Adam Dunn: Washington National's Slugger Better Than Tony Gwynn?

Adam Dunn is one of baseball's most underrated players, especially by those who reject modern statistical measurements. When one examines the numbers, the Washington Nationals outfielder compares favorably to San Diego Padres Hall of Famer Tony Gwynn.

OPS, on base plus slugging, is defined as on base percentage + slugging average. It is an approximate guide of a player's ability to get on base and drive in runs.

Dunn's career OPS is .904. Gwynn's is .847.

Dunn's lifetime batting average is only .250, compared to Gwynn's .338. Dunn's on base percentage is .383, a mere .005 points less than Gywnn's .388.

Dunn is slugging at a .520 pace. Gwynn posted a .459 mark.

OPS-plus is OPS measured against the league average, and adjusted for ballpark factors. An OPS-plus of over 100 is better than average, while less than 100 is below average.

Dunn and Gwynn both have an OPS-plus of 132.

Criticized by some for striking out too much, Dunn has averaged 180 strikeouts a season, with a career high of 195 in 2004.

Strikeouts are not as bad as experts once believed. In many instances, such as when a runner is on first base with less than two outs, a strikeout is preferable to a ground ball because the strikeout will usually avoid the double play.  Don't start the runner.

On average, Dunn drives in 97 runs a campaign, 21 more than Gwynn.

Dunn averages 39 home runs over a 162-game season. He had 40 round trippers for five consecutive seasons (2004-2008), while falling just short with 39 in 2009.

Gwynn never hit more than 17 home runs during his storied tenure with the Padres and averaged only nine home runs a season.

Those who claim that Gwynn was more valuable than Dunn point out that the former averaged only 29 strikeouts a season.

Pitchers fear power hitters like Dunn. Gwynn walked about 52 times a year while Dunn averages 114 free passes.

Gwynn was a star, but the days when his type of player was considered among the most valuable in baseball have passed. Not striking out, stealing bases, hitting singles, and having a high batting average are now overrated.

Thanks to the evolution of statistical evaluation, the greatness and value of talents like Dunn are finally being recognized.

Five years after he retires, the Hall of Fame will call Dunn.

References

Adam Dunn at Baseball Reference

Tony Gwynn at Baseball Reference

Washington Nationals at Baseball Reference

Hall of Fame at Baseball Reference