World Cup 2010: Predictions For Portugal, Ronaldo in the Group of Death

Portugal will head to South Africa this year after a rocky qualifying campaign, in which they barely made it out of their group with a single point over Sweden followed by a 1-0 scrape past Bosnia and Herzegovina.

They have however earned their rank among European powerhouses France, Spain, Italy and Germany as the only teams who have qualified for all Euro and World Cup tournaments since 2000. 

This year they’re up against 5-time winners Brazil, African favorites Ivory Coast, and North Korea in South Africa’s most exciting  group to watch.

SCHEDULE

Ivory Coast: June 15

North Korea: June 20

Brazil: June 25

Portugal is under new management this year with Carlos Queiroz, former assistant to Sir Alex at Man U.  Though he can’t claim the international accolades of former Portugal boss Luis Filipe Scolari, he’s certainly a coach in his own right, having lead the Portuguese national side in the 1990s. 

His team premiers in South Africa against Ivory Coast in the game that will set their momentum for the rest of their tournament.  Their limp through the qualifying games with only five of ten wins means they’ll need to make a strong statement against coach Sven Goran-Eriksson’s top African squad.

Portugal has lost a number of its World Cup 2006 staples, and while they bring with them the experience of players like of Deco and Costinha, they’ll also have plenty of World Cup first timers in tow. 

It’s not that the talent isn’t there, but the experience—Ariza Makukula and Bruno Gama will be making their international debuts and are already attracting attention. 

Portugal should be able to walk confidently away from their match versus North Korea, who haven’t qualified for a World Cup since the England 1966.  The teams’ last meet-up was a quarterfinal battle at Goodison Park that saw the Koreans leading 3-0 before a 5-goal Portugal comeback. 

It goes without saying that the Portuguese will have to bring it all out against Brazil in game three.  The Little Canary will likely be sans Ronaldo, but given the recent form of attackers Kaka and Luis Fabiano, the side remains rightly feared and heavily favored. 

Portugal’s less-than-momentous start shouldn’t count them out (think France in Germany 2006), and they do have the player who can turn any game in Cristiano Ronaldo.  It will be a constant push for the Portuguese if they want success past the knock-out rounds in South Africa this year. 

KEY PLAYERS

Despite their highest World Cup placement being fourth, Portugal has access to an abundance of individual superstars, especially in their wingers. 

Ronaldo is a tournament centerpiece, his outstanding technical ability and lethal set pieces an asset to the Portuguese side.  With Nuno Gomes leading the line and Ronaldo working alongside, the two bring a combination of experience and expertise to the firing line.

30 year old Athletico Madrid winger Simao will continue to feature heavily in the team’s results.  He led Portugal out of the qualifying games this year with four goals and can be expected to bring his finishing and his set piece skills to tournament play.

Portugal has always cultivated tactically talented youth with a knack for attacking and playmaking, particularly through Sporting Lisbon— Simao, Luis Figo, and Ricardo Quaresma, equally talented as Ronaldo in speed, toughness, and technical skill, have all emerged through Sporting’s ranks to earn their worth on the international level.

Nani’s recent sparkling at Man U has proven him a lethal finisher if he can connect with the ball.  Deco has long been a midfield stronghold for the Portuguese, but it remains to be seen whether the 32 year old midfielder can hold pace with a young Portugal side in 2010.  Promising 23 year old central midfielder João Moutinho may be able to pick up where Deco leaves off.

In the back Portugal will miss Jose Bosingwa, out with a knee injury, but have nearly the rest of the Chelsea defense on their side in Ricardo Carvalho and Paulo Ferreira.  On the end line Hilario is an able shot stopper but undependable for crosses and set pieces.  Bruno Alves of FC Porto and Real Madrid's Pepe will be crucial to Portugal’s defensive barrier.    

STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES

Portugal’s strength lies in their attack going forward and their playmaking prowess.  With their reserve of quality wingers in Ronaldo, Simao, and Nani, and Nuno Gomes’ international goal rate of 1-3 per international match, they can be a real threat to their opponents’ defense.     

The tactical ability of Ronaldo and Quaresma produces opportunities going forward.  Riding the energy of impressive offensive bursts and skillful playmaking from the likes of Deco and Ronaldo, Portugal could rally momentum and pick up enough speed to get them out of Group G— but they’ll need to rely on more than that to see themselves any further. 

For as deftly as they create goal scoring opportunities, they just as consistently fail to capitalize on them, and little else matters in a point-dependent competition like World Cup.

IT WOULD BE A GREAT WORLD CUP IF...

Portugal gets a big win over Ivory Coast, taking them out of Group G with Brazil.  Dunga’s side will find both Portugal and Ivory Coast challenging competition but should clench the group in the end. 

Portugal dominates individual matches in possession and tactic, but their challenge will be in not conceding goals on the counter or from set pieces.  The question for Portugal is whether they can accomplish that and see their strikers finish as many chances as their midfielders create— if so, they could move confidently into the knock-out rounds.   

IT WOULD BE A DISASTER IF…

Portugal winds up at the bottom of Group G.  They need a win, or at least a point, against the Africans in game one.  Queiroz’s heavy dependence on his youth during qualifiers proved a strain on the Portuguese side, who, without Figo, would be wise to utilize the experience and able leadership available to them in players like Deco and Simao.  They’ll need him and Nani to find the back of the net at every chance.

MY PREDICTION

All eyes will be on the Group of Death as it promises excitement no matter what.  There’s no telling who it belongs to and it could produce some surprising results.   But for Portugal, even with a few prodigious individuals they’ll enter this World Cup an average side on the whole.  They lack a decisive keeper and a defensive reserve should they lose anyone to injury in the back. 

The absence of Figo, their inability to capitalize, and a far from stellar qualifying performance also point to an early send-off.   Coupled with a very real threat from Drogba and the Ivory Coast, who are already adapted to the African climate challenge, Portugal will struggle to reach the knock-out rounds if they get there at all.