U.S. vs. Algeria FIFA World Cup 2010: Preview, Predictions, and Tactics

As is SOP with the World Cup, the next match is the biggest, and so it is with the United States as they prepare to face Algeria on Wednesday.

With a win, the US will advance to the knockout stages, perhaps as the winner should certain results go the right way. A draw may get the job done, but it would take an England loss or low-scoring draw to ensure advancement if the Yanks and Desert Foxes play even.

For Slovenia, US coach Bob Bradley broke conventional wisdom, substituting the talented yet inexperienced Jose Francisco Torres on for the more experienced Ricardo Clark in order to boost the US offense. The maneuver failed, and it took an inspired second-half effort from Landon Donovan, Michael Bradley, and the rest of the US to squeak out a draw vs. the Slovenians.

While Torres wasn’t the adjustment we hoped him to be, Maurice Edu came on and covered for Michael Bradley well, and Clint Dempsey’s move to the top really opened up the US offense.

This game will also call for tactical adjustments particular to both the result the US need and the style of play Algeria will set out.

Let’s take a look at both sides, starting with the Desert Foxes, and then take a look at predictions.

Algeria—Big in the Back, Quick in the Front

Coming off of one of their greatest World Cup results ever, the Algerians will be full of confidence and looking to advance to the knockout stages with a win and some help in the England-Slovenia game.

A draw won’t do for the Algerians—they must go for the win, or they will be sent back to the North Africa for the remainder of the Cup.

I’m not sure what changes the Algerians will make. Their 3-4-2-1 effectively neutralized the English attack, and it is their most comfortable formation.

However, they have to score against the US, so they could make some changes to put more offensive options on the pitch—perhaps subbing off Antar Yahia in favor of Rafik Djebbour or another attacker. But Algerian coach Rabah Saadane seems intent on sticking with the side from the England draw.

"About the make up of the team, we have two options," he said. "The first one, which is the most plausible, is that I will use the team that gave a good performance [against England]. The second is to perhaps make a change, which would be among the forwards."

The reason 3-4-2-1 works for Algeria is the ease from which the side can transition from attack to defense. Going forward, the shape can look like a 3-4-3, and the defense can drop into a 5-4-1.

The Algerians dominated a great deal of possession against the English thanks to their packed midfield, and if they can recreate that against the US, they could get the goal they need. Recall also how the US have a knack recently of conceding early. An early goal could allow Algeria to drop their wingbacks deep and take the threats of Donovan and Dempsey on the wing out of the equation.

Their greatest weakness plays into my strategy, in that they lack a true striker. Karim Matmour played up top as the lone striker against England, but he is a natural midfielder and dropped into the midfield so much against England that Algeria were often playing a striker-less 5-5-0 formation.

This allows them to dictate possession and put a lot of skill and speed on the field, but none of their players seem able to find a goal or get on the end of a cross.

Still, of all the sides in the group, Algeria might match up best with the US, especially the 11 Bob likes to set out in the empty bucket.

Key Players for Algeria

Karim Ziana

A winger for Wolfsburg, his club side, Ziani offers the most creativity on the ball of any of the Algerians. He did little against England, but he could give the US trouble from the left wing, moving centrally, almost as Dempsey and Donovan do for the US themselves.

Madjid Bougherra

the Rangers centerback has been the best Algerian player in the Cup. He had no trouble dealing with Heskey or Rooney, and he lacks nothing in terms of pace or strength.

United States—Edu’s Time to Shine, Sub Spector for Gooch

Let’s be straight—the US are very fortunate to still be in a position to advance from this group.

The first-half performance against Slovenia was pretty dreadful, but a good second half earned the Yanks a draw, and if not for a bad call, the US would be on top of Group C at this point.

All that to say this: The Algeria game is the definition of a must-win game. An exit before the Round of 16 at this point would be tragic for US soccer, whereas advancing from—or even, dare I say it, winning—this group could be the spark that ignites soccer fury among the American public.

So how does Bob Bradley play this one?

Well, I only foresee the need for a couple of changes. First, Torres will find his way back to the bench, opening a hole in central midfield.

I’ve talked previous about the central midfield for this team, and I’ve wanted to see Landon Donovan in an advanced central role, but not this game.

