What Factors Are in Auburn's Favor in 2010?

This article puts the four major contenders for the SEC Western Division side by side for comparison. It is now time to take a look at Auburn’s chances of finding themselves in Atlanta for the SEC Championship Game.

This process is of elimination and not what team is best at this point in the year. With four teams this closely matched up in the SEC west this year, the champion could be decided on the smallest of factors.

One prediction that can be grasped from the side by side comparison is, all of these four teams could beat each other on any given day. The SEC Western Division will be a slugfest of epic proportions in 2010.

While most consider Alabama the favorite in this slugfest, very few are basing that assessment on anything substantial. Most are simply picking last years champion to repeat in 2010.

Does Alabama have any advantage in 2010? I am not so sure. Here are some of the biggest variables to consider.

Most of the major prognosticators and football gurus are predicting the battle for the SEC Western Division to be between four teams. Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn and LSU are expected to battle it out between themselves for the title.

Strength of Schedule

While each of these teams will play each other during the regular season, we must not ignore the powers in the east. The SEC Eastern Division is being predicted to lean Florida’s way again with South Carolina and Georgia following up. Take a look at which eastern powers each team plays.

* denotes away game

Alabama	Florida		South Carolina *
Arkansas		Georgia *	South Carolina *
Auburn		Georgia	South Carolina
LSU	Florida *

Ranking most difficult to least: Alabama, LSU, Arkansas, Auburn

We all know these teams all play each other, but home field advantage is not a factor to ignore when teams are this close.

* denotes away game   # denotes first half of season

Alabama	# Arkansas *	LSU*	Auburn
Arkansas	# Alabama	LSU	Auburn*
Auburn	Arkansas	LSU	Alabama*
LSU	Alabama	Auburn*	Arkansas*

Alabama and Arkansas play an early season game against each other. This is an away game for Alabama, which are always more difficult games. Alabama and LSU play two away games and those are also more difficult.

Ranking most difficult to least: Alabama, LSU, Auburn, Arkansas 

One more note here, Alabama plays six SEC opponents after a bye week. This is about as close to a murders' row as one can get in college football. Auburn plays an insane eleven straight games again. This will surely emphasize any depth issues that might remain.

On a scale of 1 to 5 with five being most difficult, here is how I see these teams strength of schedule in the SEC.

Alabama 5

LSU 3

Arkansas 3

Auburn 3

The only factors not in Auburn’s favor are one away game and playing eleven straight games. Otherwise this would be the perfect SEC schedule.

Arkansas plays two of the eastern powers on the road as well as Auburn. This is a very favorable schedule as well.

LSU only plays one of the eastern powers and Auburn on the road. This is also a very favorable schedule.

A schedule could not get much worse for Alabama. They play both Arkansas and LSU away. They also play one eastern power away. They play six SEC teams after bye weeks. The list goes on and on.

Attrition

Recovering from players graduated or otherwise lost is always a difficult task. While Alabama and LSU like to say they are reloading, in this case they are reloading at least half of a magazine. Both programs lost a ton of talent to the NFL.

Arkansas has the most players back for 2010 as well as the most skilled players.

Auburn has the second most players back for 2010 as well as most of the skilled players.

LSU lost a lot of players for 2010, but not as many as Alabama. They have to replace several starters and rebuild a very bad offense. They need to replace eighteen decent players for the 2010 season.

Alabama is replacing the majority of the defense and several skilled players on offense and special teams. Alabama needs to replace seventeen players including their top scorer this year.

Ranking most difficult to least: Alabama, LSU, Auburn, Arkansas

Recruiting becomes important when a team loses as many players as Alabama and LSU. Alabama lost the equivalent of an entire recruiting class to the NFL this year.

If six to eight players from the average class of twenty actually produce on the field, that class is considered a success. Both Alabama and LSU have to replace about twice the number of contributors from the average class.

I will use ESPN ranking for this as all three major services are close and ESPN does not include JUCO recruits in their assessment. This puts Auburn at a distinct disadvantage and Alabama and LSU at the most advantage.

Team	2008 Class Rank	2009 Class Rank	2010 Class Rank
Alabama	3rd	2nd	3rd
Arkansas	18th	20th	Not Ranked
Auburn	19th	25th	4th
LSU	11th	1st	8th

Alabama needs to replace twice the average producers from a recruiting class. Their 2007 recruiting class was ranked 17^th nationally and this is where their seniors and red shirt juniors will come from.

There will be two or three of this class contributing this year. Alabama has fourteen seniors on the roster. Most of these players do not contribute playing time. Alabama has four 5 star players still on the roster.

Even with the most optimistic outlook for a recruiting class Alabama has lost two complete recruiting classes of talent out of the last four. That leaves Alabama with the equivalent of two recruiting classes with a national ranking average of 6.67 left to pull talent from.

LSU had the sixth ranked class in 2007. They have lost the equivalent of two complete recruiting classes as well. They will have the same issues as Alabama and similar depth issues.

LSU has about a dozen seniors of which most do not contribute playing time.   LSU has five 5 star players on the roster.

Auburn had the seventh ranked class in 2007. Many of this class are seniors this year and will be contributing. Auburn has 23 seniors on the roster, the majority of them contribute.

Auburn has very little to replace this year. They add four 5 star players to the roster, Cameron Newton at quarterback, Mike McNeil at safety, Michael Dyer at running back, Trovon Reed at slot receiver.

Arkansas had little to replace and they upgraded where they did. Arkansas has one 5 star player on the roster. While Arkansas does not have a roster full of five star talents, they have upgraded the talent level drastically over the last three years.

Outlook

Alabama : Has a chance, but it is a very difficult chance, at repeating in the west.

Arkansas : Has a less difficult path than Alabama, and a good chance at contending.

Auburn : Other than playing eleven games in a row, this is about as good as it gets.

LSU: I think an SEC Western Division title is a stretch for them this year.