World Cup 2010 Predictions: Who Will Leave South Africa As Champions?

So here we are.   Billions of people around the world, (and a good 20-30 million Americans) have waited four years for this moment.  The kick off to the World Cup!

The last we saw of this great event, French superstars were headbutting Italians over family insults, with the Azurres eventually winning in a shoot out.  Hundreds of qualification games throughout the world have been played since then, and we stand just hours away from the tournament which everyone of course knows is in South Africa, making this a truly historic tournament indeed.

So the big question is, who is going to win the Cup?  With a new found sense of parity, one could argue there are more potential winners in this group of 32 teams than ever before.  All seven previous champions of the competition Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay (everyone seems to forget them) Italy, England, Germany, and France are in this tournament.  You also have a host of new contenders including Portugal, the Netherlands, Chile, the Ivory Coast and even Greece who won the European Championship in 2004.

And then there is Spain.   The European power who is always considered a favorite, yet always seems to flounder.  Spain has gone on a tremendous run, losing only once in over 40 matches, that loss coming to the U.S. in lats year's Confederations Cup.  Will this finally be the year they break through?

As I make my predictions, I ask you to try and recall the last two World Cups that weren't on European soil, the 1994 World Cup in America in 2002 in Japan/South Korea.  There are some tendencies I expect to see repeated.  With that said, let's see how this tournament might play out!

*Teams are in order of predicted finish*

Group A: 

Mexico

Uruguay

France

South Africa

The obvious selection here would be France to win the group but not so fast.  Uruguay is a subtly good team, Mexico is on fire and no team that has hosted a World Cup has failed to reach the 2nd round.   Add to that, the French barely made the World Cup and do not seem to be playing at top form.   In the end, I believe the Mexicans will continue to roll, and Uruguay will sneak in at 2nd.

Group B:

Nigeria

Argentina

Greece

South Korea

I was extremely tempted to leave Argentina out of first round qualification.  I don't believe in manager Diego Maradona and their defense is weak.  However the Greeks have no history of World Cup success and South Korea appears to be a shell of themselves from their 2002 form.  

But Nigeria?  A lot tells me they shouldn't do well.  But they are on African soil, and when they're usually counted out, they seem to do well.  With an upset 2-1 win over Argentina in group play, the Super Eagles move on to the knockout stage as Group B winners.

Group C:

England

United States

Algeria

Slovenia

I'm honestly scared to predict the U.S to succeed.  They have a horrible track record as favorites.  But combined with a favorable draw, and the fact the U.S. seems to do much better when not playing in Europe, I think they move on.   Algeria scares me. The team could lose 6-0 or win 4-1.  They are a total ying and yang squad that could go on a run.  Just ask the Egyptian squad which still is stunned they lost to Algeria in qualifying.  

As for this "epic" encounter the media is trying to hype between the U.S. and England?  I honestly would not be shocked with a 0-0 draw, with a truce of sorts from both teams, knowing that one point from this match would go a LONG way towards advancing. 

Group D

Australia

Germany

Serbia

Ghana

I feel really bad for Ghana.  If their superstar Michael Essein had been healthy, I felt this team could go on a real run in this tournament.  Without him, this team won't win I feel with such an even group.  So why do I have Australia winning this group?   I feel Germany is going to draw with Serbia and Australia.   But I believe the Australians, with their physical play will sneak pass a very very game Serbian squad, draw with Germany and take out Ghana. 

The Australians are one of my dark horses here.  Remember as I told you to recall the '94 and '02 tourneys.   We'll talk about this more later.

Group E

Netherlands

Cameroon

Denmark

Japan

The key game in this group is Cameroon and Denmark.   Japan doesn't appear experienced enough to succeed here and the Netherlands, while I don't believe in long term success should advance out of this group.  I believe Cameroon, with its home continent advantage will edge out the Danes.

Group F

Paraguay

Italy

Slovakia

New Zealand

The experiment of having an Asian Island nation automatically qualify will prove to be a disaster as they lose...badly in all three games.  The big upset to many eyes here would be Italy finishing 2nd here, who I'm tempted to not even have them advance. The team is old yet inexperienced in a lot of parts and no player is standing out.  Paraguay finished in 2nd place in South American qualifying and is playing very solid soccer.   Hello darkhorse.

Group G

Brazil

Ivory Coast

Portugal

North Korea

Congrats to North Korea going to the World Cup, but don't let the door hit you on the way out.  Despite the injury to Ivorian superstar Drogba, I believe the squad can STILL beat Portugal, who I feel has much less depth than their 4th place run in 2006.  Brazil is once again ranked first and primed for another deep run.

Group H

Spain

Chile

Honduras

Switzerland

The Swiss didn't give up a single goal in 2006, but lost in a 0-0 shootout in the first knockout round.   With three high powered offenses, I don't see their defense holding.  Honduras if they didn't get stuck with these two teams has the talent to advance.  But Spain and Chile are just too fast, too offensive and in the end too good.

