Will Billy Butler Ever Develop into an Elite Fantasy Baseball 1B?

We have all been waiting for Billy Butler to take the next step forward.  A potentially elite first base option, he has yet to develop power to pit him with the best in the league.

Average?  Not a problem in the slightest, currently sitting with a .335 average (through Sunday).  Yes, it comes courtesy of a .353 BABIP, but there’s a chance that he can maintain that type of level.  He hardly strikes out (11.4 percent in ‘10) and posted a .332 mark in 2009. 

While the run production isn’t quite up to snuff with the top first baseman, that is more a function of the lineup he plays in.  If you slot him with one of the higher-powered offenses in the league there is little doubt in my mind that he would have more than 35 RBI and 31 R.

First, just look at the OBP of the players hitting atop the lineup:

• Scott Podsednik—.333
• Jason Kendall—.328

Theey're not giving him many opportunities, are they?

What about the guys waiting to drive him in once he’s on base (he has a .388 OBP)?  Yes, Jose Guillen was hot early, but he has fallen off since.  After that you don’t have guys who particularly scare opponents in Alberto Callaspo (he has been pretty good) and Mike Aviles. 

Given his average you would expect better results in the counting stats and once the Royals improve the pieces around him you should see it.

The power, however, is a bit puzzling.

Part of the belief that he will hit more home runs is that some of his doubles will sooner or later start to turn into home runs.  Last year he hit 51 doubles, second in the league to Brian Roberts (56).  This year he is again among the leaders with 19 (Jayson Werth leads with 24).

The fly ball percentage just hasn’t increased.  Last season he was at 34.6 percent and thus far this year he is at 33.0 percent.  Also declining has been his HR/FB, going from 11.9 percent to 8.2 percent.

Is that to say that he won’t respond?  That he won’t be able to hit for more power in 2010 or in the future? 

Of course not.  He showed more power in the second half last season (13 HR after the All Star Break), so for this season I wouldn’t write him off.  It’s possible that he’s one of those players that gets hotter and hotter as the season progresses (six HR in September in ‘09).

As for beyond, I still have to believe that the power will develop.  We know he can hit, and we know he can hit for extra bases.  Sooner or later, those doubles will start turning into home runs.  Is he going to be a 40 HR hitter?  Probably not, but I still believe that he will hit over 30 in a season, and not in the distant future.

What do you think?  Will Butler ever hit for power?  What do you think his maximum could be for a year?

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