Enjoy the NFL in 2010; It May Not Be Here in 2011

Finally August is here, which means another NFL season is upon us. But really we have nearly six weeks to go before it counts for real, and there are so many issues lingering in the air.

The biggest issue is the CBA and will the NFL actually shut down its multi-billion dollar industry. My initial guess sitting here on August 4th is that this could be worse than the 1982 strike when the NFL shut down and lost seven games mid-way through the season.

Jets fans remember that season; that was the famous year when they went all the way to the AFC Championship game but lost to the Dolphins at the Orange Bowl 14-0 in the mud when Richard Todd threw five interceptions.

It’s memorable because the Jets won two road playoff games in a row and managed to get all the way to a championship game.

Sounds a lot like the 2009 year doesn’t it?

So the question is now, why would the league actually shut down? My feeling is that there are just too many issues on the table and unless progress is made during this season I’m not sure there will be enough time to resolve these issues by next August.

You’re asking “Why August? Doesn’t it have to get done by March?” No it doesn’t. There will be a normal offseason with a free agency signing period and also the NFL draft. Speaking of the draft, let’s start there as one of the issues.

A rookie cap or salary structure is obviously needed now. Someone needs to explain to me why Sam Bradford who has as many NFL snaps as me is getting $50 million guaranteed to him and yet three-time Super Bowl winner Tom Brady is getting a measly 6.5 million for this year.

I understand 6.5 million is nothing to sneeze at, but the system clearly needs fixing.

Another example of the system needing fixing: Jets outstanding defensive back Darrelle Revis is scheduled to make $1 million this year. Five defensive backs on the New York Jets will make more than Revis this year and that includes 1st round draft choice Kyle Wilson.

Speaking of Revis, Jets fans can blame Al Davis for this mess. He gave corner Nnamdi Asomugha a 45.3 million dollar contract for three years in 2009. So Davis has set the market for an outrageous amount for a cornerback. Jets fans can also blame Rex Ryan.

Why? Because all of last year he kept saying how Revis was the best in the league. I agree with him; not to mention that without Revis Ryan can’t blitz and use his scheme without compromising it. Ryan needs his shutdown corner, period.

Another sticking issue here is the proposed 18 game schedule and also the pension for retired players. They do work hand in hand. Let’s look at both separately and then tie them together:

1. 18 game season sounds nice, but is it possible that it’s too much of a good thing? If you were to ask most players, they don’t want an 18 game schedule. Too much wear and tear on the body.

Sure the NFL is going to eliminate two pre-season games, but really the full time starters don’t see much action in those games. So with only two preseason games to get ready for the season, I’m sure we’ll see more full time starters in the preseason, and not to mention the additional two games at the end of the season.

So that’s nearly 19 games (assuming they play a half in the two preseason games) a year they will be playing. Over a three year period that comes out to 57 games that the players bodies have had to endure.

2.The Retired players want a better pension plan and help with medical care, and with the pounding they took as players who can blame them? Granted it’s all part of the job, but if you’re a long snapper for 10 years and didn’t make $10 million , is the NFL going to help him take care of his aching neck after 10 years of service?

How does this all tie in together? Simply put if the NFL decides to go to this schedule they will accelerate a player’s career by about three years if you would have been a 10 year veteran. Remember the long snapper who played 10 years?

Not even factoring in playoff games, that’s 160 games. Under this new scheduling you’re tacking on nearly an additional 1 and a half years’ worth of games inside of that 10 years.

Bigger need for medical care after the player retires will be a necessity.

Look at it from a historical standpoint: No team in the Super Bowl era has won three Super Bowls in a row. Mainly because by the time the two time Super Bowl winning team gets to the end of the run, they are simply beat up and tired.

After going to the Super Bowl twice, not including the preseason, the players have played 54 games (assuming they received a bye in both of the playoff years) when the playoffs start for the third Super Bowl run. Need proof? Let’s look at the list:

1. ’66-’67 Packers: By the end of the ’67 season the Packers were gassed. They had an entirely different offensive backfield because Lombardi let Jim Taylor and Paul Hornung go to the Saints in the expansion draft.

By the time the ’67 championship game (the ice bowl) came around, Bart Starr was driving down the field with Chuck Muncie and Donny Anderson. Lombardi willed them to win that Super Bowl. Lombardi retired following the Super Bowl and the Packers never had a chance to 3peat.

2.’72-’73 Dolphins: Another team that by the time they reached the playoffs went in hobbling. This team was beat up on the defensive side of the ball as Jake Scott was out, and Manny Fernandez was playing with one arm.

3.’74-’75 Steelers: The ’76 Steelers might have been the single greatest defense in NFL history. Another story for another time, but by the time the Steelers reached the AFC Championship game to play Oakland, The Steelers had lost both Rocky Bleir and Franco Harris to injury and were manhandled.

4. ’78-’79 Steelers: Pittsburgh with yet another chance to three-peat, but the team was just simply too old. Between ’72-’79 the team appeared in seven AFC championship games with virtually the same roster (a mistake that Knoll admitted me had made. Holding onto his star players past their prime). By 1980 the Steel Curtain had slowed, and Bradshaw then started to develop elbow problems.

Franco Harris would finish his career in Seattle not too long afterwards.

5. ’88-’89 49ers: Looking so dominant in the ’89 playoffs, outscoring their playoff opponents 126-26 the 49ers were the head and shoulders pick by most to win a 3rd Super Bowl. But during the team’s 10-0 start in 1990 they lost Running Back Roger Craig to a knee injury and Craig was never the same afterwards.

The Offensive line had lost a few players to free agency in the offseason and the offensive line had to be shuffled. A beat up running back and virtually no depth at the position killed the 49ers chances to win a 3rd straight Super Bowl. They lost in the NFC Championship game because the Giants played nickel defense and the 49ers were never able to retaliate with a hurt running game.

6.  ’92-’93 Cowboys: Just like the 49ers before them, the Cowboys entered the NFC Championship game in ’94 hurt at the Running Back position. The Cowboys looked sluggish to start and were down 21-0 before anyone sat down at Candlestick Park.

7. ’97-’98 Broncos: John Elway retired after the ’98 season, which is really the reason why this team didn’t even make the playoffs in ’99. However, Terrell Davis blew out his knee vs. the Jets and that ended his career and any chance the Broncos had of making a 3rd Super Bowl run.

8. ’03-’04 Patriots: An old Corey Dillon could only muster up 733 yards in 12 games (he started only 10) and while Brady did throw for over 4,100 yards the Patriots fought to a 10-6 record and lost in the opening round on the road to Denver.

So what is the point? When you are attempting to win three straight Super Bowls, you have played in more games than anyone else. The body only holds up at certain positions for so long before breaking down. What’s the league going to be like when it is in the third year of an 18 game schedule and all of the teams are beat up? Odds are you are going to see teams holding out starters for more games at the end of the year; and that’s already a problem with 16 weeks.

Enjoy the NFL this year, because you may not see a snap for the 2011 season until 2012.