And now on to the knockout rounds.  With all the surprises, you'll love some of these round of 16 match-ups.

A1 Mexico vs. B2 Argentina:   Like I said, I don't believe in Diego Maradona as Argentina manager.  And I really do like how the Mexicans are playing right now.  Given these two facts, I like the Mexicans in an upset.

C1 England vs. D2 Germany:  What a match-up!  I really like the English in this match-up as I feel the German squad talent has peaked.  Despite the loss of England's captain Rio Ferdinand, they have a ton of players all reaching the peak of their careers.  The English win in close fashion.

E1 Netherlands vs. F2 Italy:  So we have a team that consistently underachieves in the Dutch vs. an over the hill crop in Italy.  Who wins out?  Despite their tendencies to argue with each other on and off the field, the Dutch hold it together to move on.

G1 Brazil vs. H2 Chile:  A huge epic South American battle. This to me has the potential to be one of the tournament's best matches!  I love the Chileans and if they somehow win their group look out.  But Brazil is just too good here.

B1 Nigeria vs. A2 Uruguay:  The run of the Super Eagles continues as Nigeria will win a close victory over a Uruguay squad who most don't know is actually ranked one of the 15 best teams in the world.   Can Nigeria continue it's dramatic run?

D1 Australia vs. C2 United States:  So who would see THIS match-up occurring?  Talk about being rewarded for finishing 2nd in Group C right?  Wrong.  A rematch of a June friendly that saw the U.S. win 3-1 doesn't go as smoothly as the Australians, who were tragically eliminated in this stage in 2006 vs. Italy by poor officiating, exorcises their demons and moves on.

F1 Paraguay vs. E2 Cameroon:  Can Cameroon join Nigeria as another African nation in the quarterfinals?  No.  Paraguay is a very solid squad, and Cameroon won't be able to keep up with them.

H1 Spain vs. G2 Ivory Coast:  The dreadful draw of the Ivorians continues as they have to go up against the Spanish.  If Drogba were 100% healthy, I could see the Ivory Coast shocking the world.  But sadly, even if he does play with his injured arm he won't be up to snuff.  The Spanish win 4-2.

*Food for thought* If Brazil or Spain struggle in their group and finish 2nd, while the other finishes first, there is a CHANCE of an epic clash between the two nations in just the Round of 16!

Quarterfinals

A1 Mexico vs. C1 England

The question is, can Mexico keep up their run.  For such a talented soccer nation you would think advancing to the Semis would not be uncommon but for them it is.  And sadly the team will still not see them as the English prove to just be too strong and get the victory.

E1 Netherlands vs. G1 Brazil:  This is another TOUGH match for Brazil against a Dutch team which has the talent to go all the way.  But Brazil is on a mission after their disappointment in 2006 and they win a game which could go into overtime.

B1 Nigeria vs. D1 Australia:  So which upset team will find themselves in the semi-finals.   No African team has ever made it to the Semi finals, and I just don't feel it will happen here either.  Nigeria will run out of a steam against the physical style of Australia and the soccer-roos will see themselves playing in their first ever semi final.

F1 Paraguay vs. H1 Spain:  I could see the Spanish being tripped up here, I really could.  But I feel this team is different here, scoring after the 80th minute and winning 3-2.

Semi-Finals

England vs. Brazil:  The best run of England in decades comes to an end here against Brazil, who will again be returning to the finals.  The Brazilians are too strong here and will win 3-1.

Spain vs. Australia:  The power against the Aussie darlings.   Sadly, this is not a good matchup for Australia in my eyes as they won't be able to keep up with the speed of Spain.   Spain wins 4-0 and rolls onto the Finals.

3rd Place: 

England vs. Australia:  The Aussies get the upset over England, who are still so upset over their loss they don't even show up to this game.

CHAMPIONSHIP:

Brazil vs. Spain.  This game may seem like a very boring selection but keep in mind, the Spanish have never even finished THIRD in a World Cup before, so this is unknown territory for them.   Brazil on the other hand; I don't think anyone would be shocked to see them here.  And no one will be shocked when they win 3-1.

So there you have it:

1) Brazil, 2) Spain 3) Australia.

*TRENDS*  The two trends you can see from the '94 and '02 World Cups are this.

1)  Upsets happen:  For some reason, the past few tournaments played outside of Europe has had a lot of soccer unknowns go far.  In 1994 you saw Sweden and Bulgaria reach the Semi Finals, while in 2002 you had Turkey and South Korea get to that point as well.  While I don't believe you will have TWO teams get that far, I feel Australia is that upset minded team to make a run.

2)  Brazil wins:  Brazil has not only won the past two World Cups that were not held in Europe, but four of the last six!  And the one time they didn't win, they finished 3rd in 1978 when it was played in Argentina.  This squad simply crushes its competition outside of Europe.

So there you have it. While most selections are sure to go bad, I would tell you to keep an eye on these teams:  Australia, Paraguay, Chile, Nigeria and Uruguay.  I feel one or two of these five teams could make really deep runs.