What the Tampa Bay Rays Have Learned In 2010: They Are Not All In

All the talk this season has been how the Rays are going "all in,"  and the team's record-high payroll supports that argument.  And with a number of players in the final season of their contract—Carl Crawford, Carlos Pena, Rafael Soriano—it looks like this might be it for the current core of players.

But if there's anything the first third of the 2010 season has taught the Rays, it's that the future doesn't look so doom and gloom.

Yes, the Rays are going to lose Carl Crawford.  Maybe if they had an agreement for a new stadium in place, Crawford would be re-signed as the trophy for the new digs.  But for Rays fans to be able to see Crawford at Tropicana next year, it will probably be with him wearing pinstripes.

While fans may miss him, it will not take them long to endear themselves to hotshot prospect Desmond Jennings, who will be taking over left field in 2011.  And he gives the Rays something Crawford does not—plate discipline and patience.  Jennings career numbers hover around .400 OBP in the minors.

Carlos Pena is such a peculiar case.  At first I thought he might be the most likely to re-sign, despite having Scott Boras as an agent.  But I truly think the Rays may be tiring of Pena's hot and cold play—especially at a cost of around $10 million a season.

The interesting case will be Rafael Soriano.  A perfect 15 for 15, the Rays $7 million closer has been worth every penny.  But can they afford this "expensive toy?"  Can they give a multi-year deal to a reliever with a checkered injury history?  If the Rays can keep the cost around three years and $21 million, I think they roll the dice.  But as good as Soriano is doing this year, even that is a big if.

The more curious case comes in a few unexpected places.  Everyone expected Jason Bartlett to come down to earth after hitting around .340 for most of last year.  But I don't think everyone expected Reid Brignac to be playing such a big role for the club and starting at second base.  With Bartlett getting older and starting to lose some of his range—if his bat doesn't come around—the Rays can trim another $6 to $7 million from next year's budget (Bartlett is earning $4 million in 2010, with more to come in arbitration) by switching to Brignac.

Dioner Navarro was most likely on his last chance with the Rays in 2010 and John Jaso has sealed his fate.  Navarro has been one of the worst hitters in the entire American League in the past two seasons and his defense does not do enough to warrant a roster spot.  Not with the hot hitting Jaso providing a wonderful righty complement to the lefty mashing Kelly Shoppach.

So if you are keeping track, the Rays have $36 million coming off the books in 2010 (Crawford, Pena, Soriano, Burrell).  The Rays have another $6 million between Bartlett and Navarro.  What this means is even after the bumps in pay from arbitration eligible players, the Rays payroll will only be between $30 and $40 million with its current roster.  In other words, they could have anywhere from $15 to $25 million dollars to play with.  They will need a closer (or will re-sign Soriano), a first baseman, a designated hitter, and possibly a right fielder.

The Rays also have the ability to trade a pitcher, with the team awaiting the arrival of the next wunderkind in Jeremy Hellickson.  Hellickson is currently 8-2 in AAA.  Trading away any of their pitchers could solve one of their needs.  Since the Rays like cost-control, the odds are they are trading for someone who is still inexpensive and under team control for a few seasons.

In other words, when looking at the future forecast, the Rays future looks bright.  The Rays may be putting a lot of eggs in one basket in 2010, but they definitely are not all in.