Sorry, Canada: Why the Toronto Blue Jays Are Pretenders

The AL East is usually one of the easiest divisions to figure out. The New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox reside near the top, and in recent years the Tampa Bay Rays have joined them.

Meanwhile, the Toronto Blue Jays and Baltimore Orioles duke it out for the coveted title of not being last.

This year seems different. The Boston Red Sox have fallen to fourth, with third place being taken over by Toronto, which has a winning record and is holding on to third place. It's a spot they are familiar with, as eight of their last 12 seasons ended with them there.

Nonetheless, they usually stay around .500 but seem to be different this year.

The Jays ranking in the top few teams in strikeouts was no surprise. They have always been among the top in that category. Granted, they did it the past few years with Roy Halladay; they don't have him now yet easily lead the league.

What is surprising is their power. They lead the league easily in doubles, home runs, and slugging percentage.

This would be great if their other numbers were decent as well. Unfortunately, they have their focus on power, and it seems to be at the expense of small ball. They're near the bottom at batting average at .240, losing to the likes of Cleveland and Baltimore, and they are 10th in the American League in ERA at 4.40.

On a surface scan of other statistics, one notes that their stolen bases are up and their triples are back up after a bad 2009 for that. All this sounds like they are a legitimate contender, so why the pessimism about the Toronto team by many, myself included?

Well, for starters, no one expected them to be this good, and naturally people hold on to predictions best they can. Nearly every major writer had them fourth, with others having them fifth and Baltimore rising somewhat. Sure, high strikeout totals were nice, but if the stats that matter more, like actually keeping runs from being scored, are not up to snuff, then they're not going to be in the thick of the race.

Second, we've seen this story before. This time last year, they were 24-14 and leading the division, in fact leading everyone except the Dodgers. This time two years ago, they were at .500 but were nearly last in the division.

This brings me to my main point: The AL East is just loaded with talent.

To get into the playoffs, you would need at least 90 wins to have a shot, which Toronto has not been able to do. Furthermore, the Yankees have shown that they are among the best teams despite rocky starts around this time. Last year, their win percentage from here on out was .669; three years ago it was .611. Can Toronto compete with a team like that that they are already behind? It's not likely.

One more thing: If I had to pick a recent team this one is most similar to, I would go with the 2007 Brewers. They finished 83-79 despite having a similar record at this time (though they were up by 5.5 games). They were at the top in home runs and near it in slugging percentage and strikeouts but were average at best in batting average and ERA. This is where the Blue Jays stand now.

To use a cross-sports analogy, the Blue Jays are that basketball team that relies on the three-point shot. It looks nice, and they may have a great record, but it always comes back to bite that team, and it will for one reason, if nothing else:

The schedule.

They've faced and won series against Baltimore, Cleveland, and Kansas City but have yet to face New York, Detroit, and Minnesota. The tough part of their schedule is in early June. If, after that, they have a great record and come out of a nine-game stretch with Tampa Bay and the Yanks unscathed, then perhaps they'll gain our respect.

I would like to see them succeed and the monotony broken up in the AL East, like the Rays were able to do a couple years back, but history is not on their side, and if those three-point shots stop falling, if those home runs stop landing, and if those strikeouts are lines into the outfield, this team will take a nasty tumble.

They have the pitching and hitting ability to stay in contention, and if they can avoid reliance on the above, they will be all right in the end.