Five Reasons the New York Mets Will Finish .500

The New York Mets have been the tale of two teams in this young season. They have been, in a word, streaky. The streaks, however, seem to coincide with where they are playing. They have a record of 13-5 at home, 4-8 on the road for a total of 17-13 going into the final game against the San Francisco Giants on this Mother's Day.

There has been just a little over a month of games played so far and the team has had too many ups and downs to review. The expectations of both the players and their fans have been high after coming off of such a injury plagued season last season. The first month has seen the Mets fall to the basement of the division and eventually climb out,  to first place. That is the extent of the streakiness . However, with high expectations also come a long drop if they fail to meet those expectations.

I do not believe that they will meet those expectations for five reasons. First, the team's overall health will be a factor in the final record. They have already spent time waiting this season for several key players such as: Carlos Beltran, Joe Reyes, Daniel Murphy, Luis Castillo, John Maine, Mike Pelfrey among others. All with the exception of Beltran and Murphy have played this season.

The team has done very well despite having both of these players yet to play this season. They have had others fill in, some well, others not so well. Most notably, it has been Ike Davis who has dispelled Murphy of his starter's position. Others in centerfield have done well defensively, but not so well offensively. This is where the team really misses Beltran.

All reports on Beltran are negative ones. He is still not close to running and the prognosis is just as pessimistic. He was supposed to be ready by around opening day. It is already close to a month and a half after that. If the Mets suffer another major blow, this team will be in trouble. Ownership spent the offseason trying to build up the minors with suitable replacements in the unlikely event that the team sees a reoccurring of last season.

The players that they signed, however, are suitable, but not close to equal value. Can the Mets really trust Henry Blanco everyday? Probably not. He had a wonderful walk-off home run on Saturday, but he is not the model of consistency. What about Frank Catalanotto ? In no way can they trust him. So while he can play multiple positions, he can't hit.

Do the Mets really think they can trust Gary Matthews Jr.? He is a walking injury ward when he plays on a regular basis. At some point, health will be an even bigger factor this season than it already is. When that time comes, they may not be able to overcome it without making some moves.

This brings me to my second reason: Omar Minaya . The Mets' General Manager has not shown the ability to make the big in-season trade. He can make a series of head-scratching smaller ones, but never has he made a big one. Every major transaction he has been credited for has happened before the season. Minaya just is not that active in the middle of the season.

Therefore, it could be observed that he is not good at making roster adjustments due to immediate team needs. If he is weak in this area and the team has a major need to fill in midseason , they cannot count on him to make a great move to push them over the top. Minaya may make smaller moves and depend on the manager to utilize them effectively.

Which brings me to my third reason: Jerry Manuel. Manuel is a player's manager, but he is not a manager that will keep the discipline and focus. He will try too hard to keep the peace and a light mood. That is good sometimes, but there is a time and a place for it. This team needs a crack in their tails at times, not a wisecrack. They need to be whipped into focus and play with hustle and heart, not do the hustle with a light heart.

It's good to be loose and to play loose, but when it affects their play on the field, it becomes a problem. The play on the field reflects their manager's style of managing, loose and carefree. His decisions many times are questionable at best. He leaves the average fan wondering why he makes certain moves, especially with the bullpen.

For example, he benched David Wright the other day just to give him an inning off. Why? If Wright has been slumping or if he has been hot, either way, he is NOT a player to have on the bench for an inning. You have him on the bench to begin a game, just for a day off and bring him out to pinch hit later perhaps, but not taking him out at the end of the game.

He overworks the bullpen at times, in particular the closer Francisco Rodriguez. The other night he brought K-Rod in for a two-inning save. This is not abnormal, I know, but still the bullpen had some fresh arms as well available for the eighth inning. His style of managing and his decision making will cost this team wins. It already has. When a team goes on the road against their fiercest rival and plays too loose without intensity for the moment, they are bound to lose.

This brings me to my fourth reason, I like to call road heart. As evidenced by their record on the road, they do not play well away from Queens. This is troublesome. The loose style of play translates into lack of discipline. That lack of discipline translates into mental and physical mistakes. Those mistakes translate into losses.

The Mets seem to lose their heart away from Citi Field. A team with heart only half of the time is not a playoff team. They need to find their unity and intensity in unfriendly circumstances. That alone will separate them from half of the competition that they face this year.

A playoff team must be equally as much of a threat on the road as they are at home, or else they will not have the ability to execute properly as needed to get beyond the regular season. The opposition and the schedule does not get easier in the playoffs. A playoff caliber team must show that they are that caliber.

The fifth reason why the New York Mets will not make the playoffs and be only about a .500 team is the youth and inexperience. I know the core that everyone raves about has some limited playoff experience, but the Mets are not relying on them completely.

Especially when a member of that core, Carlos Beltran, may or may not even be there for a late season run. The players that will primarily be relied on are the Ike Davis' and Rod Barajas ' of the team. The ones who have very limited experience being on a mediocre team let alone a playoff contender. What experience does Jeff Francoeur have on the matter? Not much as the Atlanta Braves have not done well in several years.

Jason Bay was on a winning team with the Boston Red Sox , but not when they won the World Series. Luis Castillo and K-Rod have had championship experience, but not recently. Johan Santana has been on winning team, but always stumbling in the playoffs. The core has also stumbled in the playoffs. The rest of the group can't even have the same said for them as well.

Experience is everything down the stretch. It is what helped the Phillies come back on our beloved Mets the second year because of the confidence that grew in them from the experience of the first year. Experience and confidence go hand in hand. This year will be a stepping block for the youthful Mets and another level of confidence gained for the core group.

They could come into next season stronger and more experienced, beaming with confidence, but only if there are changes made in this organization that allow for such a mentality of discipline and experience to blossom into success.