingham is an extremely underrated player and should be sign to an extension.

The former Marlin has recorded a .392 OBP this year while posting a high .381 wOBA. When it comes to pitching, the Nationals promoted a player in June named Stephen Strasburg. The young phenom has an arsenal that features a heater that hits triple digits, a two-seamer with a downward sinking motion, a devastating changeup, and a curveball that drops in the matter of milliseconds. 

The rest of the rotation doesn’t appear to have any long term staples. However, the bullpen already includes the closer of the future in Drew Storen. The Stanford product drafted a year ago has already been shoved into the role with the recent departure of Matt Capps. Storen’s array includes a fastball that rests in the mid 90’s, a slider that usually sits in the mid 80’s, and then a low 80’s cutter to keep hitters off balance.

The Farm:  After the recent trade of Matt Capps, the Nationals landed themselves a serviceable MLB catcher in youngster Wilson Ramos. Though Ramos has been struggling this year, his bat still profiles well for the position and he’s very good defensively.

If Ramos can hold his own as an everyday catcher, this will allow the Nationals to move fellow top organization prospect Derrick Morris to first base. Norris has struggled to hit for average this season, but his plate discipline is unmatched evident by his .410 OBP while batting a pathetic .228. Ideally, Ramos becomes the everyday catcher, allowing Norris to shift to first base, since the bat is much more advanced than the glove at this stage. 

However, unless Norris starts hitting similar to his 2009 season (had a triple slash line of .286/.413/.513) the bat won’t play at the position, since first is usually reserved for power hitters.

Rehabbing in the minors is Jordan Zimmerman, a young pitcher whose season was lost last year after he underwent season ending Tommy John surgery. Since returning to the diamond, Zimmerman has been cruising through the minor league ladder and hasn’t allowed an earned run since being promoted to high A. 

In addition, his strikeout rates have been high and his walk rates have been low since returning from the injury. Look for him to be in the rotation at some point in September.  Lastly, the Nationals drafted Bryce Harper this past June. Expected to play right field in Washington, Harper is considered one of the best prospects of all time. At the young age of 17, Harper has already shown glimpses of his astronomical potential. He has plus power, draws walks, hits for average, and plays a great defense. 

The Rankings

Here's my personal power rankings of the competitive NL East looking 3-5 years from now.

1. Atlanta Braves

2. Philadelphia Phillies

3. Washington Nationals

4. New York Mets

5. Florida Marlins

What are your rankings?