2010 NFL Draft: The Nature Of Sports Writing—My 100th Article

speculation [spek-yuh-ley-shuhn], n. The contemplation or consideration of some subject.

The very crux of the NFL draft, for both sports writers and NFL execs/GMs, is speculation. “Who will this team draft?” “Who is the best quarterback this year?” “Who has the most potential in the late rounds?”

These are the topics that sports writers dwell on.

Believe me, NFL GMs and head coaches have spent far more time than us speculating on these very same subjects.

But down the road, it could all be for naught. The countless hours, days even, that many writers put into their articles and mock drafts could (and probably will) be ripped to shreds over time. All it takes is one rogue player who didn’t want to fit in the cookie-cutter shape that was molded for him.

Take Tom Brady, for example. There were apparently 198 players who were supposed to have better careers than him. In hindsight, what GM in their right mind wouldn’t have taken him first overall in the 2000 draft?

Or David Carr, who (according to respected pundits) was supposed to be a "Troy Aikmain-like quarterback who you build your franchise around"? Would he even be drafted in retrospect?

We’ve already spent weeks, some of us even months, in dialogue with one another over the potential Hall of Fame careers of guys like Ndamukong Suh, while belittling the “inevitable” bust status of Tim Tebow and others.

Many of the surefire future All-Pros could go on to lead dismal careers that fall short of expectations; others graded far lower on the boards could fall into place with the right team at the right time and will be household names within the next few years.

The truth is we don’t know anything until it’s all said and done.

But when is it all said and done? Only when all the players have retired could you possibly put the “perfect” perspective on who “won” the draft, and that task would be exponentially more belaboring and daunting than grading that same group of players coming into the draft.

Take the New England Patriots, for example, who traded Richard Seymour just before opening day of the 2009 season for a 2011 first-round draft pick from the Oakland Raiders. The trade could be debated one way or the other. Many fans take the stance that New England traded one of their best pass rushers, and a future Hall of Famer, for what won’t amount to anything at all until 2011.

Others will posit the stance that New England planted a golden seed by cutting down the Seymour tree, and will wait until 2011 and beyond to watch it grow. By 2011, the new collective bargaining agreement should be in place, thus avoiding the high price tag normally associated with a top 10 draft selection (come on, do you really think the Raiders are going anywhere this year?).

Was the trade a good choice? It’s still unclear, and will remain so until that 2011 first-round draft pick retires sometime in the 2020’s. And hindsight is 20/20, so that’s only fitting.

I’m not saying that it’s pointless to speculate. It’s great to think of ourselves as “armchair GMs”. But remember, everyone, that anything you’ve read or will read about the 2010 NFL draft is a conjecture.

It’s pointless to be up in arms over someone’s opinion (unless that opinion is pompous, biased, or just plain uninformed). After all, conjecture is the essence of sports writing.

And all that conjecture will go out the window when those players step on the field.

We’ll have to wait to the bitter end to put the 100-percent accurate perspective on it. Until then, what’s to stop us from speculating?