Can Roger Federer Reach Tennis' Summit Once More?

Summer 2010.  Northern hemisphere.  The U.S. Open awaits on the horizon.

The sun rises on boiler days, searing your brain and arresting your stamina.  In the air is an aura of unease.  You suffer anxiety attacks, feeling strangely unsettled—not quite sure whether what you’re enduring is the result of an impending layoff, a hideous nightmare, or maybe heat stroke.

Finally, with the kind of bewildering clarity you felt at the end of Inception , the truth comes into focus.  You stare at it unwavering, waiting for the tiny wheel to stop spinning.

It hits you head on.  Roger Federer is ranked No. 3 in the world—no longer No. 1 or even 2. 

“Easy now,” you tell yourself.  “It had to happen sooner or later.”

You whisper…Roger Federer—World No 3. Difficult to wrap your mind around and even harder to accept. 

You seem to recall when your second-grade friends told you there was no Santa Claus or you got dropped by your boyfriend in high school right before the prom—after you had already picked out an expensive frock.
 
The lingering effect of this turn of events shrivels your soul until you finally awaken to the reality of this situation. 

How many times can we ask this man to return to the summit just to please our own sense of order?  How fair is it to accept nothing less than perfection from this champion who has given the tennis world so many close-to-perfect moments?

Recognizing the heart of this champion, his fans understand Federer’s desire to compete.  What Federer knows is that there is a limited resource at his disposal.  His body and its competitive life will not extend forever.  In fact, it probably will not stretch too much further—in terms of being at the very top of the men’s game. 

That said, it is also not time to accept inevitability. Now is the time to find a new edge, sharpen angles, and retool the huge reserve of weapons in your arsenal, extracting every last advantage. 

You hire a coach in a stroke of genius—accepting a new role helping to direct your next steps.

Surely, the coach will help Federer develop new inroads, extending his mastery for as long as possible––staving off the effects of negative press and self-doubt.
 
You accept the new reality. Rafael Nadal recently succeeded to the No. 1 ranking for the second time in his awe-inspiring career—both times succeeding Federer.  The first time occurred after Nadal had remained in Federer’s shadow from July 25, 2005 until August 18, 2008—spending over three years as No. 2. 

That’s a long time playing second banana to someone you seem to defeat regularly.

To shake the scepter loose, Rafa fought like a man possessed to overtake Federer, because he realized record books would never be kind to someone who was never ranked No. 1.  Others were beginning to nip at Nadal’s No. 2 heels at that point.
 
Early in 2008, Nadal continued to struggle on the hard courts.  Tennis pundits already touted Novak Djokovic as the new No. 2 man-in-the-making especially after his grand slam victory at the 2008 Australian Open.

Compounding this concern, Nadal’s camp feared that there might be problems ahead with the Majorcan’s physical well-being.  The 2008 season became a now-or-never campaign, especially when they realized King Federer suffered from the lingering effects of mononucleosis. 

While Federer struggled to regain his strength, Nadal scrambled, scorching the ground during the clay season which culminated with humbling Federer at the French Open.
 
Nadal carried his blistering blitzkrieg campaign onto the grass, finally crushing Federer at his beloved Wimbledon. The 2008 Wimbledon victory represented the ultimate triumph for Nadal on a surface most said he would never master. 
 
Nadal succeeded to the No. 1 spot just before the 2008 U.S. Open.  But Nadal, in capturing the well-earned elusive top spot, played a great deal on hard courts—a surface that hurts him—especially his knees.
 
Nadal had been unrelenting, unbeaten except for his Cincinnati loss against Djokovic and his U.S.  Open semifinal loss to Murray.  He’d captured the title in Toronto and also won the Gold Medal at the 2008 Beijing Olympics for men’s singles.
 
Federer, on the other hand, staggered by his loss in Beijing to Blake in men’s singles, came back to win the Olympic Gold medal in doubles with his partner and fellow countryman Stanislav Wawrinka. The win re-energized him.
 
Filled with confidence and against all odds, Federer won his fifth consecutive U.S. Open Championship in September 2008, silencing his varied and vocal critics.  He captured his 13th Grand Slam victory—his only slam victory in 2008.  He was only one slam behind Pete Sampras at this point.
 
Rafa, however, came back strong to capture his first hard-court slam, defeating Federer in five sets at the 2009 Australian Open.  Rightfully so, the victory filled the Majorcan with confidence and pride. 

2009 could add to Nadal’s growing legacy.  He held titles at each slam locale except in New York.  There was talk of capturing a calendar year slam, if he could capture New York.

His knees, however, began to weaken.  After playing nonstop on clay, Nadal fell to Robin Soderling in the fourth round of the French Open, ending Rafa’s unbeaten streak at Stade Roland Garros. 

Federer went on to win the French Open, the last of the grand slam championships to elude him. 

Rafa, unable to compete, withdrew from Wimbledon, sacrificing the championship and the No. 1 ranking to Federer on July 5, 2009.  Nadal had been ranked in the top spot 46 consecutive weeks. 

Federer resumed the No. 1 mantle on July 6, 2009 and held it until June 6, 2010 for an additional 48 weeks.  Totally, Federer has held the No. 1 ranking 285 weeks, one week short of Pete Sampras’ record of 286 weeks in total.  So close and yet so far for Federer.

Federer began 2010 by winning the Australian Open.  He seemed unbeatable at that point—once again.

Nadal, however, was not finished by a long stretch.  He returned to form once again during the 2010 clay season where he dominated emphatically as Federer faded in the quarterfinals of the French Open. 

After winning the Championship at Stade Roland Garros, Nadal seized back the No. 1 ranking on June 7, 2010. 

To add an exclamation point to his return, Nadal went on to take the Wimbledon crown away from Federer who lost in quarterfinals to Tomas Berdych.

For the press it appears that Federer, once again, is finished.  Article after article points that out in great detail, citing Nadal’s dominance, just as they did in 2008.  The more things change, the more they stay the same, as the saying goes. 

To date, Nadal has held the No. 1 ranking for 55 weeks and he will no doubt hold the ranking without question for the next year, until the French Open and Wimbledon come again in 2011. 

Federer only needs another week at No. 1 to equal Pete Sampras’ record at 286 weeks and two weeks to surpass it.  Whether he will be able to accomplish that depends on his new association with Paul Annacone, with Rafa’s knees and with his own will to succeed to the top once again.

The future has not been written.  We are powerless to say what will happen.  But know this.  Federer will continue to play as long as he can compete at the top level.  If he can compete, that means he can win. 

Winning, after all, is what the game is all about.  And since 2004, no one has had more success on tour than Roger Federer.  The question remains—can he climb to the top of the mountain one more time?