2010 WORD CUP PREVIEW: URUGUAY

It all came down to one goal. After 2 years and 20 matches, a 1-0 away victory over Costa Rica in the CONMEBOL/CONCACAF play-off was the difference between Uruguay not qualifying for a second consecutive World Cup, and booking a trip to South Africa.

Uruguay struggled throughout a difficult qualifying campaign in which they played a double round-robin against the CONMEBOL teams.  They finished 5th—just enough to see them into the play-off spot.

SCHEDULE

France: June 11

South Africa: June 16

Mexico: June 22

Group A will match Uruguay with some familiar and difficult sides, France and Mexico, while also pairing them with the less familiar host country, South Africa.

In Uruguay’s last World Cup appearance, the 2002 World Cup, they met France in the groups stages, where they played out a goalless draw.  In 2010 they meet again, on the opening day in Cape Town, where they will hope for a similar result.

From there Uruguay travel the 1460km north to Pretoria, to match up against the hosts, Bafana Bafana.  Here, they will be expected to collect maximum points from the South Africans—a doable, yet difficult task given the host nation’s home field advantage.

Finally, they will play the team ranked directly above them in the FIFA World Rankings, 17th placed Mexico, in Rustenburg.  Depending on the table dynamic, the final group game could be a head to head match, with the victor moving onto the knockout stage.

Expect Uruguay to get stuck in against Mexico and France, hoping to pick up a win in one of the two matches, while being satisfied with a draw in either of them.

KEY PLAYERS

Uruguay will be looking to Diego Forlan to produce the magic needed to help them get out of the group stage.

Forlan, a two time leading scorer in La Liga and two time European Golden Shoe winner (one he shares with Thierry Henry), sits at the heart of Uruguay’s attack.  The most prolific Uruguayan player, with stints at Manchester United, Villarreal, and now currently at Atlético Madrid, Forlan is known to strike when the pressure is on.  He recently dumped Liverpool out of the Europa League semi-final after scoring two decisive goals. 

Forlan also played a crucial role in the qualifying campaign, leading the team with 7 goals despite inconsistent tactics which saw him play a number of different positions.

Defensively, Uruguay will rely on team captain Diego Lugano to hold the team together and protect the back line.

The Fenerbahce central defender is a natural leader and provides a critical role both in the defensive half and in the locker room.  His tough presence on the field coupled with his experience could prove pivotal, especially with the younger players. His only weakness is, he tends to make rash tackles that may lead to him taking an early walk down the tunnel.

STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES

Uruguay’s greatest strength lies within its attacking prowess.  The power of Forlan and Suarez provide the potential to produce goals against even the staunchest defenses.  Luis Suarez currently has an outstanding 49 goals from 48 matches for Ajax.  The biggest hindrance to unleashing their awesome arsenal rests in the inconsistency of the midfield to arm their two best weapons with the ball.

Nicolas Lodeiro, a 20 year old rising star, will add some security to the midfield.  He must, however, reproduce the form he had in his national team debut against Costa Rica in the play-off match.  Lodeiro’s creativity and skill is greatly needed in Uruguay’s midfield, but to rely on a youngster with almost no national team experience could prove futile.

Ultimately, consistency on the pitch must also be matched by consistency in tactics from Uruguayan manager Oscar Tabárez.  During qualification, Tabárez regularly changes tactics, often times moving players around into unfamiliar and ineffective positions.  With the tournament quickly approaching, the time for experimenting is long past.

IT WOULD BE A GREAT WORLD CUP IF...

 

Uruguay snatch a win against either France or Mexico and make it through to the knockout stage, setting up a potential match with huge rivals Argentina.  In that scenario anything can happen, as it is the oldest rivalry in soccer, going back over 100 years with over 180 matches between them.

 

IT WOULD BE A DISASTER IF...

 

Uruguay does not take any points from the group.  If they are unable gain points from either France or Mexico then they must at least win against Bafana Bafana, again a task that is never easy against a home team.  It would be a shame to see them leave as France did back in 2002, goalless.

 

MY PREDICTION

 

With two big teams like Mexico and France in the group, it might be easy to quickly dismiss the Uruguayans.  However, I would not be surprised to see them cause an upset against France or Mexico; or perhaps both.

 

It really depends on who shows up to play.  They have the players and potential to be a force, but the coaching needs to be sound and the midfield strong.  They need to be consistent.

 

Ultimately, I think these problems will be too much for them, and while some may see them going through, I feel that they will find themselves doing more watching than playing in South Africa.