UFC 111 B/R MMA Roundtable Discussion: Frank Mir Vs. Shane Carwin

Now that we’ve whet your appetite and discussed the possible number one contender’s matchup between Jon Fitch and Thiago Alves , it’s time to turn our attention to the big boys.

Battling it out for the UFC Interim Heavyweight Title—and the opportunity to welcome Brock Lesnar back to the UFC—are Shane Carwin and Frank Mir.

Robert Gardner

Honestly, this is the matchup that I am most looking forward to on this spectacular card. Carwin is an absolute monster and Mir has turned himself into a beast with the new training regime. But, as much as I am looking forward to this fight, I'm just not sold on Carwin's validity as a contender. Yes, the guy has crazy KO power but we really haven't seen anything else from him.

E. Spencer Kyte

Funny you should mention that, because I asked Carwin about it last week, and he finds it as interesting as I do. We always want to find holes and flaws, and so we question what else he has, but he's smashed the life out of everyone he's faced. How come that is never good enough?

Albert Pujols tears the face off the ball every year, but we don't turn around and say, "Yeah, great, but can he pitch?"

Carwin was a championship D2 wrestler and nearly made the NFL. I think we all know there is more to him than simply knockout power, and it's not his fault no one has forced him to show that yet.

Joe Schafer

I have to agree with Robert's opinion on Carwin's legitimacy as a true contender, especially with Dos Santos and Cain on the brink of being champion material.  I've been saying this ever since Brock got sick: Carwin vs. Brock made more sense on the business end and plus the UFC had even worse No. 1 contenders choices during that time—Cain and Dos Santos were just not ready to fill that gap. 

Who does that leave? 

How about that huge guy that almost got beat by Gonzaga (a fellow mid-range HW) but came back for the KO win?  Goliath vs. Goliath sells PPVs.  You don't almost get beat by Gonzaga and get a shot at the title with a record like his, unless you're Brock Lesnar, who got fast tracked to the belt. 

Sure, Carwin doesn't get to pick his opponents, but the quality of opponents he's beat does matter when deciding if he's a legit contender.  But we digress....ha.  All of this will be exposed by Tank Mir.

Robert Gardner

I’m sure Carwin does have a nice little arsenal of weapons but I’m still hesitant about crowning him a contender. The body of work is just not there yet and I’m not sure if he can really compete with Lesnar, Mir, Velasquez, and Dos Santos.

Carwin’s power makes him a threat to anyone he fights but what about his cardio? What about his grappling?

Division II Nation Champion Wrestler is all well and good but Gonzaga was able to take him down with relative ease.

I just find myself asking too many questions to be sold on him. Getting past Mir would put all my worries regarding him to rest.

E. Spencer Kyte

The thing to me is that there are always going to be unknowns about guys, so why not focus on what he has done? Instead of looking at Joe's stretch of "almost getting beat" by Gonzaga—sorry dude, didn't happen, he got clipped, but not almost beat—look at the fact that he then put away the former title contender in less than half a round.

And as much as I love JDS, Werdum is still his biggest and best win. He's beaten names, but Carwin would have done the same things to Struve, Cro Cop, and Yvel, and did the same thing to "Napao." I think Carwin has shown that he has devastating power and he's got the size and wrestling background to put a guy on his ass and beat him into submission if need be.

Really, he's kind of the D2 version of Lesnar, with proven power, no?

Joe Schafer

Let's reminds ourselves what happened within that minute they fought: Carwin gets rocked by 2-3 shots, gets taken down, stands up and throws one heavy shot ending the fight.  So, I don't think it's a stretch to think Gonzaga was winning up until that point.

What has Carwin done in MMA except for that?  He's beaten Christian Wellisch, Neil Wain, and Gonzaga, all in the UFC to earn his title shot. Unless one of his unknown opponents outside of the UFC is worth bringing up, that's not all that impressive. Maybe Carwin is the beast Spencer thinks he is, but it's not our fault we haven't got a chance to see it yet—we can only go off what we've seen, the rest is speculative. 

Both Cain and DS have surpassed Carwin in the rankings, in my humble opinion; we've seen what they've done. Carwin is a strong fourth or fifth seed in the division depending on the outcome of his fight with Mir. 