The call is simple here: Maurice Edu. His entry to the game Friday was crucial not because of his outstanding play, although he was solid. Rather, he frees up Michael Bradley to get forward, as Ricardo Clark does, but offers more passing and aerial prowess than Clark.

With Edu beside Bradley, Donovan and Dempsey can interchange on the wings as per usual. This will keep the Algerian wingbacks—arguably the most threatening weapons in the Desert Fox arsenal—at bay, freeing up a ton of room for Jozy, Bradley, and the rest to make threatening central runs.

Up top, with Robbie Findley suspended, Edson Buddle should get the nod. His physical presence can bang with the big Algerian central defensive pairing and get on the end of crosses. Findley’s speed would actually be vital in this game, so that’s why Herculez Gomez should come on for Buddle or Altidore around the 70 minute mark.

The biggest change I hope to see, however unlikely it may be, is at the back. Jay DeMerit has been solid, and Steve Cherundolo has been our best defender by far, but Carlos Bocanegra has been exposed for a lack of pace on the outside, and Oguchi Onyewu has been the biggest weakness in the US lineup.

I don’t know if it’s his knee or just a lack of playing time, but Gooch is in bad form and could have prevented all three conceded goals so far with better positioning or instincts.

My bold call: sit him.

While Algeria is big in the back, their size up front is nothing to worry about, so sitting our biggest defender won’t hurt us, especially when Algeria drop into the 5-5-0.

Coming in for Gooch should be Jonathan Spector, who moves to left back, pushing Bocanegra to his more natural central role.

Here’s my justification. The best way to attack a three-man defense is to get your fullbacks forward. Ashley Cole wasn’t man of the match against Algeria for no reason—his forays forward were the only bright spot for England, and three-man defenses struggle to cover attacking fullbacks.

Spector offers an attacking presence on the outside that Bocanegra can’t give, and his service on crosses is as good as any other American. His substitution makes sense strategically and personnel-wise, getting our weakest defender off and opening a new avenue of attack.

Do I expect Bob to make this call? No, but the possibility is there, and tactically it makes a lot of sense.

My 11 would look something like this:

However, Bob's 11 will probably look more like this:

Bob tends to stick with what's got him there, and I don't blame him. Benny Feilhaber is a reliable player—if somewhat inconsistent—while Clark has been his go-to guy beside his son for a while.

While I've encouraged the use of Stuart Holden and I'm sad he hasn't gotten enough time to shine, I don't think this is a game for him, at least not from the start. Perhaps he can find a place in the game if Buddle struggles up top and Dempsey moves up to the forward spot, but I see this one playing out as a physical game—not exactly Stu's cup of soup.

Key Players for the US

Landon Donovan

As Landon goes, so go the US. His goal against Slovenia was a powerful statement, but he’ll have to finish what he started by putting in another man of the match caliber performance in the biggest game in recent US history.

Maurice Edu/Ricardo Clark

Playing beside Michael Bradley isn’t easy, because he’s such a dynamic midfielder going box-to-box that it’s hard to know when to cover for him and when to push forward. Edu, of all the central midfield options, seems to complement that dynamism best without sacrificing much on either side of the pitch, but Ricardo Clark is experienced in big games. If either can negate the quick countering of the Algerians and complete enough passes to maintain American possession, the US shouldn’t have any trouble getting the points needed to advance.

Michael Bradley

Bradley has emerged as not only a star for the US, but as a potential mover in the post-Cup transfer window. His passing has been decent with room for improvement (68 percent completion rate), but he has been cool, calm, and collected, covering 23.8 kilometers (fifth-highest distance of any player in the Cup), dictating the US offense, and making deadly runs behind the defense. While Landon Donovan will carry the scoring burden, Michael Bradley will be key that determines how effective (or ineffective) the US attack will be against Algeria.

Predictions

USA – 2 Algeria – 1

Jozy opens his World Cup account on the end of a Landon Donovan cross, but the Algerians even it up just before half.

A scrappy second half never opens up, but a Landon Donovan corner finds the head of Carlos Bocanegra around the 75-minute mark, and the US hold on to win the group after England defeats Slovenia 1-0.