The Tipping Point In Federer's Dominance Of Tennis

I have always been very skeptical about the tennis mainstream media being always so precocious to announce the decline and demise of the stars of the game. Consequently, I never before thought Federer was on a slow decline; not during his early 2007 slump, or his slightly subpar 2008 due to mono and his maturing rivals, or even in early 2009, when he was afflicted by a bad back and an understandable small loss in confidence. 

There was no clear sign of Roger permanently slowing down, and no compelling reason to believe he would do so. His youth and grave-injury-free body were still there, the Majors' semifinals streak alive and decent showings at most M1000 customary; the big difference in ranking points and mental edge with players except Nadal, and other characteristics that made him co-dominant of the game with a healthy Rafa.

However, that pattern has been recently broken. One might argue that things have not changed that much for Roger, but as of late, I see that a tipping point has been reached. Before, small decrements in his play and/or increments in his rivals' did not accumulate enough to induce a shift in his tendency to dominate. Now, each day it becomes harder to claim the opposite. I believe this is why Federer  has experienced his worst first half of a year since his dominance started, and will not bounce back.

A big reason that supports this idea has to do with a longer lasting and more pronouncedly diminished confidence, which in his matches has been reflected in a very particular manner. If you notice, for reasons we can only speculate on, Federer has lost significantly his ability to be a great frontrunner. Before, when he won the first set it was almost impossible to beat him: he gave no chances. Now, many times he starts playing well but then he gives more than a few opportunities for the other player creep in and gain confidence. This pattern started in 2009 but now is even more evident, and it has been going on for long enough to be called a temporary slump.

To be fair, the shift in Federer's dominance should not only be attributed to a small decline in his mental strength and play, but also to an improvement within his competition. The playing field is increasingly more leveled and the overall tennis quality has improved. Not only Soderling and Verdasco (strong since 2009), but Berdych, Gulbis, Melzer, Almagro, Baghdatis, (let's not mention other veterans like Ljubicic, JC Ferrero, David Ferrer, and Lleyton Hewitt, who have made a come back but don't seem to have the goods anymore to perform well consistently at the big stage) have taken this 2010 with more commitment and that has showed in their recent results.

These and other guys are playing better and also sense some vulnerability in Federer, so they do not fear him as much anymore. They either have beaten him soundly or come very close to do it, unlike in the past 5 years. And if Murray and Djokovic wake up from their own mental struggles, the competition would be too strong for the Swiss to overcome as he used to do. 

Federer knows this, and that is one reason why I do not buy the argument that he does not care much about losing to player out of the top 10 in lesser tournaments. One thing is that he may not feel as motivated to win them and prefers to peak at the majors, as most smart and successful veteran players have done. The other is not getting enough matches under his belt, losing confidence and inspiring others when having so many relatively early exits. The effect on the majors will come sooner or later.

So what is to be expected from Federer in the future? I don't predict a quick demise. I believe he still will get deep at the Majors, but not consistently making semis and finals in all of them. He will probably win Wimbledon once more, maybe twice, and win another US Open or Australian. Expect to see him linger in the top 3 for the rest of the year (finishing 2nd or 3rd depending on the fast rise of another dominant figure or intense competition), but next year struggling to be in the Top 5, prioritizing tournaments even more, and maybe focusing on the Davis Cup if he has a good team. 

He will play 2012, and maybe 2013 baring injury or poor results, but by then his nimble footwork (a major part of his success) will have finally lost a step. We should not be surprised when it happens. This process is natural for even the best athletes and it is time to have others dominating the sport. Perhaps a slow decline will help B/R become more interesting, as few of us will be talking about Federer as much. So, let's start paying attention to the rise of old and new stars, and finally get ready to say goodbye to the great era of Roger Federer.