MLB Fantasy Baseball Sell High Candidates: Top 10 BABIP (Hitter's Edition)

Eric Stashin

Jun 8, 2010

Selling high is something all fantasy owners want to do, though it is not always easy. Just looking at a BABIP in a vacuum may not tell the whole story, so let’s look at the players with the 10 best BABIPs through Saturday and determine if they should be sold or not.

1. Austin Jackson—Detroit Tigers—.444

He continues to play well over his head. Yes, he has tremendous speed and should be able to maintain a higher BABIP, but this is ridiculous. He continues to strikeout at a level more suitable for power hitters (27.2%) and sooner or later something is going to have to give. I wouldn’t expect him to be able to maintain his current .326 average for much longer, so selling high on him is in your best interest if you haven’t already done so. I know, we’ve heard this before, right? Still, how can you possibly expect this to continue for much longer?

2. Justin Morneau—Minnesota Twins—.417

He’s one of the best hitters in the game, though he’s often overshadowed by Joe Mauer in the Twins lineup. Yeah, the .372 average is a bit extreme, but the counting stat numbers are very much for real. If someone is willing to give up a premium player for him then sure, I’d be listening. Otherwise, why not hold onto him and continue to reap the benefits.

3. Austin Kearns—Cleveland Indians—.413

Could his 2010 resurgence be for real?

Not with this type of BABIP. He’s striking out a ton (32.2%), which could regress in time, which will help things, but not enough. He’s not hitting for elite power (4 HR over 158 AB) and plays in a terrible offense that doesn’t offer many opportunities for runs or RBI. Yeah, if someone is looking into him I’d consider selling.

4. Ichiro Suzuki—Seattle Mariners—.395

This is nothing new for Ichiro, who has a career BABIP of .359 and has posted years of .399, .389 and .384 in the past. His runs may not be what they once were, but the speed is clearly back (he has 17 SB already after only 26 last season). You either love him or hate him for fantasy purposes, but there’s nothing here to change that. If you are one who loves him, don’t feel the need to cut bait.

5t. David Freese—St. Louis Cardinals—.394

Interesting that Freese finds himself up on this list. He’s been tremendous this season, but without elite speed it would appear that his .316 average is going to be impossible for him to maintain. There’s a chance that the power increases, which helps to offset his decreased luck, but if you don’t believe that’s going to happen, now is clearly the time to sell.

5t. Colby Rasmus—St. Louis Cardinals—.394

How can he only be hitting .291 with this much luck?

The answer is simple, a 35.2% strikeout rate. That’s just not Rasmus, who posted a 20.0% mark last season over 520 AB. Even when his luck regress, he should be able to maintain his current average thanks to his improvement in the strikeout rate. Of course, there are other numbers that could regress (his HR/FB is at 18.4%), so we’ll have to take a closer look at him in the coming days.

7. Jason Bay—New York Mets—.382

The answer on Bay’s potential value moving forward comes down to one simple question: Do you believe the power will come around?

If you do, there’s absolutely nothing to worry about because even when his luck falls, he will be able to maintain the average. With four 30+ HR years in the past five, I have to believe that it will come, sooner or later. That means I’m a believer.

8. Elvis Andrus—Texas Rangers—.380

He has the speed to maintain an elite BABIP, so I’m not about to suggest that he’s in line for a huge regression. He has the potential to be an elite SS moving forward, with his speed and run potential (39 runs scored). Unless someone overwhelms me, I’m not about to sell him.

9. Ben Zobrist—Tampa Bay Rays—.374

The power hasn’t come around, which means that he should be able to maintain a near .300 season even when the luck abandons him. There’s just no way I’d trade him at this point, because even with the numbers he’s posted thus far, the best is yet to come.

10. Nick Swisher—New York Yankees—.371

He’s only got value in the deepest of formats, and this type of number should scare you off. He’s notoriously someone who hits for a low average, so sooner or later you have to think the bottom is going to fall off. Sell him now if you can.

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