E. Spencer Kyte

I'm not disagreeing with you about the caliber of opponent he's faced or that JDS and Cain have now passed him in the rankings, but to me, we can't fault a guy for the unknown, and I've never been one to buy into the whole "he was losing that fight until he won it" mentality. It's a fight—it's not done until it's done.

Additionally, no matter who you're facing—if you're knocking everyone out inside the first round, you're a threat, and a serious one at that. We had no idea what Brock Lesnar had to offer until he got in there, and now he's the UFC Heavyweight champion. What's to say Shane Carwin doesn't have that same ability with more proven punching power?

Joe Schafer

It seems like we agree that nobody has seen Carwin max out his potential.  Maybe he's the next Brock Lesnar, maybe he isn't, but does that make him a contender for the belt over the other two deserving guys? I think we all need to see where Carwin really stands in the division by giving him some stiffer competition before a shot at the belt; which will be Frank Mir at UFC 111. 

Getting back to Mir, unless Carwin lands one of his "one hitter quitters," Mir's going to give him trouble.  Mir can fight off his back, which in this case is perfect considering how quickly we'll see Carwin resort to what he knows: wrestling.  Between the added weight and the recent experience of fighting huge strikers and wrestlers, Mir will calmly find a way to avoid the big shot and defeat Carwin.

E. Spencer Kyte

The part about Mir I can definitely agree with. This is a perfect warm-up opponent for the Lesnar-obsessed former champion to test his new size against a guy who is built similarly to Brock. A couple things I'm very interested in seeing with Mir is whether the flexibility and maneuverability that he possessed when he was 240 is there at 265, and whether he has the chin to stand up to one of those "one hitter quitters" you're talking about.

But enough from us, what do you think Mr. Gardner?

Robert Gardner

You bring up a great question about Mir, and one that I have been asking myself since the Kongo fight—which really didn’t show us anything new other than some improved boxing technique. How will the added size impact Mir’s ability to utilize effective BJJ?

Any time you add that much mass there is bound to be an adverse effect on flexibility.

This is a very dangerous fight for Mir in my opinion because on paper he has more “proven” tools to work with but Carwin just needs to exploit one small opening to end the fight.

I am confident though that Mir will come out of this one as the winner. Carwin has more power but Mir is the better boxer. Carwin is the better wrestler but Mir is the better all-round grappler.

Outside of a big punch, I don’t see where Carwin has the advantage.

E. Spencer Kyte

That one big punch is all he needs though—that's what I never understand in debates like this. He's shown time and again that one shot will end your night, yet we always wonder what else he has. Junior dos Santos hasn't shown anything outside of his powerful boxing, but we're ready to declare him fit for a title shot. That one big punch is far more dangerous than Mir's submission game—if the former champ can't bring the fight to the floor.

This is a trap fight for Mir in my books—if he beats Carwin, many will say Shane didn't belong in the first place, but if he loses, the trilogy with Lesnar gets shelved. I don't know if Mir can hang in there on his feet with Carwin throwing those loaded lunch pails at him, but I sure am stoked to find out.

Robert Gardner

I think we can all agree that this is a huge test for Carwin as well as a trap fight for Mir but who wins and how?

I'm going with Mir via submission in the 2nd round. I'm just not yet sold on the Carwin hype.

Joe Schafer

Surely you're not trying to convince us that Carwin's one power punch is more dangerous and versatile than Dos Santos technically sound boxing? 

The latter has proven otherwise in the UFC—just ask Werdum, Struve, Cro-Cop, Yvel, and now Gonzaga. He has a better chance of beating Mir than Carwin does; he even has a great chance of beating Carwin as well.

Enough about that though...ha.

I'm not sold on Carwin yet either. I think Mir has plenty of experience submitting big guys, Carwin will be no different. Mir by submission in the first.

E. Spencer Kyte

I'm not saying Carwin's power is better than dos Santos' boxing, just that well documented one-punch knockout power isn't something to take lightly. When you've never had to go beyond the halfway point of the first round through 11 professional bouts, that's saying something; no matter whom you've been facing.

Mir's renewed confidence in his stand-up will be the death of him. It only takes one punch and I don't think Mir can dodge frying pan-sized bullets all night. Carwin via T/KO, Round 2.